NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	101		Excitement	4.4 [938]		MVP	Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): +22.7%
Dallas Mavericks	103		Comeback	1.0 [1120]		LVP	Antonio McDyess (DET): -11.9%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tayshaun Prince	0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07	0.08	-0.01	0.00	26	51%	0.07	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Walter Herrmann	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Maxiell	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.04	-0.00	0.03	3	71%	0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Arron Afflalo	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01	0.06	-0.01	0.04	12	67%	0.05	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Will Bynum	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.07,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0	0.04	-0.03	0.01	14	59%	0.08	2	-0.08	4	75%	-0.01
Amir Johnson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kwame Brown	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0.01	3	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Rodney Stuckey	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	19	38%	-0.04	0	0.00	7	100%	0.03
Antonio McDyess	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.08	-0.03	0.02	14	33%	-0.10	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.23,0.23,0.2,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.15	0.07	-0.00	20	62%	0.23	0	0.00	8	62%	-0.00
James Singleton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.08	0.03	-0.01	5	92%	0.13	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Erick Dampier	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.09	0.02	0.00	7	73%	0.12	1	-0.01	8	75%	-0.00
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.02	0.02	11	64%	0.12	2	-0.05	6	100%	0.04
Antoine Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	-0.00	0.00	6	69%	0.07	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.01
Brandon Bass	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	7	75%	0.09	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Jose Juan Barea	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.01	-0.02	5	50%	0.03	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Green	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Kidd	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	-0.01	-0.02	6	17%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.1	2.0	29.6	15.8	24.2	2.3	36.5	136.5
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +61.0%

DAL +5.6%

DET -15.5%

DET -1.8%

DAL +0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	DAL	NBA	DET	DAL	NBA
this game	17.9	15.5	15.5	117.4	119.8	106.4
season	16.9	15.6		104.9	108.9
opponent	15.4	15.7		107.1	106.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	18.6	17.4	19.4	16.5	17.9
DAL	14.1	15.3	16.6	16.3	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Amir Johnson	2	3	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	0.02	-1	-1	0	17.0	18.0	-0.96	17.7	15.5	2.20
Walter Herrmann	17	18	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.01	-3	1	-4	16.5	18.3	-1.83	14.6	15.8	-1.18
Will Bynum	42	43	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.42	8	-10	18	17.4	18.5	-1.14	15.5	15.6	-0.12
Kwame Brown	41	41	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.12	-3	1	-4	17.8	18.1	-0.36	15.8	15.4	0.40
Jason Maxiell	46	45	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.12	-6	4	-10	19.5	16.2	3.26	15.7	15.4	0.35
Antonio McDyess	68	68	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.46	4	-6	10	18.4	16.3	2.03	15.8	14.6	1.25
Arron Afflalo	72	73	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.35	-2	0	-2	17.2	22.0	-4.85	15.4	16.4	-0.99
Rodney Stuckey	64	62	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.36	-2	0	-2	18.4	16.6	1.75	15.5	15.7	-0.28
Tayshaun Prince	78	77	-0.53	0.03	-0.57	-0.39	-5	3	-8	17.8	19.4	-1.58	15.5	16.1	-0.63

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dirk Nowitzki	69	68	0.66	-0.16	0.81	0.33	11	-9	20	15.4	15.9	-0.49	18.1	17.2	0.91
James Singleton	60	60	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.40	6	-4	10	15.9	14.7	1.28	17.8	18.3	-0.58
Jose Juan Barea	44	45	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.05	10	-8	18	15.2	15.9	-0.70	19.0	16.8	2.17
Erick Dampier	57	57	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.28	0	2	-2	16.7	13.2	3.48	19.1	15.8	3.29
Jason Kidd	54	53	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.36	-3	5	-8	15.4	15.7	-0.32	17.6	18.5	-0.93
Jason Terry	59	60	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.44	-7	9	-16	15.3	16.0	-0.72	17.1	19.8	-2.67
Antoine Wright	53	53	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.21	-3	5	-8	14.7	16.9	-2.21	17.5	18.7	-1.27
Brandon Bass	34	34	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.15	-4	6	-10	15.4	15.6	-0.17	17.4	18.3	-0.93

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.61,0.65,0.64,0.59,0.59,0.65,0.64,0.6,0.66,0.74,0.76,0.77,0.75,0.76,0.72,0.66,0.69,0.8,0.77,0.78,0.75,0.74,0.82,0.82,0.81,0.86,0.87,0.91,0.94,0.93,0.96,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.96,0.86,0.85,0.78,0.85,0.87,0.92,0.96,1,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 107, BOS 112	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.58,0.61,0.6,0.57,0.59,0.61,0.65,0.62,0.71,0.7,0.76,0.71,0.8,0.81,0.83,0.72,0.68,0.64,0.72,0.73,0.75,0.78,0.76,0.88,0.93,0.89,0.81,0.87,0.95,0.95,0.94,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.92,0.88,0.86,0.88,0.86,0.8,0.87,0.93,0.97,0.94,0.95,1	95.6%
VAN 84, DEN 94	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.64,0.66,0.65,0.64,0.59,0.63,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.68,0.66,0.75,0.73,0.78,0.77,0.77,0.74,0.74,0.75,0.75,0.82,0.81,0.8,0.8,0.83,0.86,0.91,0.9,0.9,0.82,0.88,0.91,0.92,0.9,0.88,0.84,0.85,0.83,0.76,0.83,0.96,0.95,0.95,1,1	95.3%
OKC 111, SAS 120	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.62,0.64,0.63,0.66,0.63,0.63,0.63,0.66,0.65,0.62,0.69,0.67,0.69,0.78,0.72,0.75,0.76,0.72,0.75,0.75,0.8,0.77,0.82,0.91,0.91,0.86,0.95,0.98,0.97,0.93,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.95,0.94,0.91,0.88,0.89,0.91,0.94,0.91,0.99,1,1,1	94.9%