NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	95		Excitement	6.9 [454]		MVP	Chris Paul (NOH): +17.1%
New Orleans Hornets	101		Comeback	3.3 [327]		LVP	Chauncey Billups (DEN): -17.5%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Arron Afflalo	0.11	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.09	0.04	0.02	6	83%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Al Harrington	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04	-0.00	0.07	0.03	9	55%	0.09	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Nene	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.00	0.00	5	60%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Carmelo Anthony	-0.01	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.04,0.04,-0.01	0.06	-0.06	0.01	17	63%	0.13	3	-0.14	4	75%	0.00
Melvin Ely	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
J.R. Smith	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	0.02	8	55%	0.04	3	-0.09	6	83%	0.01
Ty Lawson	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	5	33%	-0.02	2	-0.04	2	0%	-0.03
Shelden Williams	-0.10	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	7	57%	0.07	4	-0.17	0	0%	0.00
Chauncey Billups	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.19,-0.17,-0.18	-0.04	-0.13	0.01	14	51%	-0.03	4	-0.14	11	91%	0.04

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Paul	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.05	0.13	0.01	14	53%	0.17	0	0.00	6	100%	0.06
Emeka Okafor	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.06	0.06	-0.01	10	59%	0.12	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Willie Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
David West	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.04	0.02	13	57%	0.09	3	-0.07	4	75%	-0.00
Jason Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,0,0,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	-0.00	3	75%	0.07	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.02
Trevor Ariza	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.02	0.00	8	52%	0.07	2	-0.05	5	40%	-0.05
Pops Mensah-Bonsu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
DJ Mbenga	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Thornton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.03	-0.00	9	56%	0.04	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Peja Stojakovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0.02	5	58%	0.02	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.00
Jerryd Bayless	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.04,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.05	-0.02	4	67%	0.07	4	-0.14	1	100%	0.00
Marco Belinelli	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.03	-0.04	0.01	8	31%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.1	2.4	34.6	16.4	23.4	2.8	35.2	140.8
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NOH +17.9%

NOH +9.4%

NOH +2.8%

NOH +25.2%

DEN -5.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	NOH	NBA	DEN	NOH	NBA
this game	15.1	15.8	15.5	103.3	107.4	105.7
season	14.3	16.2		110.7	104.6
opponent	15.9	15.5		104.4	106.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	15.1	14.4	16.7	14.6	15.1
NOH	16.9	13.9	17.6	15.4	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Carmelo Anthony	75	76	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.22	5	-11	16	15.5	13.5	2.02	15.9	15.5	0.42
Al Harrington	50	51	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.02	-3	-3	0	14.7	15.6	-0.88	15.4	16.3	-0.94
J.R. Smith	43	42	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.01	-5	-1	-4	15.1	15.1	-0.01	14.4	17.0	-2.68
Melvin Ely	12	11	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.07	-9	3	-12	14.3	15.2	-0.90	12.7	16.3	-3.53
Chauncey Billups	65	69	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.43	7	-13	20	15.1	15.1	-0.04	16.6	13.9	2.67
Shelden Williams	43	44	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.22	-2	-4	2	15.7	14.6	1.04	16.9	14.9	1.92
Ty Lawson	35	34	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	0.08	-15	9	-24	15.1	15.2	-0.10	14.5	16.6	-2.10
Nene	69	72	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.44	0	-6	6	15.1	15.0	0.10	16.4	13.9	2.52
Arron Afflalo	68	71	-0.69	0.19	-0.88	-0.45	-8	2	-10	14.8	16.0	-1.19	16.1	14.9	1.23

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Willie Green	29	28	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.05	17	-11	28	13.7	16.8	-3.16	14.4	15.5	-1.10
Marco Belinelli	44	44	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.41	4	2	2	17.5	14.4	3.08	15.2	15.0	0.25
Chris Paul	71	69	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.43	1	5	-4	16.7	13.1	3.59	15.1	15.1	0.04
Emeka Okafor	59	58	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.43	-1	7	-8	16.4	14.9	1.48	15.1	15.2	-0.14
David West	71	68	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.47	-3	9	-12	16.5	13.7	2.84	15.2	14.8	0.44
DJ Mbenga	11	12	0.22	0.28	-0.07	-0.08	10	-4	14	13.2	16.2	-3.01	15.0	15.1	-0.14
Peja Stojakovic	30	28	0.15	0.35	-0.20	-0.06	7	-1	8	14.7	16.4	-1.63	13.2	16.0	-2.79
Jerryd Bayless	31	30	0.14	0.36	-0.22	-0.15	10	-4	14	13.1	17.2	-4.14	15.1	15.1	-0.03
Pops Mensah-Bonsu	14	13	0.09	0.41	-0.33	-0.03	4	2	2	14.1	16.1	-2.08	15.3	15.1	0.22
Trevor Ariza	59	58	-0.08	0.58	-0.67	0.30	-13	19	-32	17.0	13.9	3.16	15.4	14.6	0.84
Jason Smith	14	16	-0.14	0.64	-0.79	-0.11	-1	7	-8	15.6	15.9	-0.32	17.7	14.6	3.18
Marcus Thornton	37	36	-0.18	0.68	-0.87	-0.04	-5	11	-16	14.6	16.6	-2.01	15.2	15.1	0.17

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.44,0.41,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.6,0.6,0.67,0.76,0.8,0.77,0.79,0.84,0.77,0.75,0.75,0.74,0.79,0.78,0.76,0.76,0.71,0.62,0.59,0.56,0.56,0.48,0.54,0.52,0.48,0.33,0.27,0.3,0.54,0.67,0.69,0.79,0.97,0.9,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 86, PHI 90	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.46,0.47,0.43,0.41,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.67,0.75,0.68,0.76,0.74,0.81,0.84,0.73,0.72,0.77,0.7,0.69,0.61,0.62,0.62,0.55,0.56,0.52,0.36,0.42,0.52,0.38,0.33,0.32,0.36,0.41,0.6,0.75,0.78,0.83,0.83,1	93.0%
ATL 85, DET 87	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.39,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.56,0.69,0.71,0.76,0.77,0.71,0.76,0.69,0.7,0.67,0.7,0.71,0.72,0.73,0.64,0.61,0.68,0.65,0.59,0.59,0.67,0.64,0.5,0.57,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.53,0.69,0.72,0.75,0.89,0.91,0.96,1	92.0%
MEM 92, UTA 98	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.43,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.68,0.77,0.75,0.71,0.69,0.73,0.78,0.79,0.8,0.85,0.81,0.73,0.74,0.71,0.69,0.63,0.52,0.64,0.58,0.52,0.62,0.58,0.47,0.51,0.46,0.6,0.69,0.85,0.93,0.92,1	91.4%