NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	91		Excitement	10.1 [54]		MVP	Joakim Noah (CHI): +15.0%
Chicago Bulls	96		Comeback	3.1 [560]		LVP	Derrick Rose (CHI): -51.3%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
CJ Watson	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06	0.05	0.01	0.00	6	64%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.03
Stephen Curry	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	9	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Randolph	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	6	43%	-0.05	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.05
Vladimir Radmanovic	-0.11	0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.17,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	13	35%	-0.04	1	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Morrow	-0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11	-0.05	-0.07	-0.01	15	40%	-0.06	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Mikki Moore	-0.13	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.01	-0.11	0.02	3	100%	0.06	4	-0.20	2	100%	0.01
Corey Maggette	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.08,-0.04,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.16,-0.14,-0.14	-0.07	-0.08	-0.01	19	37%	-0.12	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Monta Ellis	-0.22	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,-0.02,0.11,-0.17,-0.12,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.22	-0.04	-0.18	0.00	26	47%	-0.12	3	-0.10	6	83%	0.01

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Joakim Noah	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.27,0.27,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.10	0.05	-0.00	14	64%	0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luol Deng	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.13	0.13	0.02	0.09	-0.02	20	49%	0.16	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.05
James Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Taj Gibson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	7	56%	0.09	3	-0.15	2	50%	-0.01
Brad Miller	0,0,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.04	0.02	11	50%	-0.04	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.06,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.11	-0.06	-0.01	12	33%	-0.02	3	-0.14	0	0%	0.00
John Salmons	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.33,-0.33,-0.33,-0.33	-0.33	-0.13	-0.20	-0.00	16	32%	-0.19	3	-0.14	2	100%	0.01
Derrick Rose	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.15,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.2,-0.25,-0.56,-0.56,-0.56,-0.5,-0.5,-0.51	-0.51	-0.16	-0.36	-0.00	22	33%	-0.24	3	-0.27	2	50%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	23.7	2.5	29.2	15.7	22.2	2.6	33.0	1.6	12.2	142.9
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	2.0	39.8	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +15.4%

CHI +7.2%

CHI +48.0%

GSW -24.2%

CHI +3.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	CHI	NBA	GSW	CHI	NBA
this game	14.7	15.0	15.3	85.8	88.9	106.0
season	13.4	14.7		106.5	101.9
opponent	15.7	14.8		103.9	110.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
GSW	15.3	13.9	15.2	15.3	13.0	14.7
CHI	15.3	13.8	14.8	16.0	15.5	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anthony Randolph	40	38	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	-0.07	1	-6	7	15.2	14.4	0.86	13.5	15.8	-2.35
Vladimir Radmanovic	63	65	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.29	7	-12	19	14.8	14.6	0.27	15.4	14.4	0.93
CJ Watson	66	68	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.30	3	-8	11	14.3	15.4	-1.14	15.1	14.9	0.16
Corey Maggette	64	67	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.32	3	-8	11	14.2	15.5	-1.26	15.1	14.8	0.35
Stephen Curry	54	55	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.06	-8	3	-11	15.6	13.8	1.71	14.7	15.3	-0.56
Mikki Moore	53	54	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.01	-16	11	-27	14.5	14.9	-0.45	15.6	14.4	1.15
Monta Ellis	92	93	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.35	-5	0	-5	14.5	15.9	-1.40	15.1	14.3	0.85
Anthony Morrow	98	100	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	-0.36	-10	5	-15	14.9	12.7	2.13	14.9	15.7	-0.81

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
John Salmons	90	89	0.73	-0.23	0.96	0.35	13	-8	21	14.8	15.8	-1.00	14.7	15.1	-0.41
Joakim Noah	89	87	0.68	-0.18	0.87	0.48	7	-2	9	15.2	14.1	1.15	14.8	14.4	0.36
Luol Deng	107	104	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.37	5	0	5	15.0	10.0	5.05	14.7	16.5	-1.82
Derrick Rose	87	84	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.35	1	4	-3	15.8	11.5	4.32	14.4	15.9	-1.50
Kirk Hinrich	70	68	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.36	-2	7	-9	15.1	14.8	0.32	14.6	14.9	-0.24
Taj Gibson	35	36	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.04	-2	7	-9	13.2	15.9	-2.66	15.3	14.4	0.89
Brad Miller	54	53	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	-0.18	5	0	5	15.1	14.9	0.30	15.2	14.3	0.87
James Johnson	8	9	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	-0.00	-2	7	-9	10.7	15.3	-4.59	13.8	14.8	-1.03

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.5,0.53,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.46,0.42,0.41,0.46,0.34,0.39,0.39,0.3,0.32,0.28,0.3,0.39,0.33,0.35,0.52,0.59,0.73,0.77,0.68,0.46,0.43,0.52,0.62,0.56,0.53,0.54,0.46,0.55,0.55,0.78,0.58,0.54,0.55,0.72,0.85,0.95,1
Game		Similarity Score
NOH 110, DEN 116	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.47,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.48,0.38,0.42,0.38,0.31,0.37,0.32,0.41,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.46,0.5,0.43,0.37,0.36,0.33,0.3,0.38,0.48,0.47,0.63,0.63,0.6,0.54,0.62,0.82,0.87,0.68,0.74,0.71,0.46,0.55,0.37,0.76,0.73,0.54,0.61,0.72,0.91,0.99,1	89.6%
DEN 105, DAL 108	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.4,0.41,0.41,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.44,0.37,0.38,0.45,0.38,0.44,0.37,0.34,0.44,0.39,0.44,0.42,0.3,0.3,0.25,0.18,0.25,0.22,0.42,0.52,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.62,0.56,0.54,0.52,0.57,0.53,0.68,0.59,0.54,0.54,0.61,0.79,0.45,0.42,0.46,0.39,0.55,0.67,0.91,1	89.4%
ORL 119, POR 125	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.52,0.56,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.54,0.48,0.46,0.56,0.44,0.44,0.36,0.25,0.21,0.25,0.35,0.36,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.62,0.66,0.63,0.68,0.5,0.57,0.38,0.25,0.37,0.41,0.47,0.33,0.53,0.79,0.66,0.92,0.46,0.53,0.71,0.68,0.98,1	89.0%