NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	109		Excitement	7.5 [292]		MVP	John Salmons (CHI): +13.0%
Indiana Pacers	101		Comeback	5.9 [148]		LVP	Roy Hibbert (IND): -21.2%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
John Salmons	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.04,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.09	0.04	0.00	10	70%	0.21	2	-0.09	10	70%	-0.03
Tyrus Thomas	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.06	0.06	-0.00	5	82%	0.15	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	0.11	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.09	0.02	-0.00	13	61%	0.11	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Derrick Rose	0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06	-0.03	0.06	-0.03	18	54%	0.22	5	-0.16	3	100%	0.02
Luol Deng	-0.00	0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0	0.04	-0.01	0.02	18	53%	0.04	2	-0.04	7	71%	-0.00
Brad Miller	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,0,0,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.02	-0.00	10	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	6	33%	-0.09
Taj Gibson	-0.04	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.01	0.01	2	67%	0.03	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.00
Devin Brown	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Richard	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.03	0.00	3	12%	-0.06	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Troy Murphy	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.08	-0.01	0.01	12	64%	0.11	1	-0.05	4	75%	-0.00
Dahntay Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.05	0.00	6	64%	0.13	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Solomon Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	3	75%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
T.J. Ford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.11,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.02	-0.00	6	75%	0.12	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Luther Head	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Rush	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	10	35%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Danny Granger	0,0,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07	-0.07	0.02	-0.06	0.03	23	51%	-0.02	2	-0.05	7	86%	-0.03
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.10	-0.00	-0.00	7	14%	-0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Earl Watson	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.11,-0.19,-0.2	-0.20	-0.05	-0.14	0.01	11	58%	0.06	5	-0.26	2	50%	-0.01
Roy Hibbert	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.14,-0.14,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.21	-0.10	-0.12	-0.01	13	32%	-0.12	2	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.3	2.6	30.0	15.6	23.2	1.8	34.2	133.7
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +33.2%

CHI +12.3%

IND -5.1%

CHI +13.3%

IND -3.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	IND	NBA	CHI	IND	NBA
this game	13.4	14.2	15.3	104.8	97.1	106.0
season	14.7	14.2		101.9	102.2
opponent	15.1	15.7		105.3	103.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	13.6	13.1	13.3	13.7	13.4
IND	12.1	16.4	15.5	13.4	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
John Salmons	69	68	0.65	-0.15	0.81	0.36	10	-2	12	14.0	12.4	1.53	13.9	14.8	-0.89
Luol Deng	86	85	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.25	9	-1	10	13.3	14.0	-0.67	14.1	15.1	-0.98
Tyrus Thomas	62	61	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.24	9	-1	10	13.7	13.0	0.74	13.8	14.9	-1.04
Taj Gibson	42	43	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.14	10	-2	12	12.6	14.0	-1.42	15.6	13.3	2.31
Derrick Rose	82	83	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.25	6	2	4	13.6	12.8	0.79	14.5	13.2	1.33
Chris Richard	26	26	0.04	0.46	-0.42	-0.05	3	5	-2	14.6	13.1	1.51	12.9	14.7	-1.77
Devin Brown	16	17	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.01	0	8	-8	13.4	13.4	-0.01	14.3	14.2	0.05
Kirk Hinrich	83	82	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.07	-3	11	-14	12.8	16.0	-3.20	14.1	14.7	-0.55
Brad Miller	54	55	-0.05	0.55	-0.61	0.06	-4	12	-16	13.5	13.4	0.08	14.7	13.7	0.97

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
T.J. Ford	28	27	0.08	-0.58	0.66	0.11	-1	-7	6	15.5	13.8	1.66	15.3	12.8	2.55
Mike Dunleavy	33	36	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	0.02	-3	-5	2	13.1	14.8	-1.65	13.6	13.4	0.17
Luther Head	13	15	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	0.03	-4	-4	0	13.9	14.3	-0.37	13.5	13.4	0.11
Solomon Jones	18	19	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.06	-5	-3	-2	14.8	14.1	0.64	12.8	13.6	-0.73
Troy Murphy	80	78	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.11	-5	-3	-2	13.8	15.7	-1.95	12.6	15.9	-3.31
Roy Hibbert	62	60	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.24	-1	-7	6	14.8	13.4	1.42	14.2	12.4	1.79
Dahntay Jones	38	39	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.25	-1	-7	6	14.1	14.3	-0.23	14.5	12.8	1.75
Brandon Rush	86	85	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.35	-3	-5	2	14.2	14.3	-0.03	13.6	12.9	0.61
Danny Granger	86	84	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.23	-10	2	-12	14.7	12.1	2.59	13.1	14.8	-1.68
Earl Watson	76	77	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.37	-7	-1	-6	13.8	15.5	-1.66	12.8	15.3	-2.55

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.57,0.61,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.54,0.48,0.44,0.45,0.42,0.47,0.51,0.44,0.47,0.48,0.58,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.62,0.55,0.64,0.7,0.79,0.77,0.83,0.72,0.63,0.67,0.72,0.7,0.7,0.75,0.8,0.74,0.59,0.34,0.27,0.19,0.36,0.17,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 95, CHA 90	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.48,0.44,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.41,0.36,0.44,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.63,0.69,0.73,0.67,0.74,0.71,0.65,0.66,0.63,0.6,0.66,0.74,0.79,0.67,0.73,0.47,0.4,0.33,0.32,0.21,0.09,0.15,0	92.3%
MIL 110, TOR 107	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.59,0.58,0.57,0.57,0.59,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.51,0.58,0.53,0.59,0.64,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.63,0.7,0.73,0.73,0.74,0.75,0.69,0.69,0.68,0.72,0.78,0.78,0.82,0.76,0.63,0.47,0.25,0.22,0.1,0.15,0.22,0.16,0	92.1%
BOS 90, NYK 81	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.61,0.65,0.61,0.6,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.4,0.42,0.36,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.49,0.44,0.51,0.54,0.44,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.55,0.6,0.72,0.67,0.64,0.74,0.71,0.66,0.63,0.63,0.68,0.81,0.81,0.78,0.81,0.77,0.53,0.53,0.34,0.38,0.22,0.15,0.02,0	92.0%