NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	111		Excitement	4.7 [706]		MVP	James Harden (OKC): +20.1%
San Antonio Spurs	120		Comeback	1.0 [865]		LVP	Kendrick Perkins (OKC): -11.7%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Harden	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.2	0.23	0.02	0.05	13	77%	0.20	0	0.00	13	77%	0.01
Russell Westbrook	0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.08	-0.01	0.02	24	51%	0.05	0	0.00	5	80%	0.01
Kevin Durant	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.1,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.17	-0.03	0.09	17	74%	0.11	3	-0.07	8	100%	0.03
Nazr Mohammed	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Thabo Sefolosha	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Daequan Cook	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Collison	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Serge Ibaka	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.11	0.02	-0.01	11	31%	-0.06	2	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Derek Fisher	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.04	0.01	0.06	11	38%	-0.07	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.01
Kendrick Perkins	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.13	-0.02	-0.02	5	25%	-0.03	4	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.22	0.02	0.05	21	77%	0.22	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.09	0.01	0.00	11	67%	0.11	2	-0.01	8	87%	0.02
Kawhi Leonard	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09	0.09	0.12	0.00	0.04	12	72%	0.12	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Boris Diaw	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.00	-0.01	5	90%	0.07	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.00	-0.04	4	37%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Bonner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	67%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Tiago Splitter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	1	57%	0.03	0	0.00	12	50%	-0.03
Gary Neal	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	150%	0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
James Anderson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Green	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.01	10	50%	0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.13	0.02	-0.06	11	34%	-0.01	3	-0.04	10	70%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.7	3.7	32.6	20.3	37.1	2.5	41.3	164.1
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +58.4%

OKC -10.6%

OKC -1.6%

OKC -2.1%

SAS +5.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	SAS	NBA	OKC	SAS	NBA
this game	13.4	15.9	15.6	115.6	120.0	102.8
season	14.7	15.3		107.9	109.1
opponent	15.2	15.8		101.5	101.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
OKC	15.8	18.0	11.7	9.3	13.4
SAS	14.2	15.6	15.0	18.8	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nick Collison	18	19	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.02	-3	-6	3	16.9	12.6	4.33	12.2	16.8	-4.63
Derek Fisher	54	56	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.39	9	-18	27	12.1	15.2	-3.09	16.0	15.7	0.29
Nazr Mohammed	9	8	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.08	-7	-2	-5	21.1	12.6	8.48	13.9	16.1	-2.21
Daequan Cook	10	9	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.02	-5	-4	-1	19.6	12.7	6.89	13.6	16.1	-2.59
James Harden	69	71	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.28	3	-12	15	12.4	16.0	-3.58	16.2	15.3	0.84
Thabo Sefolosha	29	32	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	0.01	-10	1	-11	15.2	12.6	2.60	15.6	16.0	-0.42
Kendrick Perkins	49	51	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	0.06	-14	5	-19	14.1	12.7	1.34	15.6	16.2	-0.66
Russell Westbrook	82	87	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.27	-3	-6	3	12.4	19.4	-7.03	16.2	13.7	2.55
Kevin Durant	84	88	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.23	-6	-3	-3	12.9	17.2	-4.27	16.1	14.8	1.22
Serge Ibaka	76	79	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.17	-9	0	-9	13.3	13.8	-0.47	16.8	12.7	4.11

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Duncan	74	70	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.03	16	-7	23	17.1	12.6	4.50	12.9	14.9	-2.00
Tony Parker	80	76	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.11	13	-4	17	16.8	12.2	4.58	13.6	12.6	1.04
Danny Green	53	49	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.04	14	-5	19	16.7	15.0	1.68	15.2	11.6	3.63
Kawhi Leonard	73	69	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.15	9	0	9	16.9	13.2	3.68	13.0	14.5	-1.47
Boris Diaw	55	54	0.34	0.16	0.18	-0.01	12	-3	15	16.3	15.4	0.89	13.3	13.6	-0.38
Manu Ginobili	55	53	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.23	-3	12	-15	15.9	15.9	0.04	11.6	15.7	-4.03
Stephen Jackson	27	27	0.08	0.42	-0.33	0.08	0	9	-9	13.2	16.9	-3.68	14.5	13.0	1.47
Matt Bonner	37	35	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.20	-4	13	-17	13.9	17.1	-3.20	14.0	13.1	0.95
Gary Neal	21	21	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.12	-4	13	-17	12.4	16.8	-4.41	12.5	13.7	-1.22
James Anderson	1	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	11	-13	11.0	16.0	-4.96	6.0	13.5	-7.51
Tiago Splitter	24	25	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.17	-6	15	-21	12.9	16.9	-3.94	15.2	12.8	2.45

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.62,0.64,0.63,0.66,0.63,0.63,0.63,0.66,0.65,0.62,0.69,0.67,0.69,0.78,0.72,0.75,0.76,0.72,0.75,0.75,0.8,0.77,0.82,0.91,0.91,0.86,0.95,0.98,0.97,0.93,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.95,0.94,0.91,0.88,0.89,0.91,0.94,0.91,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHH 79, SAS 93	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.57,0.66,0.59,0.66,0.71,0.69,0.69,0.71,0.68,0.68,0.72,0.68,0.75,0.78,0.74,0.73,0.76,0.72,0.75,0.79,0.8,0.79,0.82,0.89,0.93,0.94,0.97,0.96,0.95,0.96,0.95,0.93,0.96,0.95,0.96,0.98,0.94,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1	96.1%
BOS 93, LAC 102	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.63,0.64,0.67,0.61,0.65,0.66,0.6,0.65,0.62,0.69,0.71,0.69,0.76,0.76,0.73,0.75,0.67,0.72,0.73,0.78,0.84,0.79,0.8,0.87,0.93,0.94,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.92,0.92,0.96,0.89,0.91,0.96,0.96,0.87,0.86,0.9,0.98,1,1	96.1%
DET 86, POR 95	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.6,0.61,0.61,0.66,0.65,0.68,0.64,0.66,0.64,0.68,0.71,0.73,0.69,0.68,0.64,0.71,0.72,0.73,0.7,0.78,0.79,0.88,0.92,0.91,0.93,0.96,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.96,0.96,0.94,0.87,0.9,0.93,0.97,0.94,0.85,0.94,0.93,0.96,1,1,1	96.0%