NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	103		Excitement	8.3 [203]		MVP	Gordon Hayward (UTA): +67.9%
Utah Jazz	107		Comeback	5.4 [282]		LVP	Earl Watson (UTA): -22.4%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Andersen	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.04	0.06	0.00	1	100%	0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.03
Wilson Chandler	0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.14,0.14,0.08,0.08,0.06	0.11	-0.05	-0.01	20	57%	0.08	1	-0.01	7	86%	0.03
Melvin Ely	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	-0.01	3	60%	0.01	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.01
Ty Lawson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.00	0.01	5	60%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Al Harrington	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.14,0.04,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	0.01	14	44%	0.07	1	-0.09	6	100%	0.03
Gary Forbes	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,-0.03	0.05	-0.08	0.00	11	68%	0.19	3	-0.22	3	100%	0.02
Kosta Koufos	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	11	64%	0.09	4	-0.14	0	0%	0.00
J.R. Smith	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.09	-0.10	-0.04	-0.04	12	50%	0.24	6	-0.33	4	75%	0.01

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gordon Hayward	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.3,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.51,0.51,0.63,0.68	0.68	0.30	0.39	0.01	17	87%	0.71	1	-0.03	5	100%	0.09
Al Jefferson	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.17	0.17	0.01	0.11	-0.05	15	53%	0.28	2	-0.11	2	50%	-0.03
Jeremy Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.03	0.00	3	87%	0.09	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Francisco Elson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Favors	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.02	0.01	10	52%	0.02	1	-0.02	3	67%	0.01
Paul Millsap	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	9	55%	0.04	2	-0.07	4	75%	-0.01
Devin Harris	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.18,-0.18,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.03	-0.09	-0.01	17	50%	0.08	4	-0.19	8	87%	-0.02
Earl Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.22	-0.13	-0.10	-0.00	4	20%	-0.07	4	-0.16	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.4	2.5	27.2	14.8	25.4	2.3	30.3	125.8
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

UTA +28.6%

UTA +8.6%

UTA +4.3%

UTA +8.9%

DEN -0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	UTA	NBA	DEN	UTA	NBA
this game	14.5	16.0	15.5	108.4	113.8	105.7
season	14.3	15.9		110.7	106.4
opponent	15.3	15.5		108.2	106.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	12.2	15.3	15.5	15.2	14.5
UTA	16.6	16.0	14.5	16.8	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Melvin Ely	30	29	0.10	-0.60	0.69	-0.02	4	-8	12	15.4	14.1	1.32	15.0	16.4	-1.43
Ty Lawson	27	28	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	0.02	-1	-3	2	12.8	15.2	-2.35	17.5	15.3	2.20
Kosta Koufos	52	51	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.11	-7	3	-10	14.5	14.4	0.10	16.9	14.9	2.08
Chris Andersen	59	58	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.38	9	-13	22	14.8	14.0	0.80	15.3	17.1	-1.82
Wilson Chandler	84	82	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.37	-1	-3	2	13.9	18.7	-4.79	15.4	20.0	-4.60
Gary Forbes	81	81	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.44	-5	1	-6	14.7	13.4	1.33	16.6	12.5	4.09
J.R. Smith	74	74	-0.62	0.12	-0.73	-0.32	-10	6	-16	15.2	12.1	3.02	15.6	17.2	-1.60
Al Harrington	68	67	-0.77	0.27	-1.04	-0.50	-9	5	-14	14.2	15.3	-1.07	16.1	15.8	0.24

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Devin Harris	80	82	0.74	-0.24	0.97	0.35	13	-9	22	15.8	17.1	-1.36	14.5	14.4	0.13
Gordon Hayward	78	77	0.72	-0.22	0.94	0.60	4	0	4	16.8	12.2	4.58	15.0	12.4	2.60
Al Jefferson	66	67	0.69	-0.19	0.88	0.37	11	-7	18	15.7	16.8	-1.13	14.3	15.0	-0.72
Paul Millsap	78	80	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.36	5	-1	6	16.1	15.4	0.74	14.3	15.4	-1.07
Earl Watson	56	56	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.28	-1	5	-6	15.6	16.6	-0.99	14.5	14.5	-0.03
Francisco Elson	14	13	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	-0.02	0	4	-4	14.9	16.2	-1.33	14.7	14.5	0.23
Jeremy Evans	37	37	-0.16	0.66	-0.81	-0.10	-2	6	-8	15.3	16.4	-1.10	14.6	14.4	0.25
Derrick Favors	61	63	-0.22	0.72	-0.95	0.07	-10	14	-24	16.5	15.1	1.43	14.2	15.1	-0.90

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.56,0.53,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.53,0.49,0.55,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.47,0.49,0.46,0.41,0.36,0.38,0.44,0.46,0.54,0.55,0.66,0.67,0.76,0.73,0.82,0.68,0.78,0.8,0.81,0.75,0.66,0.66,0.75,0.62,0.72,0.7,0.54,0.4,0.38,0.36,0.16,0.42,1
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 106, LAL 107	0.5,0.5,0.44,0.38,0.43,0.47,0.5,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.51,0.6,0.65,0.58,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.47,0.44,0.39,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.5,0.49,0.63,0.61,0.55,0.58,0.68,0.74,0.86,0.93,0.91,0.93,0.85,0.78,0.66,0.76,0.63,0.64,0.65,0.39,0.26,0.28,0.22,0.42,1	90.6%
DAL 87, NJN 88	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.43,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.26,0.25,0.27,0.33,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.65,0.72,0.75,0.77,0.79,0.79,0.78,0.79,0.66,0.67,0.56,0.78,0.74,0.85,0.87,0.68,0.59,0.65,0.27,0.31,0.45,0.14,0.27,1	90.3%
MIL 92, ORL 93	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.44,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.51,0.47,0.56,0.61,0.56,0.64,0.59,0.58,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.6,0.68,0.67,0.75,0.81,0.82,0.91,0.92,0.9,0.88,0.88,0.78,0.7,0.75,0.67,0.68,0.51,0.34,0.46,0.39,0.45,0.32,0.42,1	90.0%