NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	107		Excitement	10.2 [51]		MVP	Serge Ibaka (OKC): +39.0%
Portland Trail Blazers	106		Comeback	13.3 [71]		LVP	Kevin Durant (OKC): -30.7%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Serge Ibaka	0.39	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.39	0.10	0.29	0.00	4	92%	0.39	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.06
James Harden	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.03	0.14	-0.00	5	64%	0.22	1	-0.05	1	100%	0.02
Jeff Green	0.08	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.06	0.01	-0.00	13	61%	0.12	2	-0.04	5	100%	0.03
Thabo Sefolosha	0.04	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	-0.01	-0.00	5	70%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cole Aldrich	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nenad Krstic	-0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	6	50%	0.01	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Eric Maynor	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	-0.02	2	0%	-0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Russell Westbrook	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.17,-0.17,-0.1,-0.1,0.02,-0.06,-0.12,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.01	-0.15	0.02	22	52%	-0.08	4	-0.10	10	100%	0.06
Kevin Durant	-0.31	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.08,0.13,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.05,0,0,-0.11,-0.11,-0.21,-0.21,-0.29,-0.31	-0.01	-0.30	-0.00	24	54%	-0.06	5	-0.25	4	100%	0.06

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marcus Camby	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.03	0.00	7	76%	0.22	3	-0.15	3	33%	-0.03
Andre Miller	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.22,0.16,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.06	0.07	-0.01	18	42%	0.08	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Wesley Matthews	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03	0.03	0.06	-0.03	0.00	8	57%	0.03	0	0.00	7	71%	-0.03
Dante Cunningham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	4	40%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.07	-0.08	0.04	19	58%	-0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Armon Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05	-0.05	0.01	-0.01	0.05	3	50%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nicolas Batum	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	0.04	-0.12	-0.02	16	50%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Roy	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,-0.04,-0.31,-0.31,-0.31,-0.31,-0.4,-0.3	-0.30	-0.06	-0.25	-0.00	17	47%	-0.15	4	-0.16	6	100%	0.10

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	25.2	3.3	28.6	19.7	28.2	3.7	36.0	1.6	20.1	166.5
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	1.9	16.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +45.8%

OKC +11.5%

OKC +11.8%

POR -16.2%

POR -2.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	POR	NBA	OKC	POR	NBA
this game	16.4	16.5	15.5	110.3	110.4	105.7
season	15.0	16.5		108.8	106.7
opponent	15.7	15.6		105.6	105.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
OKC	15.4	19.2	15.0	15.8	16.6	16.4
POR	15.2	12.1	20.2	21.3	13.4	16.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Serge Ibaka	55	51	0.62	-0.12	0.75	0.42	7	-6	13	16.8	16.0	0.83	17.3	15.6	1.71
Jeff Green	83	83	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.41	5	-4	9	16.0	18.9	-2.93	17.1	12.8	4.26
Kevin Durant	96	95	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.46	3	-2	5	16.5	13.0	3.46	16.6	14.0	2.56
James Harden	45	43	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.48	1	0	1	17.1	15.8	1.24	17.0	16.1	0.89
Russell Westbrook	81	80	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.39	4	-3	7	16.2	17.6	-1.36	16.4	17.3	-0.94
Eric Maynor	25	25	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.04	1	0	1	18.1	15.8	2.23	16.0	16.7	-0.66
Thabo Sefolosha	44	46	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.20	-8	9	-17	14.8	17.7	-2.89	16.2	16.9	-0.73
Cole Aldrich	9	8	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.08	-7	8	-15	20.0	16.1	3.94	8.7	17.2	-8.49
Nenad Krstic	47	49	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	-0.11	-1	2	-3	16.3	16.5	-0.16	16.4	16.7	-0.33

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dante Cunningham	30	30	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	-0.08	2	-3	5	14.5	17.4	-2.91	16.5	16.4	0.11
Armon Johnson	22	22	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.13	2	-3	5	16.1	16.7	-0.57	17.1	16.2	0.92
Wesley Matthews	36	36	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.19	0	-1	1	14.8	17.6	-2.76	16.1	16.6	-0.58
Andre Miller	63	63	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.30	0	-1	1	17.2	15.3	1.92	16.6	16.0	0.61
Brandon Roy	84	87	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.45	3	-4	7	16.2	18.5	-2.25	16.5	16.1	0.36
Marcus Camby	76	78	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.44	2	-3	5	16.9	15.1	1.74	16.8	14.7	2.16
LaMarcus Aldridge	83	83	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.28	-8	7	-15	17.3	11.5	5.77	16.3	17.4	-1.18
Nicolas Batum	86	86	-0.67	0.17	-0.83	-0.49	-6	5	-11	16.8	14.4	2.38	16.0	20.1	-4.14

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.47,0.43,0.48,0.41,0.44,0.43,0.39,0.39,0.4,0.45,0.38,0.35,0.44,0.47,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.46,0.41,0.44,0.54,0.59,0.59,0.7,0.77,0.82,0.85,0.83,0.81,0.77,0.85,0.72,0.73,0.74,0.79,0.74,0.7,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.7,0.65,0.67,0.61,0.79,0.9,0.63,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.23,0.09,0
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 116, DET 111	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.53,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.41,0.4,0.49,0.53,0.5,0.51,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.58,0.63,0.59,0.59,0.56,0.54,0.59,0.73,0.71,0.71,0.69,0.7,0.7,0.82,0.71,0.72,0.72,0.77,0.85,0.87,0.89,0.75,0.67,0.63,0.74,0.81,0.78,0.62,0.79,0.55,0.73,0.54,0.55,0.28,0.32,0.18,0	88.9%
LAL 125, DET 119	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.43,0.37,0.31,0.36,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.61,0.54,0.59,0.61,0.66,0.72,0.72,0.63,0.62,0.6,0.7,0.67,0.71,0.79,0.8,0.86,0.8,0.87,0.85,0.9,0.81,0.75,0.76,0.73,0.78,0.67,0.78,0.64,0.64,0.57,0.72,0.46,0.39,0.37,0.05,0.17,0	88.0%
DET 105, BOS 97	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.44,0.47,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.61,0.56,0.49,0.59,0.67,0.68,0.71,0.73,0.64,0.76,0.71,0.72,0.81,0.73,0.67,0.64,0.74,0.62,0.75,0.62,0.58,0.69,0.53,0.65,0.61,0.85,0.75,0.72,0.46,0.2,0.07,0.02,0,0	88.0%