NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	87		Excitement	4.5 [890]		MVP	Dominique Wilkins (SAS): +16.6%
San Antonio Spurs	97		Comeback	1.0 [1064]		LVP	Oliver Miller (DAL): -9.2%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Finley	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.06	0.09	0.00	0.04	12	71%	0.10	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Chris Gatling	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.02	14	66%	0.10	3	-0.08	10	70%	-0.01
A.C. Green	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	6	47%	-0.02	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Derek Harper	-0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	7	50%	0.01	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Mashburn	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	0.01	-0.02	10	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Jim Jackson	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03	-0.05	-0.03	-0.04	19	50%	0.05	3	-0.08	6	83%	0.01
Eric Montross	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Oliver Miller	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dominique Wilkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.07	0.04	-0.05	18	65%	0.22	3	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Vinny Del Negro	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.11	0.03	0.00	10	81%	0.16	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.02
Avery Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07	0.07	-0.02	0.07	-0.03	9	54%	0.08	1	-0.00	8	75%	-0.00
Monty Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.03	0.00	2	100%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vernon Maxwell	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	0.00	0.01	6	67%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sean Elliott	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.06	0.01	-0.07	15	46%	0.04	2	-0.02	5	60%	-0.01
Cory Alexander	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Will Perdue	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	60%	-0.00	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.04
Carl Herrera	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Greg Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.02	4	25%	-0.04	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.3	2.4	27.5	15.4	21.5	2.4	35.6	128.2
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +40.1%

DAL -4.7%

DAL -1.3%

SAS +11.0%

SAS +4.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	SAS	NBA	DAL	SAS	NBA
this game	16.5	19.7	15.6	108.7	122.8	104.4
season	15.9	16.8		99.1	100.8
opponent	15.4	15.7		109.4	105.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	17.5	16.0	17.6	15.0	16.5
SAS	16.8	19.1	24.7	19.2	19.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jamal Mashburn	44	43	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.05	-1	-9	8	17.5	15.3	2.24	20.7	18.6	2.01
Oliver Miller	27	28	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.27	3	-13	16	16.3	16.6	-0.38	21.2	18.9	2.24
Michael Finley	45	43	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.19	-1	-9	8	15.2	18.2	-3.00	18.8	20.9	-2.12
Eric Montross	32	32	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	0.01	-11	1	-12	18.8	15.0	3.89	20.9	18.9	2.02
Chris Gatling	50	49	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.14	-7	-3	-4	14.9	19.2	-4.30	18.8	21.2	-2.42
A.C. Green	48	47	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.00	-12	2	-14	17.4	15.2	2.26	19.3	20.3	-1.02
Derek Harper	77	77	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.20	-9	-1	-8	16.5	16.7	-0.16	19.8	15.5	4.34
Jim Jackson	77	76	-0.55	0.04	-0.59	-0.19	-12	2	-14	16.3	21.7	-5.35	19.5	26.7	-7.21

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Sean Elliott	69	69	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.17	10	0	10	20.7	13.1	7.60	16.6	16.1	0.49
Avery Johnson	71	72	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.21	7	3	4	20.1	16.9	3.18	16.4	17.9	-1.51
Vinny Del Negro	58	59	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.25	4	6	-2	19.4	20.6	-1.14	15.3	20.0	-4.66
Will Perdue	52	52	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.13	6	4	2	18.8	21.4	-2.60	17.0	15.7	1.28
Dominique Wilkins	50	50	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.18	3	7	-4	19.9	19.4	0.56	15.6	18.0	-2.38
Carl Herrera	28	28	0.23	0.27	-0.05	-0.04	9	1	8	18.4	20.5	-2.02	18.4	15.5	2.95
Greg Anderson	23	26	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.05	4	6	-2	21.8	18.9	2.89	15.4	17.0	-1.61
Vernon Maxwell	21	21	0.13	0.37	-0.23	-0.04	6	4	2	20.6	19.4	1.14	20.0	15.3	4.66
Cory Alexander	8	8	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.00	3	7	-4	16.9	20.1	-3.18	17.9	16.4	1.51
Monty Williams	15	15	0.07	0.43	-0.37	0.13	-2	12	-14	17.0	20.4	-3.38	15.9	16.6	-0.71

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.62,0.69,0.71,0.65,0.68,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.63,0.68,0.71,0.71,0.69,0.75,0.8,0.86,0.86,0.91,0.89,0.85,0.81,0.82,0.85,0.84,0.82,0.78,0.79,0.78,0.87,0.93,0.86,0.85,0.84,0.81,0.95,0.99,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 100, MIA 109	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.57,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.68,0.66,0.63,0.64,0.68,0.72,0.66,0.75,0.75,0.67,0.72,0.75,0.74,0.75,0.77,0.84,0.84,0.86,0.9,0.9,0.91,0.9,0.85,0.88,0.84,0.77,0.74,0.85,0.87,0.92,0.91,0.71,0.85,0.83,0.8,0.93,0.97,1,1,1,1	95.1%
MEM 95, SAS 104	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.6,0.56,0.6,0.57,0.67,0.67,0.63,0.63,0.64,0.65,0.64,0.64,0.6,0.53,0.61,0.65,0.66,0.71,0.74,0.79,0.7,0.75,0.79,0.84,0.87,0.89,0.88,0.79,0.77,0.76,0.79,0.8,0.75,0.74,0.81,0.9,0.76,0.81,0.73,0.84,0.95,0.92,0.93,0.98,1,1	94.6%
MEM 95, NOP 106	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.63,0.64,0.61,0.62,0.63,0.63,0.68,0.65,0.68,0.7,0.74,0.68,0.69,0.64,0.6,0.51,0.63,0.66,0.69,0.72,0.73,0.73,0.84,0.83,0.82,0.83,0.83,0.76,0.74,0.8,0.81,0.86,0.84,0.91,0.9,0.91,0.93,0.89,0.95,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1	94.4%