NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Vancouver Grizzlies	84		Excitement	5.3 [728]		MVP	Dale Ellis (DEN): +3.1%
Denver Nuggets	94		Comeback	1.0 [1025]		LVP	Roy Rogers (VAN): -8.1%

Vancouver Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bryant Reeves	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01	0.04	-0.02	0.01	12	65%	0.06	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.02
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.03	-0.01	20	51%	0.02	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Eric Mobley	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.02	-0.03	0.00	2	87%	0.04	1	-0.05	4	75%	-0.01
Lee Mayberry	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	4	37%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Blue Edwards	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	0.00	0.01	4	60%	0.04	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Anthony Peeler	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	12	46%	-0.00	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Pete Chilcutt	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.04	-0.00	3	50%	0.01	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Greg Anthony	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	10	41%	-0.05	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Lawrence Moten	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.00	-0.00	3	25%	-0.04	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Roy Rogers	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	7	29%	-0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dale Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.02	-0.02	15	47%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
LaPhonso Ellis	0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.03	0.00	20	50%	0.06	2	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Ricky Pierce	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.01	9	53%	0.04	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Ervin Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	6	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tom Hammonds	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brooks Thompson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darvin Ham	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04	-0.04	-0.10	0.00	-0.07	23	40%	0.01	2	-0.05	4	50%	0.01
Bryant Stith	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.02	8	31%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mark Jackson	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.05	-0.01	15	50%	0.03	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.0	2.3	22.6	16.4	22.2	1.7	28.0	114.2
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +14.0%

VAN -1.0%

DEN +18.1%

DEN +16.6%

DEN +2.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	VAN	DEN	NBA	VAN	DEN	NBA
this game	15.7	16.8	15.6	94.4	106.8	104.4
season	16.3	15.2		97.9	102.3
opponent	15.3	15.5		108.8	109.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
VAN	16.8	16.0	15.9	14.2	15.7
DEN	13.8	15.3	20.1	18.5	16.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Vancouver Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eric Mobley	25	24	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	-0.21	6	-16	22	14.6	16.1	-1.50	20.0	15.6	4.36
Pete Chilcutt	24	24	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.06	-2	-8	6	15.2	15.9	-0.64	15.7	17.2	-1.54
Lawrence Moten	33	33	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.19	1	-11	12	15.4	15.9	-0.52	15.8	17.4	-1.57
Lee Mayberry	41	41	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.00	-8	-2	-6	16.8	14.8	1.92	17.2	16.5	0.73
Roy Rogers	47	47	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.03	-7	-3	-4	16.3	15.0	1.27	15.5	18.3	-2.79
Greg Anthony	48	47	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.21	-2	-8	6	14.8	16.8	-1.92	16.5	17.2	-0.73
Blue Edwards	47	45	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.12	-5	-5	0	14.6	17.0	-2.47	16.5	17.2	-0.74
Anthony Peeler	56	55	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.02	-11	1	-12	15.9	15.4	0.52	17.4	15.8	1.57
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	59	60	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.11	-8	-2	-6	16.1	14.9	1.24	17.0	16.4	0.69
Bryant Reeves	65	64	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.08	-14	4	-18	16.3	14.0	2.30	17.1	16.2	0.85

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bryant Stith	63	64	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.14	15	-5	20	17.4	15.5	1.89	16.3	14.1	2.22
LaPhonso Ellis	60	62	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.11	16	-6	22	17.4	15.6	1.74	16.0	15.1	0.82
Mark Jackson	81	83	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.13	14	-4	18	16.8	16.9	-0.03	15.8	14.8	0.95
Antonio McDyess	64	63	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.21	6	4	2	17.0	16.4	0.63	15.9	15.3	0.58
Ervin Johnson	63	65	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.06	8	2	6	16.7	17.2	-0.57	16.8	12.8	4.01
Dale Ellis	48	49	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.16	4	6	-2	16.4	17.3	-0.91	14.3	17.4	-3.14
Darvin Ham	6	6	0.10	0.40	-0.31	-0.05	5	5	0	12.3	17.2	-4.83	20.8	15.3	5.48
Brooks Thompson	7	6	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.08	-4	14	-18	16.9	16.8	0.03	14.8	15.8	-0.95
Ricky Pierce	25	25	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.07	-5	15	-20	15.5	17.4	-1.89	14.1	16.3	-2.22
Tom Hammonds	23	22	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.13	-9	19	-28	17.4	16.6	0.76	13.1	16.6	-3.49

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.64,0.66,0.65,0.64,0.59,0.63,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.68,0.66,0.75,0.73,0.78,0.77,0.77,0.74,0.74,0.75,0.75,0.82,0.81,0.8,0.8,0.83,0.86,0.91,0.9,0.9,0.82,0.88,0.91,0.92,0.9,0.88,0.84,0.85,0.83,0.76,0.83,0.96,0.95,0.95,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 101, DAL 103	0.5,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.61,0.65,0.64,0.59,0.59,0.65,0.64,0.6,0.66,0.74,0.76,0.77,0.75,0.76,0.72,0.66,0.69,0.8,0.77,0.78,0.75,0.74,0.82,0.82,0.81,0.86,0.87,0.91,0.94,0.93,0.96,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.96,0.86,0.85,0.78,0.85,0.87,0.92,0.96,1,0.98,1	95.3%
ATL 81, MIA 94	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.66,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.61,0.64,0.66,0.7,0.74,0.69,0.77,0.77,0.73,0.78,0.79,0.82,0.86,0.83,0.84,0.86,0.81,0.82,0.87,0.85,0.84,0.79,0.8,0.92,0.87,0.86,0.87,0.87,0.87,0.91,0.86,0.77,0.74,0.71,0.78,0.93,0.96,0.96,1,1	95.1%
SAS 87, MEM 95	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.53,0.62,0.65,0.63,0.63,0.67,0.67,0.66,0.7,0.74,0.74,0.73,0.79,0.8,0.82,0.85,0.83,0.79,0.81,0.81,0.86,0.88,0.88,0.87,0.85,0.81,0.91,0.9,0.84,0.85,0.84,0.85,0.9,0.87,0.82,0.86,0.85,0.83,0.76,0.83,0.89,0.98,0.99,1,1	94.9%