NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	114		Excitement	12.0 [12]		MVP	Ersan Ilyasova (MIL): +29.3%
Sacramento Kings	108		Comeback	356.1 [3]		LVP	Spencer Hawes (SAC): -11.4%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ersan Ilyasova	0.29	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29	0.05	0.27	0.03	5	75%	0.36	2	-0.07	6	83%	0.01
John Salmons	0.10	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,0.09,0.03,0.1,0.19,0.19,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1	0.07	0.06	0.03	23	54%	0.14	1	-0.04	4	50%	-0.03
Brandon Jennings	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.17,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.22,0.22,0.16,0.08,0.19,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.07,0.02	0.09	-0.07	-0.01	28	58%	0.16	4	-0.13	4	75%	-0.00
Luc Mbah a Moute	-0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	4	50%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Delfino	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	7	59%	0.07	3	-0.07	3	100%	0.02
Andrew Bogut	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.21,-0.16,-0.16,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.1,-0.1,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.06	0.05	-0.00	20	46%	0.10	3	-0.11	6	17%	-0.07
Jerry Stackhouse	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.06	0.01	-0.02	6	17%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kurt Thomas	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Luke Ridnour	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	5	30%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Primoz Brezec	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carl Landry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.2,0.2,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.10	0.02	0.01	10	67%	0.10	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Jason Thompson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.04	-0.00	4	64%	0.09	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Beno Udrih	0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.12,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.01	-0.03	24	50%	0.22	2	-0.17	4	50%	0.03
Dominic McGuire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	1	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andres Nocioni	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,0.03	0.03	-0.08	0.07	-0.04	7	31%	0.06	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.05
Francisco Garcia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.02,0.02,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	11	42%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.03
Tyreke Evans	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.09	0.04	-0.03	8	58%	0.19	8	-0.21	10	70%	-0.01
Donte Greene	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	3	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Omri Casspi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ime Udoka	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.07	0.01	5	58%	-0.03	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Spencer Hawes	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.03	-0.09	-0.01	15	53%	0.02	4	-0.13	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1		OT2	Total
this game	25.1	2.4	34.3	14.8	29.0	2.5	35.5	2.4	12.9	0.8	14.2	173.9
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	2.0	39.8	2.0	39.8	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +55.4%

SAC -38.6%

MIL +5.3%

MIL +22.8%

MIL +5.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	SAC	NBA	MIL	SAC	NBA
this game	15.5	15.7	15.3	100.9	98.2	106.0
season	15.5	15.2		103.3	103.7
opponent	15.0	15.5		108.5	101.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
MIL	14.5	16.3	15.6	14.9	16.6	15.5
SAC	14.9	12.5	17.1	17.9	16.8	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brandon Jennings	88	85	0.71	-0.21	0.93	0.30	14	-8	22	14.6	18.8	-4.12	16.0	14.7	1.27
Andrew Bogut	85	82	0.61	-0.11	0.71	0.34	9	-3	12	15.4	15.9	-0.46	16.9	12.0	4.87
John Salmons	103	100	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.26	10	-4	14	15.3	18.5	-3.24	16.0	11.8	4.25
Carlos Delfino	94	90	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.44	2	4	-2	15.1	18.0	-2.95	15.4	16.8	-1.45
Ersan Ilyasova	67	65	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.20	6	0	6	16.4	14.3	2.03	15.3	16.2	-0.91
Luc Mbah a Moute	46	45	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.12	0	6	-6	14.3	16.4	-2.03	16.2	15.3	0.91
Primoz Brezec	18	19	0.06	0.44	-0.38	-0.06	4	2	2	14.5	15.7	-1.25	13.5	16.1	-2.58
Jerry Stackhouse	29	30	-0.05	0.55	-0.61	-0.05	0	6	-6	18.2	14.6	3.53	15.2	15.8	-0.68
Kurt Thomas	10	9	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.04	-5	11	-16	18.4	15.3	3.13	8.9	16.3	-7.38
Luke Ridnour	25	25	-0.26	0.76	-1.03	0.03	-10	16	-26	18.8	14.6	4.12	14.7	16.0	-1.27

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Thompson	43	42	0.49	-0.99	1.48	0.31	6	-12	18	14.5	16.4	-1.89	17.3	14.5	2.80
Omri Casspi	14	15	0.15	-0.65	0.80	-0.05	7	-13	20	11.4	16.3	-4.93	19.3	15.0	4.36
Dominic McGuire	2	3	0.13	-0.63	0.76	0.07	2	-8	10	3.5	15.9	-12.39	12.7	15.6	-2.96
Ime Udoka	52	52	0.11	-0.61	0.72	0.20	-3	-3	0	15.8	15.5	0.27	16.3	14.9	1.44
Tyreke Evans	75	72	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	0.32	-12	6	-18	16.6	13.7	2.90	15.0	16.6	-1.59
Spencer Hawes	65	67	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.08	-2	-4	2	17.7	12.8	4.88	14.7	16.7	-1.97
Andres Nocioni	23	24	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.10	-3	-3	0	13.3	16.3	-3.04	17.5	15.0	2.48
Donte Greene	42	41	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.33	-1	-5	4	14.8	16.2	-1.46	13.7	16.6	-2.89
Carl Landry	77	79	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.30	-6	0	-6	16.1	14.7	1.38	14.7	17.6	-2.92
Beno Udrih	86	90	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	-0.35	-6	0	-6	16.0	14.6	1.38	15.0	17.7	-2.64
Francisco Garcia	53	58	-0.66	0.16	-0.81	-0.66	0	-6	6	15.8	15.5	0.32	16.5	14.5	2.03

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.49,0.43,0.4,0.39,0.4,0.44,0.34,0.42,0.47,0.56,0.46,0.4,0.37,0.39,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.39,0.5,0.51,0.54,0.61,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.44,0.56,0.64,0.78,0.7,0.71,0.71,0.58,0.64,0.41,0.66,0.81,0.84,1,0.99,0.54,0.45,0.45,0.57,0.28,0.46,0.19,0.36,0.09,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 118, CLE 115	0.5,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.6,0.59,0.6,0.6,0.63,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.4,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.34,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.63,0.56,0.62,0.7,0.66,0.52,0.47,0.47,0.71,0.67,0.69,0.79,0.89,0.96,0.54,0.39,0.37,0.24,0.58,0.46,0.45,0.22,0.09,0.15,0	88.6%
CHI 94, GSW 106	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.46,0.47,0.38,0.31,0.31,0.38,0.42,0.46,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.58,0.66,0.54,0.48,0.45,0.44,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.41,0.49,0.52,0.6,0.66,0.74,0.79,0.75,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.73,0.76,0.84,0.86,0.99,1	87.3%
TOR 91, DET 96	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.46,0.44,0.43,0.39,0.37,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.34,0.33,0.35,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.37,0.39,0.36,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.57,0.55,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.62,0.68,0.7,0.57,0.66,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.47,0.46,0.62,0.71,0.96,0.98,1	87.1%