NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Charlotte Hornets	79		Excitement	3.2 [1106]		MVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): +7.8%
San Antonio Spurs	93		Comeback	1.0 [1160]		LVP	Jamal Mashburn (CHH): -11.0%

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Otis Thorpe	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Robinson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.04	0.01	-0.04	8	37%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Eldridge Recasner	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamaal Magloire	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	0.00	0.01	5	62%	0.00	1	-0.01	3	67%	-0.01
Baron Davis	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	10	59%	0.01	3	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Elden Campbell	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.00	-0.01	13	40%	-0.04	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
P.J. Brown	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.01	0.01	7	31%	-0.06	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
David Wesley	-0.11	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.06	-0.01	0.03	11	46%	-0.05	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Jamal Mashburn	-0.11	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.10	-0.01	-0.00	21	46%	-0.02	4	-0.09	6	83%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Duncan	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.09	-0.01	0.00	19	68%	0.14	3	-0.06	12	100%	0.05
Derek Anderson	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	0.00	0.00	11	67%	0.08	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Sean Elliott	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.03	3	56%	0.01	1	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Danny Ferry	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.06	0.00	-0.06	8	44%	0.03	3	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Terry Porter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	5	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shawnelle Scott	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Avery Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.09	0.00	-0.06	5	20%	-0.01	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	0.02	4	64%	-0.01	2	-0.03	6	83%	0.00
David Robinson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	0.00	6	50%	-0.03	2	-0.03	8	75%	-0.00
Samaki Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.12	-0.00	-0.03	3	50%	-0.01	5	-0.08	4	75%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.3	1.8	27.1	16.8	25.2	1.8	35.1	130.0
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +24.7%

SAS +13.6%

SAS +10.6%

SAS +0.7%

SAS +0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHH	SAS	NBA	CHH	SAS	NBA
this game	15.5	16.0	15.5	86.8	101.1	100.9
season	15.8	15.9		99.7	103.4
opponent	15.5	15.6		96.5	97.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHH	14.5	16.4	18.5	13.2	15.5
SAS	15.5	17.0	15.8	15.6	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eldridge Recasner	4	6	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.02	1	-15	16	9.0	15.8	-6.79	16.8	15.9	0.91
Jamaal Magloire	36	37	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	-0.34	11	-25	36	14.3	16.3	-1.97	16.0	16.0	0.04
Otis Thorpe	13	11	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.04	-1	-13	12	15.8	15.4	0.41	18.1	15.7	2.40
Eddie Robinson	44	42	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.28	6	-20	26	15.6	15.4	0.14	16.0	15.9	0.13
P.J. Brown	68	71	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	0.06	-16	2	-18	15.6	15.3	0.25	15.5	17.5	-2.00
Jamal Mashburn	85	87	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.11	-11	-3	-8	15.0	21.8	-6.79	15.9	17.8	-1.93
David Wesley	67	68	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	0.06	-18	4	-22	15.7	14.8	0.95	16.2	15.4	0.82
Elden Campbell	55	55	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	0.25	-25	11	-36	16.3	14.3	1.97	16.0	16.0	-0.04
Baron Davis	83	83	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.02	-17	3	-20	15.9	11.1	4.79	15.9	16.4	-0.52

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Duncan	79	79	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.03	16	-2	18	16.1	15.1	1.05	15.9	13.1	2.78
Derek Anderson	66	64	0.45	0.05	0.40	-0.08	18	-4	22	16.3	15.3	0.99	16.2	13.9	2.34
Terry Porter	39	39	0.45	0.05	0.39	-0.14	20	-6	26	15.8	16.1	-0.23	17.8	13.8	4.03
Danny Ferry	65	63	0.43	0.07	0.36	-0.04	16	-2	18	15.6	16.9	-1.24	15.7	15.0	0.71
David Robinson	43	43	0.26	0.24	0.02	-0.09	12	2	10	16.5	15.5	1.00	16.9	14.2	2.63
Samaki Walker	47	46	0.22	0.28	-0.05	0.11	4	10	-6	16.0	16.0	0.04	14.5	16.6	-2.10
Antonio Daniels	33	35	0.09	0.41	-0.31	0.18	-3	17	-20	15.6	16.2	-0.58	14.1	16.3	-2.20
Avery Johnson	53	52	0.05	0.45	-0.39	0.23	-6	20	-26	16.1	15.8	0.23	13.8	17.8	-4.03
Sean Elliott	31	31	0.04	0.46	-0.43	0.18	-5	19	-24	16.6	15.6	1.01	14.6	15.9	-1.29
Shawnelle Scott	4	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	16	-18	6.2	16.4	-10.17	7.0	15.8	-8.78

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.57,0.66,0.59,0.66,0.71,0.69,0.69,0.71,0.68,0.68,0.72,0.68,0.75,0.78,0.74,0.73,0.76,0.72,0.75,0.79,0.8,0.79,0.82,0.89,0.93,0.94,0.97,0.96,0.95,0.96,0.95,0.93,0.96,0.95,0.96,0.98,0.94,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 85, MEM 107	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.58,0.59,0.63,0.68,0.67,0.71,0.71,0.72,0.66,0.71,0.77,0.8,0.78,0.74,0.77,0.82,0.77,0.75,0.78,0.78,0.81,0.83,0.85,0.94,0.93,0.94,0.94,0.95,0.95,0.96,0.93,0.96,0.95,0.97,0.9,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	96.8%
GSW 97, UTA 114	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.63,0.65,0.67,0.73,0.69,0.67,0.73,0.72,0.7,0.73,0.77,0.84,0.84,0.8,0.79,0.78,0.78,0.75,0.78,0.82,0.81,0.82,0.87,0.94,0.96,0.95,0.94,0.94,0.93,0.94,0.91,0.96,0.99,0.98,0.96,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.8%
NOP 108, SAS 113	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.57,0.59,0.61,0.68,0.72,0.74,0.74,0.69,0.75,0.72,0.64,0.72,0.71,0.77,0.78,0.74,0.77,0.72,0.69,0.75,0.75,0.84,0.89,0.88,0.91,0.91,0.94,0.97,0.97,0.95,0.93,0.94,0.94,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.5%