NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	119		Excitement	9.7 [83]		MVP	Wesley Matthews (POR): +39.3%
Portland Trail Blazers	125		Comeback	3.8 [574]		LVP	Arron Afflalo (ORL): -8.6%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
JJ Redick	0.32	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.18,0.27,0.27,0.36,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.32,0.41,0.32,0.32	0.23	0.12	0.03	17	83%	0.34	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Jameer Nelson	0.19	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.09,-0.04,-0.01,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.21,0.21,0.19	-0.02	0.21	-0.00	21	44%	0.22	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.03
Nikola Vucevic	0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.07,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.01	0.06	0.00	16	52%	0.18	2	-0.12	1	100%	0.00
DeQuan Jones	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	6	50%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Nicholson	0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.00	5	67%	0.04	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Maurice Harkless	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ish Smith	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh McRoberts	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.07	-0.10	0.02	6	86%	0.02	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.02
Arron Afflalo	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.09	0.05	-0.13	0.01	18	57%	0.05	2	-0.13	6	83%	0.00

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Wesley Matthews	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.43,0.37,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.39	0.39	0.20	0.21	0.01	11	80%	0.39	0	0.00	8	75%	-0.01
Nicolas Batum	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,0.02,0.02,0.15,0.25,0.2,0.2,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	-0.00	0.16	0.01	14	50%	0.20	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.05
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.01,0.16,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.08	0.07	0.05	22	57%	0.15	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.01
JJ Hickson	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.10	-0.02	0.01	14	65%	0.11	1	-0.04	3	67%	-0.01
Luke Babbitt	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	5	60%	0.07	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Victor Claver	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Freeland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Damian Lillard	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.11,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.03	-0.01	17	47%	0.05	3	-0.06	4	100%	0.05
Ronnie Price	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.02	-0.04	0.00	7	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	22.6	1.8	26.2	14.6	24.0	2.8	32.2	1.8	16.6	142.6
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	2.0	17.3	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL -9.9%

POR +21.3%

POR +26.8%

POR +17.8%

ORL -6.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	POR	NBA	ORL	POR	NBA
this game	15.8	15.4	15.4	116.7	122.5	104.1
season	15.5	15.8		100.3	104.3
opponent	15.3	15.3		107.6	107.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
ORL	16.0	14.0	18.8	15.5	13.9	15.8
POR	17.5	15.5	14.6	15.8	12.1	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ish Smith	10	10	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	0.02	-1	-5	4	14.0	16.0	-1.96	17.8	15.2	2.65
Hedo Turkoglu	10	10	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.01	-1	-5	4	14.0	16.0	-1.96	17.8	15.2	2.65
Andrew Nicholson	31	31	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.02	-1	-5	4	16.5	15.4	1.08	16.8	14.8	2.00
Maurice Harkless	11	11	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	0.05	-5	-1	-4	15.5	15.8	-0.35	11.5	15.9	-4.44
JJ Redick	63	64	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.36	5	-11	16	14.8	17.3	-2.46	15.9	14.6	1.29
Arron Afflalo	91	90	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.31	-1	-5	4	15.9	14.7	1.16	15.1	17.5	-2.37
DeQuan Jones	36	36	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.07	-11	5	-16	16.9	15.2	1.69	15.0	15.6	-0.59
Josh McRoberts	76	76	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.34	-2	-4	2	15.4	16.9	-1.55	15.3	15.8	-0.58
Nikola Vucevic	90	90	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.25	-8	2	-10	16.2	12.7	3.42	15.4	15.7	-0.38
Jameer Nelson	92	92	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.35	-5	-1	-4	16.0	14.0	1.96	15.2	17.8	-2.65

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nicolas Batum	88	87	0.73	-0.23	0.95	0.35	13	-7	20	14.9	18.6	-3.66	15.7	16.4	-0.74
JJ Hickson	85	87	0.71	-0.21	0.93	0.36	12	-6	18	14.3	21.1	-6.78	15.9	14.9	0.97
Damian Lillard	82	81	0.71	-0.21	0.91	0.41	10	-4	14	15.6	14.7	0.82	16.0	14.7	1.38
Wesley Matthews	81	82	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.38	9	-3	12	15.2	16.3	-1.10	15.9	15.1	0.83
LaMarcus Aldridge	82	81	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.35	8	-2	10	15.4	15.5	-0.17	15.8	15.5	0.30
Joel Freeland	12	11	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	0.03	-1	7	-8	20.9	14.7	6.24	14.9	15.9	-0.96
Victor Claver	26	24	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	-0.10	0	6	-6	17.2	14.8	2.39	15.6	15.8	-0.24
Ronnie Price	26	28	-0.36	0.86	-1.22	-0.10	-9	15	-24	15.3	15.5	-0.19	15.5	15.9	-0.32
Luke Babbitt	28	29	-0.42	0.92	-1.35	-0.07	-12	18	-30	16.8	14.9	1.94	14.9	16.1	-1.16

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.52,0.56,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.54,0.48,0.46,0.56,0.44,0.44,0.36,0.25,0.21,0.25,0.35,0.36,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.62,0.66,0.63,0.68,0.5,0.57,0.38,0.25,0.37,0.41,0.47,0.33,0.53,0.79,0.66,0.92,0.46,0.53,0.71,0.68,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 112, PHI 117	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.47,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.57,0.53,0.56,0.48,0.42,0.49,0.51,0.62,0.57,0.52,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.41,0.36,0.46,0.43,0.31,0.3,0.33,0.39,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.66,0.63,0.56,0.5,0.34,0.3,0.29,0.28,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.55,0.45,0.57,0.85,0.54,0.45,0.63,0.85,0.83,1	89.3%
DAL 108, LAL 112	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.39,0.35,0.38,0.41,0.37,0.35,0.31,0.32,0.37,0.36,0.33,0.4,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.4,0.44,0.36,0.33,0.41,0.33,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.42,0.52,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.54,0.62,0.53,0.38,0.42,0.31,0.24,0.34,0.38,0.72,0.69,0.73,0.54,0.47,0.46,0.78,0.92,1	89.1%
DAL 106, DET 113	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.5,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.43,0.53,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.36,0.46,0.47,0.44,0.51,0.56,0.55,0.64,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.34,0.39,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.66,0.6,0.52,0.62,0.57,0.52,0.38,0.42,0.59,0.53,0.54,0.45,0.63,0.77,0.84,0.5,0.61,0.63,0.76,0.98,1	89.1%