NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	110		Excitement	7.8 [305]		MVP	Donyell Marshall (TOR): +18.5%
Toronto Raptors	107		Comeback	5.7 [127]		LVP	Desmond Mason (MIL): -14.2%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike James	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.08	0.10	0.00	10	70%	0.20	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Toni Kukoc	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.12,0.12	0.03	0.09	-0.01	7	62%	0.15	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.03
Joe Smith	0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07	0.00	0.07	-0.00	6	61%	0.12	1	-0.04	6	83%	0.04
Michael Redd	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,-0.05,0.03	0.01	0.04	0.02	20	60%	0.21	4	-0.18	8	75%	0.01
Mo Williams	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.00	7	57%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dan Gadzuric	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	6	59%	0.01	1	-0.03	5	80%	-0.00
Zaza Pachulia	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	2	67%	0.02	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Keith Van Horn	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	8	37%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Desmond Mason	-0.14	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.06	-0.06	0.02	15	53%	-0.02	4	-0.13	4	50%	-0.03

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Donyell Marshall	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.19	0.19	0.05	0.13	-0.00	9	60%	0.19	0	0.00	2	100%	0.04
Matt Bonner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	11	58%	0.05	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Morris Peterson	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.06	-0.03	0.01	11	64%	0.06	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Loren Woods	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.02	0.00	5	42%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Rafael Araujo	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	3	100%	0.06	3	-0.08	1	100%	0.01
Milt Palacio	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rafer Alston	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.05	-0.01	15	47%	-0.03	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Jalen Rose	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.06,-0.04,-0.13	-0.13	0.05	-0.15	0.02	21	57%	-0.06	2	-0.07	4	75%	0.01
Chris Bosh	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.10	-0.04	0.01	12	39%	-0.12	1	-0.02	7	29%	-0.09

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.1	2.4	24.1	15.8	26.2	2.5	36.8	130.9
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +42.1%

MIL +10.5%

MIL +18.7%

TOR -23.3%

MIL +2.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	TOR	NBA	MIL	TOR	NBA
this game	15.6	14.8	15.5	114.6	113.8	104.0
season	16.0	15.1		104.4	104.8
opponent	15.4	15.0		106.8	107.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	16.3	13.8	14.7	17.9	15.6
TOR	13.6	14.4	14.1	17.2	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Toni Kukoc	51	51	0.69	-0.19	0.89	0.49	7	-4	11	15.4	15.8	-0.42	15.8	13.5	2.38
Zaza Pachulia	32	32	0.65	-0.15	0.81	0.27	13	-10	23	15.5	15.6	-0.13	16.4	13.9	2.55
Desmond Mason	76	75	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.38	8	-5	13	16.0	13.8	2.15	14.8	14.7	0.02
Joe Smith	65	64	0.61	-0.11	0.71	0.52	3	0	3	16.4	13.7	2.67	14.1	16.2	-2.07
Mike James	54	52	0.58	-0.08	0.67	0.44	5	-2	7	15.2	16.0	-0.75	15.5	13.8	1.67
Keith Van Horn	30	30	0.03	0.47	-0.44	-0.06	3	0	3	13.6	16.4	-2.84	16.2	14.1	2.07
Mo Williams	42	42	-0.08	0.58	-0.67	-0.02	-2	5	-7	16.0	15.2	0.75	13.8	15.5	-1.67
Michael Redd	72	69	-0.23	0.73	-0.95	0.15	-13	16	-29	15.8	14.8	0.96	14.0	16.8	-2.84
Dan Gadzuric	58	55	-0.37	0.87	-1.23	-0.10	-9	12	-21	14.9	16.5	-1.57	13.7	16.2	-2.52

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rafael Araujo	36	39	0.19	-0.69	0.87	0.04	5	-8	13	12.7	16.1	-3.39	15.4	15.7	-0.28
Milt Palacio	36	36	0.06	-0.56	0.63	0.04	1	-4	5	15.4	14.3	1.12	14.2	16.3	-2.13
Loren Woods	16	15	0.05	-0.55	0.60	0.05	0	-3	3	16.1	14.5	1.65	15.9	15.5	0.37
Donyell Marshall	46	46	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.29	3	-6	9	15.9	13.7	2.18	15.5	15.6	-0.06
Matt Bonner	50	50	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.29	-4	1	-5	15.5	13.9	1.55	15.0	16.1	-1.07
Rafer Alston	83	85	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.45	-1	-2	1	14.7	15.1	-0.38	15.8	13.5	2.37
Chris Bosh	71	73	-0.54	0.04	-0.59	-0.43	-4	1	-5	14.5	15.7	-1.19	15.8	14.7	1.13
Morris Peterson	63	64	-0.55	0.05	-0.59	-0.31	-8	5	-13	14.5	15.2	-0.65	15.7	15.2	0.59
Jalen Rose	69	72	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.42	-7	4	-11	14.4	15.6	-1.15	15.8	14.7	1.18

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.59,0.58,0.57,0.57,0.59,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.51,0.58,0.53,0.59,0.64,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.63,0.7,0.73,0.73,0.74,0.75,0.69,0.69,0.68,0.72,0.78,0.78,0.82,0.76,0.63,0.47,0.25,0.22,0.1,0.15,0.22,0.16,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 91, CHA 82	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.52,0.51,0.59,0.57,0.53,0.5,0.53,0.53,0.5,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.63,0.56,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.59,0.72,0.78,0.76,0.76,0.74,0.83,0.82,0.85,0.78,0.87,0.78,0.81,0.79,0.72,0.68,0.64,0.34,0.22,0.11,0.01,0.03,0,0	92.6%
PHX 115, TOR 103	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.62,0.59,0.58,0.62,0.61,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.58,0.57,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.57,0.56,0.51,0.61,0.64,0.59,0.54,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.67,0.64,0.58,0.65,0.72,0.7,0.71,0.69,0.62,0.82,0.75,0.62,0.63,0.53,0.41,0.27,0.19,0.04,0.01,0,0	92.1%
CHI 109, IND 101	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.57,0.61,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.54,0.48,0.44,0.45,0.42,0.47,0.51,0.44,0.47,0.48,0.58,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.62,0.55,0.64,0.7,0.79,0.77,0.83,0.72,0.63,0.67,0.72,0.7,0.7,0.75,0.8,0.74,0.59,0.34,0.27,0.19,0.36,0.17,0.02,0	92.1%