NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	97		Excitement	4.0 [994]		MVP	Mickael Pietrus (ORL): +16.9%
Dallas Mavericks	82		Comeback	1.2 [739]		LVP	Caron Butler (DAL): -10.1%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mickael Pietrus	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.25	0.02	0.10	8	109%	0.17	1	-0.00	6	67%	-0.01
Matt Barnes	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	-0.00	0.01	4	75%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Bass	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	0.00	0.02	5	62%	0.03	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Jameer Nelson	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.09	0.05	-0.07	14	50%	0.11	6	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	0.01	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	11	57%	0.08	3	-0.07	8	62%	-0.02
Rashard Lewis	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	6	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
JJ Redick	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vince Carter	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	0.01	0.04	17	50%	0.03	2	-0.04	4	50%	-0.00
Ryan Anderson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcin Gortat	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Williams	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.07,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.03	0.03	-0.03	22	48%	0.09	0	0.00	6	100%	0.03
Erick Dampier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	-0.00	-0.01	3	67%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jason Kidd	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	8	39%	0.00	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Jose Juan Barea	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.10	-0.00	0.13	9	89%	-0.01	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Brendan Haywood	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	0.01	7	43%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.02	-0.01	0.05	16	46%	-0.04	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Rodrigue Beaubois	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.02	0.01	3	25%	-0.04	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.00
Shawn Marion	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.01	0.01	9	22%	-0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Caron Butler	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.11	-0.01	-0.01	4	25%	-0.03	3	-0.07	4	75%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.6	3.0	31.2	20.7	28.5	2.8	28.6	139.3
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +55.0%

DAL -2.6%

ORL +0.4%

DAL -2.9%

ORL +0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	DAL	NBA	ORL	DAL	NBA
this game	16.4	16.7	15.3	111.5	94.3	106.0
season	15.4	15.2		110.1	107.2
opponent	15.5	15.9		104.6	101.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	15.4	16.2	15.3	19.1	16.4
DAL	16.6	17.2	15.3	17.7	16.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwight Howard	76	76	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.01	17	-2	19	16.4	16.9	-0.54	17.1	13.5	3.68
Jameer Nelson	66	66	0.51	-0.01	0.52	-0.05	19	-4	23	16.0	17.7	-1.62	16.1	18.3	-2.20
Vince Carter	69	69	0.46	0.04	0.43	-0.06	18	-3	21	16.0	18.1	-2.04	17.1	14.9	2.24
Rashard Lewis	57	58	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.04	11	4	7	15.6	17.9	-2.28	16.9	16.1	0.84
Matt Barnes	45	45	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.05	9	6	3	15.9	17.0	-1.18	16.1	17.3	-1.15
Mickael Pietrus	31	32	0.18	0.32	-0.14	-0.02	7	8	-1	17.7	15.7	1.93	16.9	16.5	0.43
Brandon Bass	22	22	0.16	0.34	-0.18	-0.01	6	9	-3	15.8	16.7	-0.89	16.3	16.8	-0.53
JJ Redick	31	30	0.07	0.43	-0.35	0.19	-4	19	-23	17.5	15.9	1.63	15.8	17.1	-1.32
Jason Williams	21	21	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.11	-4	19	-23	17.7	16.0	1.62	18.3	16.1	2.20
Marcin Gortat	11	11	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.05	-2	17	-19	16.9	16.4	0.54	13.5	17.1	-3.68
Ryan Anderson	6	5	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	-0.00	-2	17	-19	23.7	15.9	7.77	17.2	16.6	0.57

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rodrigue Beaubois	23	22	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.01	-3	-12	9	15.0	17.3	-2.32	15.5	16.7	-1.19
Jose Juan Barea	31	32	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.02	-6	-9	3	15.8	17.2	-1.39	17.3	15.9	1.43
Erick Dampier	46	47	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.06	-6	-9	3	16.2	17.2	-1.09	17.1	15.7	1.41
Brendan Haywood	41	40	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.00	-9	-6	-3	17.2	16.2	1.09	15.7	17.1	-1.41
Shawn Marion	52	50	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.02	-9	-6	-3	18.4	14.1	4.32	16.3	16.7	-0.42
Jason Terry	57	58	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.08	-7	-8	1	16.6	16.9	-0.31	17.3	14.7	2.57
Caron Butler	56	55	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.06	-8	-7	-1	17.3	15.5	1.74	15.7	17.6	-1.88
Dirk Nowitzki	66	68	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.09	-10	-5	-5	15.4	20.7	-5.27	16.5	16.2	0.29
Jason Kidd	63	63	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	0.05	-17	2	-19	17.2	15.3	1.84	16.2	17.1	-0.95

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.53,0.52,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.4,0.44,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.36,0.3,0.26,0.23,0.22,0.15,0.19,0.18,0.23,0.14,0.09,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 89, MIN 77	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.5,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.33,0.3,0.2,0.21,0.23,0.18,0.22,0.21,0.22,0.2,0.16,0.15,0.06,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.2%
NJN 94, IND 85	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.47,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.36,0.33,0.35,0.23,0.22,0.19,0.21,0.18,0.26,0.14,0.12,0.08,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	96.1%
DAL 102, MEM 76	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.5,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.46,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.36,0.33,0.42,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.42,0.41,0.36,0.25,0.34,0.23,0.2,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.12,0.08,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.0%