NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Hornets	110		Excitement	10.2 [49]		MVP	Chris Paul (NOH): +42.6%
Denver Nuggets	116		Comeback	2.7 [815]		LVP	Carmelo Anthony (DEN): -31.3%

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Paul	0.43	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.18,0.13,0.06,-0.02,-0.02,0.34,0.28,0.28,0.32,0.43,0.43	0.10	0.32	-0.01	18	63%	0.51	3	-0.09	5	100%	0.05
Darius Songaila	0.06	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.10	0.01	0.04	13	67%	0.09	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.04
Darren Collison	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.02	-0.00	4	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Thornton	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.01	0.00	12	48%	0.02	0	0.00	3	100%	0.05
Sean Marks	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	0	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Devin Brown	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	8	35%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
James Posey	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	-0.00	7	50%	0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Julian Wright	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Emeka Okafor	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.05	-0.09	0.00	13	53%	-0.04	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Peja Stojakovic	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0,-0.04,-0.05	-0.00	-0.05	-0.00	15	53%	0.04	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.14,0.01,0.41,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.35	0.35	0.05	0.31	0.01	14	61%	0.51	2	-0.16	5	100%	0.04
Arron Afflalo	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.18,0.32,0.32	0.32	0.14	0.17	-0.01	12	79%	0.36	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kenyon Martin	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.04	0.06	0.00	16	59%	0.19	2	-0.08	2	0%	-0.04
Nene	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.05	0.03	3	71%	0.09	2	-0.05	8	75%	0.03
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.03	0.00	5	50%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03
J.R. Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.1,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	5	30%	0.01	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Ty Lawson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	7	40%	-0.02	1	-0.03	6	67%	0.00
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.08,-0.06,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.36,-0.36,-0.41,-0.33,-0.31,-0.31	-0.31	-0.10	-0.21	0.00	28	43%	-0.09	4	-0.22	13	85%	0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	22.5	2.5	31.6	16.4	26.3	2.7	34.5	2.5	15.2	154.1
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	2.0	39.8	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +58.2%

NOH -11.6%

DEN +43.0%

NOH -42.5%

DEN +2.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOH	DEN	NBA	NOH	DEN	NBA
this game	16.1	15.4	15.3	110.0	113.7	106.0
season	15.5	14.4		106.0	110.3
opponent	15.5	15.2		106.4	108.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
NOH	16.9	15.0	15.3	17.9	15.0	16.1
DEN	12.6	17.1	17.5	15.7	13.6	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Sean Marks	12	12	0.18	-0.68	0.86	-0.03	7	-13	20	12.9	16.5	-3.63	15.1	15.4	-0.34
James Posey	48	48	0.17	-0.67	0.85	-0.00	6	-12	18	16.2	16.0	0.19	15.2	15.5	-0.33
Marcus Thornton	41	42	0.08	-0.58	0.67	-0.06	5	-11	16	16.6	15.8	0.81	16.1	14.9	1.25
Julian Wright	21	23	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.12	5	-11	16	13.6	16.8	-3.21	15.0	15.5	-0.49
Darren Collison	18	18	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.06	1	-7	8	12.8	16.8	-4.00	15.4	15.4	0.08
Darius Songaila	74	75	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.24	-4	-2	-2	16.5	15.0	1.55	15.5	15.0	0.52
Chris Paul	83	84	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.28	-6	0	-6	16.6	13.5	3.11	15.4	15.4	-0.08
Emeka Okafor	79	80	-0.58	0.08	-0.65	-0.31	-9	3	-12	16.9	13.0	3.88	16.0	13.0	3.10
Devin Brown	59	60	-0.58	0.08	-0.67	-0.26	-11	5	-16	15.8	16.6	-0.81	14.9	16.1	-1.25
Peja Stojakovic	65	68	-0.96	0.46	-1.41	-0.25	-24	18	-42	16.2	15.9	0.35	14.7	16.6	-1.90

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Arron Afflalo	68	66	0.72	-0.22	0.93	0.25	16	-10	26	14.8	16.6	-1.81	16.8	14.8	1.99
Chauncey Billups	80	78	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.25	10	-4	14	15.6	14.7	0.84	16.6	14.4	2.18
Kenyon Martin	91	88	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.36	6	0	6	15.5	14.3	1.24	16.3	14.9	1.36
Carmelo Anthony	89	89	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.30	3	3	0	15.8	12.8	2.99	16.3	14.8	1.45
Chris Andersen	47	46	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.16	4	2	2	15.0	15.7	-0.63	15.0	17.1	-2.06
Nene	66	66	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.13	2	4	-2	15.4	15.3	0.16	16.7	15.0	1.64
Ty Lawson	43	42	0.01	0.49	-0.47	0.04	-1	7	-8	15.7	15.1	0.59	15.1	16.9	-1.79
J.R. Smith	26	25	-0.15	0.65	-0.81	0.14	-10	16	-26	14.5	15.7	-1.13	14.0	16.8	-2.81

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.47,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.48,0.38,0.42,0.38,0.31,0.37,0.32,0.41,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.46,0.5,0.43,0.37,0.36,0.33,0.3,0.38,0.48,0.47,0.63,0.63,0.6,0.54,0.62,0.82,0.87,0.68,0.74,0.71,0.46,0.55,0.37,0.76,0.73,0.54,0.61,0.72,0.91,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 91, CHI 96	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.5,0.53,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.46,0.42,0.41,0.46,0.34,0.39,0.39,0.3,0.32,0.28,0.3,0.39,0.33,0.35,0.52,0.59,0.73,0.77,0.68,0.46,0.43,0.52,0.62,0.56,0.53,0.54,0.46,0.55,0.55,0.78,0.58,0.54,0.55,0.72,0.85,0.95,1	89.6%
POR 92, CLE 97	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.55,0.53,0.47,0.43,0.4,0.32,0.35,0.32,0.3,0.33,0.42,0.4,0.46,0.44,0.39,0.36,0.44,0.39,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.39,0.39,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.63,0.63,0.68,0.81,0.7,0.75,0.76,0.81,0.87,0.84,0.54,0.61,0.71,0.67,0.82,0.54,0.69,0.85,0.91,0.95,1	89.2%
POR 107, DEN 114	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.5,0.53,0.56,0.57,0.61,0.55,0.49,0.4,0.36,0.3,0.28,0.28,0.36,0.38,0.37,0.32,0.39,0.44,0.41,0.36,0.44,0.49,0.4,0.34,0.25,0.39,0.45,0.58,0.45,0.45,0.56,0.44,0.52,0.46,0.52,0.57,0.76,0.73,0.79,0.71,0.54,0.68,0.71,0.92,0.92,0.54,0.53,0.61,0.83,0.98,1	89.1%