NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	98		Excitement	8.9 [131]		MVP	Joakim Noah (CHI): +14.8%
San Antonio Spurs	93		Comeback	2.4 [135]		LVP	DeJuan Blair (SAS): -19.0%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Joakim Noah	0.15	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.15	0.02	0.14	0.02	5	73%	0.23	3	-0.08	5	60%	-0.08
Brad Miller	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.06	0.08	0.00	7	62%	0.14	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Derrick Rose	0.13	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.21,0.11,0.13	0.12	0.03	0.02	23	59%	0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luol Deng	0.10	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0,0.1,0.1,0.1	-0.06	0.11	-0.06	9	50%	0.15	4	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
John Salmons	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.05	-0.03	0.00	6	71%	0.06	1	-0.05	2	50%	-0.02
Taj Gibson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.02	0.00	8	50%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
James Johnson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	1	100%	0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Tyrus Thomas	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.02	-0.11	0.01	15	58%	0.07	5	-0.20	1	100%	0.01

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.09	0.07	0.01	14	62%	0.17	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.03
George Hill	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.06	0.07	-0.01	9	60%	0.13	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.03,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.08,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.02	-0.01	13	54%	0.10	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Roger Mason Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.03	-0.01	8	50%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.07,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04	-0.04	-0.08	0.02	-0.02	14	41%	0.07	3	-0.11	6	83%	0.08
Richard Jefferson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.11	-0.03	-0.01	8	11%	-0.13	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.04
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.01	-0.16	-0.01	14	47%	-0.12	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.00
DeJuan Blair	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.12	-0.06	0.00	13	29%	-0.15	2	-0.04	2	0%	-0.06

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	1.6	28.4	15.6	26.1	1.7	37.1	135.7
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +82.9%

SAS -10.1%

SAS -6.8%

SAS -16.4%

CHI +0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	SAS	NBA	CHI	SAS	NBA
this game	14.9	16.2	15.3	105.4	101.1	106.0
season	14.7	15.9		101.9	108.2
opponent	15.1	15.7		103.4	103.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	14.9	13.5	15.5	15.8	14.9
SAS	17.9	16.5	14.5	16.2	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kirk Hinrich	75	73	0.66	-0.16	0.81	0.51	5	0	5	15.4	12.8	2.64	15.8	17.8	-2.02
John Salmons	65	62	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.27	9	-4	13	14.7	15.3	-0.60	16.6	15.4	1.20
Derrick Rose	67	68	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.35	6	-1	7	14.8	15.2	-0.40	16.1	16.7	-0.63
Luol Deng	67	67	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.32	3	2	1	14.7	15.5	-0.83	16.0	16.9	-0.93
Joakim Noah	47	48	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.45	-2	7	-9	15.0	14.8	0.15	15.0	17.5	-2.50
Brad Miller	40	37	0.15	0.35	-0.20	-0.08	8	-3	11	15.6	14.3	1.31	18.1	15.0	3.17
Taj Gibson	50	53	0.04	0.46	-0.41	0.16	-4	9	-13	15.6	14.0	1.59	15.6	17.1	-1.41
Tyrus Thomas	42	40	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	-0.10	3	2	1	14.1	15.5	-1.43	16.9	15.7	1.12
James Johnson	12	12	-0.18	0.68	-0.87	-0.10	-3	8	-11	11.5	15.4	-3.91	18.6	15.9	2.70

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Antonio McDyess	47	49	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.07	2	-7	9	16.4	16.1	0.25	15.5	14.3	1.20
Tony Parker	72	73	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.31	4	-9	13	15.6	18.4	-2.82	15.2	13.7	1.53
Roger Mason Jr.	49	51	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.35	5	-10	15	15.1	17.5	-2.39	15.3	14.4	0.87
Tim Duncan	66	66	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.31	3	-8	11	15.4	18.4	-2.99	15.3	14.0	1.27
Richard Jefferson	49	49	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	0.06	-14	9	-23	17.3	15.0	2.37	14.4	15.4	-1.00
DeJuan Blair	60	59	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.08	-12	7	-19	17.4	14.1	3.34	14.2	16.1	-1.91
Manu Ginobili	56	57	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.29	-7	2	-9	16.5	15.8	0.67	14.3	15.8	-1.52
George Hill	61	61	-0.60	0.10	-0.71	-0.43	-6	1	-7	16.4	15.9	0.51	14.9	14.8	0.09

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.62,0.67,0.67,0.66,0.61,0.65,0.63,0.58,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.49,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.39,0.41,0.39,0.28,0.28,0.4,0.49,0.42,0.46,0.55,0.42,0.33,0.38,0.48,0.38,0.3,0.3,0.44,0.54,0.57,0.62,0.57,0.42,0.21,0.29,0.33,0.55,0.45,0.43,0.42,0
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 93, NJN 91	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.55,0.58,0.63,0.64,0.62,0.57,0.53,0.63,0.55,0.53,0.5,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.37,0.37,0.25,0.34,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.39,0.33,0.27,0.26,0.41,0.45,0.34,0.4,0.48,0.58,0.66,0.71,0.62,0.53,0.26,0.19,0.17,0.38,0.28,0.18,0.05,0	90.0%
NOH 100, CLE 99	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.53,0.49,0.48,0.39,0.31,0.33,0.39,0.33,0.32,0.34,0.39,0.39,0.33,0.29,0.29,0.28,0.34,0.33,0.48,0.42,0.48,0.57,0.52,0.47,0.41,0.54,0.39,0.45,0.45,0.23,0.26,0	89.7%
TOR 98, CHI 96	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.5,0.61,0.63,0.69,0.67,0.68,0.67,0.65,0.62,0.63,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.63,0.58,0.54,0.46,0.46,0.54,0.46,0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.39,0.48,0.42,0.61,0.48,0.37,0.37,0.41,0.42,0.43,0.49,0.48,0.32,0.21,0.24,0.33,0.53,0.46,0.45,0.16,0	89.7%