NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	91		Excitement	6.1 [565]		MVP	Dorell Wright (MIA): +32.6%
Miami Heat	88		Comeback	1.2 [372]		LVP	Carlos Arroyo (MIA): -13.8%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ryan Gomes	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.06	0.04	-0.00	8	81%	0.14	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ramon Sessions	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	3	67%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wayne Ellington	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04	0.03	0.04	0.03	7	75%	0.09	3	-0.05	2	100%	0.03
Kevin Love	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.00	0.01	10	63%	0.11	4	-0.09	7	86%	0.02
Damien Wilkins	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darko Milicic	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	3	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03
Jonny Flynn	-0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14,-0.15,-0.17,-0.04	-0.12	0.07	-0.01	17	42%	0.06	5	-0.10	4	75%	0.00
Corey Brewer	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	11	37%	-0.01	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Al Jefferson	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	12	42%	-0.00	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Hollins	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.03	-0.03	0.02	3	50%	-0.03	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dorell Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.24,0.22,0.22,0.23,0.23,0.21,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.33	0.33	0.27	0.10	0.04	11	108%	0.35	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Quentin Richardson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	5	38%	0.01	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Michael Beasley	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.01	-0.01	-0.06	0.05	0.00	18	35%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Joel Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	5	20%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	3	50%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jermaine O'Neal	0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,-0.05	-0.05	0.04	-0.07	0.02	13	64%	0.02	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	7	53%	-0.00	3	-0.05	3	67%	-0.01
Daequan Cook	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.11	-0.11	-0.06	-0.04	0.01	13	31%	-0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Arroyo	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.11	-0.03	-0.00	4	30%	-0.04	4	-0.10	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.6	2.5	28.4	15.8	23.0	1.8	38.2	134.2
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +30.7%

MIA -5.5%

MIN +41.1%

MIA -17.3%

MIN +1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	MIA	NBA	MIN	MIA	NBA
this game	15.6	15.6	15.3	98.9	94.6	106.0
season	14.7	16.2		100.1	104.4
opponent	15.4	14.8		102.8	109.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	14.8	15.3	13.4	19.1	15.6
MIA	14.5	16.7	15.9	15.1	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Love	59	58	0.73	-0.23	0.96	0.38	12	-9	21	15.6	15.5	0.03	16.0	14.8	1.19
Wayne Ellington	28	30	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.01	13	-10	23	14.6	16.0	-1.33	16.0	15.3	0.68
Darko Milicic	44	44	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.34	1	2	-1	17.5	13.7	3.80	15.5	15.6	-0.13
Ryan Gomes	67	68	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.32	-1	4	-5	15.1	16.8	-1.70	15.1	16.7	-1.57
Ramon Sessions	18	19	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.05	8	-5	13	13.7	16.0	-2.29	16.8	15.3	1.53
Jonny Flynn	74	73	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.42	-7	10	-17	16.0	13.7	2.29	15.5	16.0	-0.55
Damien Wilkins	33	33	0.16	0.34	-0.19	0.13	1	2	-1	16.5	15.1	1.39	16.5	15.0	1.47
Corey Brewer	64	64	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.35	-8	11	-19	16.0	14.6	1.33	15.1	16.6	-1.43
Al Jefferson	52	53	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.10	-3	6	-9	14.4	17.1	-2.72	15.6	15.5	0.03
Ryan Hollins	21	23	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	-0.03	-1	4	-5	14.4	15.9	-1.53	14.4	15.9	-1.51

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Beasley	66	66	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.39	12	-15	27	14.9	17.2	-2.33	15.7	15.2	0.57
Carlos Arroyo	49	48	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	0.01	-4	1	-5	14.7	16.5	-1.77	14.2	17.1	-2.88
Daequan Cook	58	56	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.09	-3	0	-3	14.5	17.3	-2.80	14.6	17.1	-2.45
Joel Anthony	14	14	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	0.01	-8	5	-13	14.8	15.7	-0.92	15.1	15.7	-0.58
Quentin Richardson	53	54	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.23	0	-3	3	14.5	17.0	-2.51	15.3	15.9	-0.56
Dorell Wright	54	53	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.43	6	-9	15	16.1	14.8	1.25	16.9	13.8	3.07
Jermaine O'Neal	79	78	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.42	5	-8	13	15.7	14.8	0.92	15.7	15.1	0.58
James Jones	21	21	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.08	-9	6	-15	19.9	14.3	5.54	15.4	15.6	-0.18
Mario Chalmers	44	44	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.43	1	-4	5	16.5	14.7	1.77	17.1	14.2	2.88
Udonis Haslem	28	26	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	0.03	-17	14	-31	16.6	15.1	1.54	15.2	15.7	-0.57

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.4,0.4,0.39,0.33,0.3,0.32,0.36,0.32,0.26,0.18,0.21,0.27,0.24,0.28,0.27,0.31,0.28,0.33,0.36,0.42,0.42,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.39,0.45,0.32,0.31,0.37,0.37,0.22,0.13,0.08,0.04,0.2,0.08,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.17,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 97, CHA 81	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.37,0.3,0.3,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.28,0.28,0.39,0.31,0.22,0.25,0.27,0.42,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.36,0.42,0.42,0.38,0.31,0.27,0.2,0.21,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.15,0.06,0.05,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	93.6%
SAS 102, SAC 94	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.48,0.49,0.44,0.4,0.39,0.37,0.31,0.28,0.24,0.24,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.25,0.27,0.31,0.32,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.41,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.36,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.44,0.37,0.37,0.25,0.19,0.16,0.18,0.09,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0	93.5%
CHA 102, TOR 89	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.35,0.37,0.34,0.38,0.32,0.28,0.24,0.23,0.27,0.29,0.32,0.34,0.41,0.31,0.46,0.42,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.45,0.3,0.36,0.32,0.35,0.31,0.37,0.37,0.21,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0	93.5%