NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	91		Excitement	7.3 [352]		MVP	Jerry Stackhouse (DET): +26.9%
Detroit Pistons	96		Comeback	2.7 [554]		LVP	Alvin Williams (TOR): -25.3%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Childs	0.15	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.07	0.09	-0.00	16	69%	0.26	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Jerome Williams	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.00	0.03	-0.01	10	54%	0.06	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.01
Jermaine Jackson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hakeem Olajuwon	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.06,0.06,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	0.00	5	60%	0.06	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Davis	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01	0.03	-0.04	0.00	15	58%	0.08	1	-0.09	6	83%	0.01
Keon Clark	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	10	55%	0.01	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Morris Peterson	-0.09	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	9	45%	-0.02	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.02
Alvin Williams	-0.25	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.25	-0.12	-0.14	-0.01	15	25%	-0.25	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.08

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jerry Stackhouse	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.05,0.05,0.2,0.28,0.27,0.27	0.27	0.02	0.20	-0.05	22	55%	0.32	2	-0.05	12	92%	0.05
Jon Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.21,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13	0.13	0.07	0.04	-0.02	8	72%	0.22	1	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Damon Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.02	0.00	2	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zeljko Rebraca	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.08,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	-0.00	2	75%	0.08	1	-0.06	4	100%	0.03
Michael Curry	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	2	67%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Ben Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	7	44%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Chucky Atkins	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.02	-0.01	0.00	13	48%	-0.00	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Corliss Williamson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.06	-0.00	8	50%	-0.01	1	-0.07	4	50%	-0.02
Clifford Robinson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17	-0.17	-0.12	-0.06	-0.01	10	38%	-0.04	3	-0.14	6	83%	0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	480.5	2.8	29.0	20.8	29.2	2.7	32.1	597.0
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +21.3%

DET +38.1%

TOR -7.8%

DET +1.3%

TOR -3.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	DET	NBA	TOR	DET	NBA
this game	16.2	17.1	15.6	104.6	111.6	102.3
season	16.2	15.7		100.3	101.9
opponent	15.8	15.6		99.8	100.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	14.1	18.4	17.0	15.8	16.2
DET	15.9	18.6	16.5	17.6	17.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Hakeem Olajuwon	34	31	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.09	5	-10	15	16.9	15.8	1.14	19.2	15.9	3.30
Jermaine Jackson	1	0	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	0.00	-2	-3	1	0.0	16.4	-16.41	0.0	17.1	-17.08
Morris Peterson	53	52	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.11	-1	-4	3	15.8	16.9	-1.14	16.9	17.4	-0.50
Jerome Williams	51	50	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.17	-2	-3	1	17.1	14.9	2.17	17.6	16.3	1.29
Chris Childs	79	79	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.36	-3	-2	-1	15.8	20.5	-4.72	17.3	14.3	3.04
Antonio Davis	80	80	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.40	-4	-1	-3	15.8	21.3	-5.51	17.2	15.8	1.34
Keon Clark	60	61	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	-0.21	-11	6	-17	16.4	15.8	0.64	15.9	20.0	-4.11
Alvin Williams	77	77	-0.61	0.11	-0.73	-0.41	-7	2	-9	16.6	13.4	3.18	16.6	21.1	-4.50

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chucky Atkins	56	57	0.70	-0.20	0.90	0.38	11	-6	17	15.9	19.2	-3.25	15.6	17.4	-1.75
Jerry Stackhouse	71	71	0.69	-0.19	0.88	0.40	10	-5	15	16.3	20.6	-4.26	15.4	20.0	-4.63
Ben Wallace	78	78	0.63	-0.13	0.75	0.42	7	-2	9	16.7	20.7	-4.04	16.3	15.4	0.86
Jon Barry	41	41	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.31	2	3	-1	18.1	16.2	1.90	17.0	15.5	1.57
Clifford Robinson	58	60	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.32	-1	6	-7	17.2	16.9	0.33	16.4	15.8	0.59
Zeljko Rebraca	25	26	0.04	0.46	-0.41	-0.01	2	3	-1	18.0	16.7	1.24	16.4	16.1	0.24
Corliss Williamson	42	43	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.01	0	5	-5	17.8	16.4	1.42	16.9	15.6	1.32
Michael Curry	29	29	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	-0.03	0	5	-5	16.5	17.4	-0.90	15.4	16.6	-1.26
Damon Jones	30	30	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	-0.02	-6	11	-17	19.2	15.9	3.25	17.4	15.6	1.75

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.46,0.44,0.43,0.39,0.37,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.34,0.33,0.35,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.37,0.39,0.36,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.57,0.55,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.62,0.68,0.7,0.57,0.66,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.47,0.46,0.62,0.71,0.96,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 90, HOU 99	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.41,0.42,0.34,0.29,0.29,0.38,0.34,0.29,0.34,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.33,0.33,0.3,0.34,0.44,0.43,0.46,0.39,0.42,0.35,0.4,0.39,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.52,0.64,0.62,0.48,0.57,0.48,0.58,0.47,0.41,0.65,0.55,0.72,0.85,0.9,1	92.7%
DET 73, CLE 79	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.39,0.37,0.37,0.32,0.35,0.4,0.31,0.33,0.33,0.31,0.28,0.29,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.44,0.5,0.52,0.48,0.55,0.6,0.64,0.58,0.55,0.59,0.7,0.63,0.56,0.66,0.78,0.74,0.72,0.58,0.41,0.41,0.4,0.53,0.79,0.97,0.99,1	92.2%
MIN 98, LAL 106	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.59,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.3,0.35,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.4,0.39,0.52,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.47,0.51,0.37,0.39,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.66,0.74,0.7,0.53,0.47,0.59,0.4,0.46,0.53,0.72,0.96,1,1	92.0%