NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	122		Excitement	10.6 [42]		MVP	J.R. Smith (DEN): +80.2%
Denver Nuggets	123		Comeback	14.5 [110]		LVP	Joey Graham (DEN): -30.9%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Corey Maggette	0.46	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.21,0.24,0.28,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.31,0.31,0.37,0.39,0.39,0.46,0.46	0.25	0.19	-0.01	16	80%	0.46	1	0.00	12	92%	0.07
Stephen Curry	0.32	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.4,0.32,0.32	0.23	0.12	0.03	13	100%	0.38	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Monta Ellis	0.27	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.06,-0.02,0.03,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.27	0.03	0.24	-0.00	29	52%	0.41	4	-0.13	4	100%	0.03
Anthony Morrow	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.04	-0.00	7	57%	0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Vladimir Radmanovic	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andris Biedrins	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.02	0.00	3	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.05
Chris Hunter	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Devean George	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Randolph	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.17,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	0.01	0.02	8	58%	0.04	5	-0.12	3	100%	0.02
CJ Watson	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.06	-0.05	0.00	6	17%	-0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ronny Turiaf	-0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.13	-0.02	-0.12	-0.01	1	50%	0.01	1	-0.14	2	100%	0.01

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
J.R. Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.09,0.8	0.80	-0.03	0.82	-0.01	20	47%	0.94	3	-0.14	5	80%	0.08
Kenyon Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.29	0.29	0.10	0.20	0.01	18	66%	0.42	3	-0.13	5	100%	0.03
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.04	0.12	-0.00	5	64%	0.17	0	0.00	4	100%	0.13
Malik Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.04	0.06	-0.00	3	75%	0.11	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Ty Lawson	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.10	-0.02	0.00	12	75%	0.20	3	-0.13	4	50%	-0.02
Arron Afflalo	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.01	0.01	7	67%	0.10	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Nene	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.12	-0.02	-0.01	10	39%	0.00	5	-0.14	3	33%	-0.03
Joey Graham	0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.31	-0.31	0.01	-0.32	-0.00	15	54%	-0.20	3	-0.11	7	86%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.2	2.4	30.4	16.7	27.2	2.4	40.0	146.5
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW -48.7%

DEN +99.6%

DEN +29.6%

GSW -17.2%

GSW -13.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	DEN	NBA	GSW	DEN	NBA
this game	12.9	15.2	15.3	118.4	120.6	106.0
season	13.4	14.4		106.5	110.3
opponent	15.5	14.8		106.4	110.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	11.5	12.7	12.4	15.3	12.9
DEN	15.1	14.0	16.4	15.3	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Vladimir Radmanovic	18	17	0.07	-0.57	0.64	0.01	2	-3	5	12.8	12.9	-0.10	19.8	14.3	5.55
Anthony Morrow	46	49	0.06	-0.56	0.62	0.20	-5	4	-9	13.6	12.4	1.18	15.3	15.1	0.25
Devean George	6	6	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	0.04	-3	2	-5	13.2	12.9	0.27	9.3	15.6	-6.23
Chris Hunter	17	17	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.07	-5	4	-9	12.5	13.0	-0.46	12.4	15.8	-3.34
Andris Biedrins	32	33	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.18	2	-3	5	14.3	12.3	1.99	17.8	14.0	3.79
Corey Maggette	71	68	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.42	8	-9	17	12.5	13.7	-1.17	15.5	14.7	0.78
Monta Ellis	97	95	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.52	4	-5	9	12.9	13.2	-0.27	15.6	9.3	6.35
Anthony Randolph	49	50	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.24	-6	5	-11	12.2	13.6	-1.43	14.6	15.8	-1.17
CJ Watson	42	41	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.37	-2	1	-3	14.0	12.2	1.84	14.7	15.6	-0.90
Ronny Turiaf	50	47	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.48	1	-2	3	12.3	13.5	-1.27	13.7	16.5	-2.85
Stephen Curry	87	87	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.48	-1	0	-1	12.7	13.9	-1.21	14.9	16.7	-1.72

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nene	78	79	0.91	-0.41	1.32	0.59	11	-10	21	14.1	18.8	-4.70	12.6	13.9	-1.25
Joey Graham	67	68	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.52	5	-4	9	13.6	18.3	-4.66	12.5	13.7	-1.13
J.R. Smith	67	68	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.35	6	-5	11	15.8	14.0	1.86	13.6	11.5	2.12
Arron Afflalo	56	57	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.48	-1	2	-3	15.2	15.2	-0.04	12.4	13.5	-1.10
Kenyon Martin	85	86	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.43	-8	9	-17	14.9	16.9	-2.02	12.5	15.2	-2.78
Malik Allen	40	41	0.13	0.37	-0.23	0.10	1	0	1	18.1	13.3	4.86	14.4	11.9	2.54
Anthony Carter	38	38	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	0.03	-6	7	-13	17.9	13.6	4.38	14.8	11.8	3.02
Ty Lawson	79	78	-0.22	0.72	-0.95	-0.14	-3	4	-7	14.7	17.0	-2.39	12.1	15.6	-3.55

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.5,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.41,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.46,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.29,0.44,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.55,0.77,0.64,0.52,0.64,0.55,0.59,0.52,0.59,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.57,0.67,0.67,0.81,0.87,0.69,0.4,0.25,0.29,0.15,0.26,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 89, MIA 91	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.46,0.54,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.46,0.56,0.59,0.58,0.61,0.56,0.54,0.65,0.77,0.75,0.71,0.7,0.58,0.59,0.65,0.63,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.57,0.71,0.76,0.73,0.53,0.65,0.62,0.39,0.37,0.23,0.27,1	90.1%
DEN 103, UTA 107	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.56,0.53,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.53,0.49,0.55,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.47,0.49,0.46,0.41,0.36,0.38,0.44,0.46,0.54,0.55,0.66,0.67,0.76,0.73,0.82,0.68,0.78,0.8,0.81,0.75,0.66,0.66,0.75,0.62,0.72,0.7,0.54,0.4,0.38,0.36,0.16,0.42,1	89.6%
NJN 80, MIA 81	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.53,0.5,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.46,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.35,0.41,0.32,0.34,0.41,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.58,0.57,0.64,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.67,0.64,0.54,0.57,0.43,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.41,0.33,0.31,0.37,0.43,0.26,1	89.2%