NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	107		Excitement	5.4 [762]		MVP	Antawn Jamison (WAS): +25.8%
Washington Wizards	117		Comeback	1.1 [1215]		LVP	Shareef Abdur-Rahim (SAC): -8.0%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Metta World Peace	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.02	0.02	19	70%	0.22	2	-0.07	5	40%	-0.03
Brad Miller	0.07	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	-0.00	-0.01	10	67%	0.12	3	-0.06	7	86%	0.02
Corliss Williamson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	0	75%	0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Jason Hart	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bonzi Wells	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	7	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.05
Kevin Martin	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.05	-0.02	0.07	16	54%	0.00	1	-0.04	5	60%	-0.02
Kenny Thomas	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	0.01	7	53%	0.04	3	-0.10	5	40%	-0.03
Mike Bibby	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07	-0.10	-0.01	-0.04	16	43%	0.04	5	-0.11	5	80%	0.01
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	5	20%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antawn Jamison	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.14,0.16,0.14,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26	0.26	0.15	0.07	-0.04	21	67%	0.28	2	-0.02	4	50%	-0.01
Gilbert Arenas	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.04	-0.01	17	53%	0.13	3	-0.06	9	78%	-0.00
Etan Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.01	0.01	2	87%	0.06	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Calvin Booth	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	1	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jared Jeffries	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	4	75%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Donell Taylor	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.01	0.00	6	71%	0.08	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.00
Antonio Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	0.01	0.03	5	55%	0.02	0	0.00	12	100%	0.04
Caron Butler	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.02,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0	0.00	-0.07	0.04	-0.04	22	46%	0.09	4	-0.08	4	75%	-0.00
Michael Ruffin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brendan Haywood	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.1	1.7	28.2	15.7	24.3	2.4	41.5	136.0
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +20.1%

WAS +11.3%

SAC -0.3%

WAS +19.9%

SAC -1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	WAS	NBA	SAC	WAS	NBA
this game	14.4	15.6	15.6	111.5	121.9	104.4
season	15.3	15.1		104.7	107.4
opponent	15.6	15.5		105.5	103.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	12.2	14.3	17.5	14.4	14.4
WAS	15.0	17.0	14.6	15.6	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Hart	10	10	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.08	-6	-4	-2	15.2	14.4	0.84	14.2	15.7	-1.51
Corliss Williamson	10	9	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.01	-4	-6	2	16.4	14.2	2.18	16.8	15.4	1.35
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	29	28	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.10	-5	-5	0	16.1	13.7	2.37	17.7	14.7	3.00
Bonzi Wells	50	52	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.10	-6	-4	-2	14.7	14.2	0.48	14.6	16.6	-2.00
Brad Miller	75	77	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.21	-3	-7	4	13.7	17.1	-3.45	15.2	16.8	-1.61
Kevin Martin	83	82	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.26	-3	-7	4	14.2	16.1	-1.88	15.5	15.6	-0.02
Kenny Thomas	76	76	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.17	-6	-4	-2	14.5	14.4	0.06	15.2	17.0	-1.89
Mike Bibby	74	74	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.12	-8	-2	-6	13.2	18.5	-5.32	15.3	16.5	-1.23
Metta World Peace	73	72	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.17	-9	-1	-8	15.5	11.0	4.59	16.5	12.8	3.68

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Antawn Jamison	88	90	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.02	17	-7	24	15.6	14.9	0.74	14.6	12.8	1.72
Caron Butler	96	96	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.21	10	0	10	15.6	0.0	15.55	14.4	0.0	14.45
Gilbert Arenas	83	82	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.21	6	4	2	15.1	18.2	-3.10	14.4	14.9	-0.48
Antonio Daniels	56	56	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.22	2	8	-6	16.2	14.7	1.50	14.2	14.8	-0.65
Michael Ruffin	30	28	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.35	-3	13	-16	15.7	15.5	0.26	12.8	15.1	-2.35
Donell Taylor	39	38	0.21	0.29	-0.09	0.03	6	4	2	14.9	16.0	-1.06	15.3	13.9	1.39
Brendan Haywood	30	31	0.17	0.33	-0.15	-0.03	7	3	4	14.9	15.8	-0.90	14.8	14.3	0.48
Etan Thomas	22	22	0.15	0.35	-0.21	0.03	4	6	-2	17.4	15.0	2.35	13.7	14.7	-0.93
Jared Jeffries	18	19	0.13	0.37	-0.23	-0.07	7	3	4	14.6	15.8	-1.16	12.7	14.9	-2.13
Calvin Booth	18	18	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.07	-6	16	-22	16.1	15.4	0.62	18.0	13.6	4.37

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.57,0.52,0.58,0.62,0.55,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.69,0.77,0.75,0.73,0.77,0.77,0.75,0.81,0.75,0.78,0.82,0.84,0.9,0.89,0.89,0.86,0.9,0.9,0.86,0.85,0.74,0.79,0.85,0.85,0.88,0.8,0.77,0.92,0.91,0.93,0.98,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 100, MIA 109	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.57,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.68,0.66,0.63,0.64,0.68,0.72,0.66,0.75,0.75,0.67,0.72,0.75,0.74,0.75,0.77,0.84,0.84,0.86,0.9,0.9,0.91,0.9,0.85,0.88,0.84,0.77,0.74,0.85,0.87,0.92,0.91,0.71,0.85,0.83,0.8,0.93,0.97,1,1,1,1	95.2%
LAL 86, UTA 95	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.56,0.61,0.62,0.61,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.66,0.68,0.7,0.79,0.79,0.8,0.82,0.83,0.8,0.77,0.77,0.73,0.78,0.79,0.84,0.85,0.85,0.81,0.84,0.88,0.84,0.73,0.73,0.75,0.81,0.7,0.75,0.8,0.85,0.86,0.95,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1	94.9%
LAL 102, MIA 109	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.62,0.64,0.66,0.65,0.65,0.64,0.57,0.62,0.66,0.71,0.73,0.76,0.72,0.71,0.8,0.79,0.77,0.8,0.8,0.83,0.9,0.82,0.83,0.86,0.89,0.89,0.89,0.87,0.81,0.91,0.87,0.87,0.82,0.83,0.85,0.87,0.91,0.86,0.81,0.93,0.95,0.98,1	94.8%