NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	89		Excitement	4.3 [942]		MVP	Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): +8.7%
Minnesota Timberwolves	77		Comeback	1.2 [1227]		LVP	Jonny Flynn (MIN): -11.7%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.08	0.06	0.05	15	59%	0.09	0	0.00	4	75%	0.04
Shawn Marion	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	11	58%	0.05	2	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Jason Terry	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.04	0.01	-0.05	15	40%	0.01	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Drew Gooden	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.03	8	41%	0.01	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.00
James Singleton	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.08	0.00	-0.08	1	0%	0.00	3	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Carroll	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.05	0.00	-0.05	2	0%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Quinton Ross	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kris Humphries	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.03	8	47%	-0.01	0	0.00	3	100%	0.00
Rodrigue Beaubois	-0.02	0,0,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	7	56%	0.03	3	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Jason Kidd	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	5	60%	0.02	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Jose Juan Barea	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.00	0.03	10	30%	-0.07	0	0.00	3	100%	0.00
Erick Dampier	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	1	0%	-0.02	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brian Cardinal	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.04	0.00	0.04	2	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Hart	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Damien Wilkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	1	0%	-0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nathan Jawai	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	9	48%	0.02	2	-0.03	3	67%	-0.01
Sasha Pavlovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	-0.00	-0.03	7	29%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Gomes	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	12	38%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Corey Brewer	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	13	36%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Wayne Ellington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	0.02	9	39%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Hollins	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	9	25%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Ramon Sessions	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.10	-0.00	-0.03	8	29%	-0.06	1	-0.01	8	62%	-0.01
Oleksiy Pecherov	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.01	0.03	9	41%	-0.05	2	-0.05	4	75%	0.00
Jonny Flynn	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.08	-0.04	-0.01	9	46%	-0.00	4	-0.11	6	50%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.4	1.8	27.3	15.6	29.2	2.8	29.3	129.4
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +29.3%

DAL +8.1%

DAL +9.8%

DAL +4.0%

MIN -1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	MIN	NBA	DAL	MIN	NBA
this game	14.7	14.4	15.3	89.9	77.8	106.0
season	15.2	14.7		107.2	100.1
opponent	14.8	15.5		109.8	104.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	16.4	15.2	13.1	14.3	14.7
MIN	14.9	15.5	13.6	13.9	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Terry	60	62	0.49	0.01	0.49	-0.03	18	-6	24	14.9	14.3	0.68	14.5	14.3	0.25
Shawn Marion	65	63	0.45	0.05	0.41	-0.10	19	-7	26	14.4	15.3	-0.91	14.5	14.4	0.10
Dirk Nowitzki	60	61	0.45	0.05	0.39	-0.05	17	-5	22	13.8	16.1	-2.28	14.5	14.3	0.22
Jason Kidd	56	57	0.43	0.07	0.36	-0.04	16	-4	20	13.9	15.6	-1.70	14.8	13.9	0.86
Erick Dampier	44	43	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.03	9	3	6	13.3	15.7	-2.39	15.1	13.9	1.14
Drew Gooden	36	40	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.07	4	8	-4	17.1	13.3	3.75	14.9	14.1	0.84
Jose Juan Barea	39	37	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.05	1	11	-10	17.2	13.0	4.19	14.5	14.4	0.06
Kris Humphries	31	29	0.07	0.43	-0.37	0.04	1	11	-10	16.1	14.0	2.04	13.0	15.0	-1.97
Quinton Ross	34	36	0.05	0.45	-0.41	0.25	-7	19	-26	15.3	14.4	0.91	14.4	14.5	-0.10
James Singleton	27	25	0.01	0.49	-0.47	0.22	-7	19	-26	14.0	14.9	-0.87	13.9	14.6	-0.67
Rodrigue Beaubois	35	34	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.18	-6	18	-24	13.1	15.5	-2.40	14.4	14.4	-0.06
Matt Carroll	8	8	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.15	-5	17	-22	12.2	14.9	-2.63	11.1	14.7	-3.59

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Damien Wilkins	12	12	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.18	6	-18	24	13.7	14.5	-0.77	13.9	14.8	-0.85
Jason Hart	10	11	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.15	5	-17	22	12.5	14.6	-2.14	13.7	14.8	-1.06
Sasha Pavlovic	42	43	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	-0.21	6	-18	24	14.3	14.5	-0.16	15.8	13.8	2.03
Wayne Ellington	32	33	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.22	6	-18	24	14.5	14.4	0.07	15.1	14.5	0.59
Ryan Hollins	47	45	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	0.01	-3	-9	6	15.2	13.7	1.46	14.6	14.7	-0.12
Oleksiy Pecherov	32	33	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.01	-3	-9	6	13.4	14.9	-1.55	14.6	14.7	-0.09
Brian Cardinal	23	22	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.05	-6	-6	0	15.0	14.2	0.81	16.2	14.2	2.01
Ryan Gomes	60	61	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.08	-6	-6	0	14.2	14.8	-0.57	13.9	15.9	-1.99
Nathan Jawai	53	54	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.03	-9	-3	-6	14.5	14.3	0.18	15.0	14.2	0.77
Jonny Flynn	63	63	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	0.05	-16	4	-20	14.6	14.1	0.58	14.1	15.6	-1.48
Corey Brewer	67	65	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	0.08	-18	6	-24	14.4	14.5	-0.07	14.6	14.8	-0.24
Ramon Sessions	54	53	-0.60	0.10	-0.69	0.05	-22	10	-32	14.6	14.2	0.41	14.6	14.8	-0.22

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.5,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.33,0.3,0.2,0.21,0.23,0.18,0.22,0.21,0.22,0.2,0.16,0.15,0.06,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 97, DAL 82	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.53,0.52,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.4,0.44,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.36,0.3,0.26,0.23,0.22,0.15,0.19,0.18,0.23,0.14,0.09,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0	96.2%
NJN 87, MEM 76	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.46,0.42,0.27,0.25,0.18,0.22,0.28,0.27,0.24,0.19,0.18,0.19,0.11,0.11,0.05,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.7%
MIN 108, PHX 88	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.39,0.32,0.34,0.3,0.25,0.27,0.31,0.28,0.28,0.27,0.19,0.21,0.2,0.11,0.09,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.5%