NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	92		Excitement	8.1 [218]		MVP	Brandon Roy (POR): +38.5%
Cleveland Cavaliers	97		Comeback	2.6 [858]		LVP	Travis Outlaw (POR): -16.2%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brandon Roy	0.38	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.18,0.18,0.1,0.1,0.19,0.51,0.43,0.43,0.39,0.39,0.38	0.06	0.30	-0.02	16	56%	0.55	2	-0.17	11	100%	0.25
Joel Przybilla	0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12	0.06	0.06	-0.00	4	81%	0.16	2	-0.04	8	62%	-0.02
Channing Frye	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04	0.01	0.01	-0.02	15	47%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sergio Rodriguez	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.02	-0.01	2	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Oden	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	4	44%	0.01	0	0.00	8	62%	-0.04
Jerryd Bayless	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rudy Fernandez	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.01	-0.00	6	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Blake	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	0.04	-0.06	0.04	10	60%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Travis Outlaw	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.11,0.16,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.16	-0.06	-0.13	-0.02	18	45%	0.07	3	-0.23	2	100%	0.01

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.17,0.15,0.21,0.21,0.2,0.29,0.31	0.31	0.03	0.28	-0.00	22	47%	0.31	0	0.00	11	55%	-0.07
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.21,0.28,0.28,0.26,0.26	0.26	0.12	0.15	0.01	13	66%	0.26	0	0.00	6	83%	0.00
Joe Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.12	0.03	0.00	5	100%	0.14	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Daniel Gibson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.05	0.04	-0.01	6	67%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darnell Jackson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Delonte West	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.06	0.03	-0.01	14	30%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Anderson Varejao	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.03	-0.01	8	44%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Sasha Pavlovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.01	-0.00	3	12%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Mo Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	-0.03	-0.04	15	37%	-0.02	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	26.7	2.7	30.2	19.7	29.6	3.0	40.0	2.5	3434.1	3588.4
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	2.0	41.4	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CLE +37.5%

POR -41.8%

POR -2.0%

CLE +49.1%

CLE +7.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	CLE	NBA	POR	CLE	NBA
this game	16.7	18.8	15.5	103.4	107.8	106.4
season	16.7	16.9		111.0	110.6
opponent	15.2	16.0		101.0	105.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
POR	17.7	16.0	16.8	16.7	15.8	16.7
CLE	18.3	18.2	19.2	21.2	15.8	18.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Greg Oden	19	21	0.04	-0.54	0.59	-0.10	5	-10	15	17.2	16.5	0.67	19.1	18.7	0.40
Jerryd Bayless	7	8	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	-0.00	-1	-4	3	21.9	16.2	5.61	18.7	18.8	-0.09
Sergio Rodriguez	8	8	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.05	0	-5	5	13.6	17.0	-3.36	21.1	18.6	2.52
Channing Frye	58	57	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	0.14	-11	6	-17	17.0	16.1	0.85	18.6	19.3	-0.74
Rudy Fernandez	61	63	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.35	-1	-4	3	16.5	17.2	-0.72	18.9	18.8	0.08
Brandon Roy	79	80	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.42	1	-6	7	16.4	18.7	-2.27	18.7	20.2	-1.54
Steve Blake	74	74	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.30	-4	-1	-3	16.5	17.5	-0.94	18.6	19.9	-1.34
Travis Outlaw	79	80	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.35	-4	-1	-3	16.7	16.8	-0.13	19.1	16.6	2.51
Joel Przybilla	60	59	-0.63	0.13	-0.75	-0.33	-10	5	-15	16.8	16.4	0.40	18.8	18.9	-0.06

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Sasha Pavlovic	38	39	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.33	10	-5	15	20.4	17.7	2.66	17.2	16.3	0.97
Mo Williams	73	70	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.21	8	-3	11	19.2	17.2	2.04	17.2	14.8	2.34
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	49	49	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.19	7	-2	9	18.3	19.5	-1.16	17.1	16.1	0.97
LeBron James	80	79	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.42	-1	6	-7	18.7	20.2	-1.54	16.4	18.7	-2.27
Delonte West	72	71	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.32	1	4	-3	18.0	22.3	-4.31	16.0	19.2	-3.18
Daniel Gibson	43	41	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.14	2	3	-1	18.9	18.8	0.05	16.4	16.9	-0.50
Darnell Jackson	10	10	0.11	0.39	-0.28	-0.06	6	-1	7	20.2	18.7	1.54	18.7	16.4	2.27
Joe Smith	30	32	0.05	0.45	-0.39	0.08	-1	6	-7	20.5	18.0	2.45	17.1	16.4	0.69
Anderson Varejao	55	54	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.13	-7	12	-19	17.9	20.2	-2.28	16.0	17.7	-1.65

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.55,0.53,0.47,0.43,0.4,0.32,0.35,0.32,0.3,0.33,0.42,0.4,0.46,0.44,0.39,0.36,0.44,0.39,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.39,0.39,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.63,0.63,0.68,0.81,0.7,0.75,0.76,0.81,0.87,0.84,0.54,0.61,0.71,0.67,0.82,0.54,0.69,0.85,0.91,0.95,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 103, IND 109	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.34,0.37,0.3,0.34,0.32,0.26,0.28,0.3,0.34,0.38,0.4,0.46,0.46,0.41,0.46,0.48,0.44,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.45,0.36,0.52,0.45,0.59,0.69,0.67,0.75,0.81,0.84,0.85,0.8,0.73,0.69,0.65,0.71,0.86,0.79,0.94,0.73,0.46,0.62,0.71,0.95,0.96,1	90.1%
MIA 90, MEM 99	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.47,0.5,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.39,0.34,0.36,0.41,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.48,0.43,0.42,0.45,0.52,0.42,0.38,0.48,0.52,0.59,0.72,0.78,0.81,0.67,0.62,0.73,0.89,0.88,0.78,0.75,0.63,0.43,0.41,0.54,0.75,0.78,0.83,0.99,1	89.7%
SAC 103, CHA 106	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.5,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.47,0.37,0.39,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.42,0.54,0.46,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.49,0.5,0.45,0.46,0.58,0.56,0.71,0.62,0.62,0.59,0.69,0.56,0.64,0.74,0.7,0.67,0.67,0.73,0.59,0.59,0.61,0.61,0.63,0.43,0.85,0.54,0.61,0.85,0.98,1,1	89.6%