NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	86		Excitement	4.9 [818]		MVP	Jarrett Jack (TOR): +16.9%
Toronto Raptors	91		Comeback	1.3 [506]		LVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): -13.1%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tony Parker	0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1	0.11	0.01	0.03	11	74%	0.13	2	-0.04	9	44%	-0.06
Richard Jefferson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.00	0.02	10	55%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Keith Bogans	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.01	5	60%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Theo Ratliff	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeJuan Blair	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.01	0.01	7	50%	0.04	3	-0.06	2	0%	-0.03
Roger Mason Jr.	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	5	42%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
George Hill	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.01	0.02	9	33%	-0.08	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Antonio McDyess	-0.09	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	0.00	6	17%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.08,-0.09,-0.02,-0.09,-0.13	-0.06	-0.05	0.02	22	40%	-0.11	1	-0.02	9	56%	-0.04

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jarrett Jack	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.08	0.06	-0.03	8	67%	0.22	2	-0.05	8	100%	0.03
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	0.00	0.01	8	65%	0.06	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Marcus Banks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	-0.00	5	80%	0.08	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Andrea Bargnani	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.06	0.02	-0.04	16	39%	0.04	1	-0.04	6	67%	-0.01
Antoine Wright	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.01	6	57%	0.03	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.00
Amir Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.01	2	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Sonny Weems	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.03	-0.03	-0.07	0.02	-0.01	24	44%	0.04	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.03
Marco Belinelli	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.01	-0.02	5	39%	0.01	2	-0.04	8	87%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.6	29.3	16.3	23.4	2.4	44.3	142.6
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +45.0%

TOR +12.4%

TOR +2.9%

SAS -10.5%

TOR +0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	TOR	NBA	SAS	TOR	NBA
this game	15.9	14.8	15.3	92.5	95.8	106.0
season	15.9	15.0		108.2	109.6
opponent	15.5	15.1		111.5	103.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	17.2	18.3	15.0	13.6	15.9
TOR	13.5	15.2	17.0	13.6	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Theo Ratliff	16	17	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	0.01	-2	-3	1	16.1	15.8	0.22	14.8	14.8	0.07
Keith Bogans	43	46	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.15	3	-8	11	14.8	16.8	-2.07	15.2	14.4	0.74
Antonio McDyess	33	34	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.02	-3	-2	-1	17.9	14.8	3.10	15.0	14.7	0.31
DeJuan Blair	35	37	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.05	-4	-1	-3	16.1	15.7	0.37	14.4	15.0	-0.55
George Hill	25	25	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	0.07	-11	6	-17	14.8	16.3	-1.42	12.7	15.5	-2.78
Tony Parker	68	70	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.41	4	-9	13	16.3	14.8	1.42	15.5	12.7	2.78
Roger Mason Jr.	53	53	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.27	-1	-4	3	16.4	15.1	1.28	14.1	15.6	-1.44
Tim Duncan	57	57	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.38	1	-6	7	15.5	16.5	-0.96	15.3	14.0	1.32
Manu Ginobili	60	60	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.25	-6	1	-7	15.8	16.1	-0.28	14.7	14.9	-0.19
Richard Jefferson	75	76	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	-0.33	-6	1	-7	15.5	17.6	-2.14	14.7	15.1	-0.36

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Antoine Wright	68	65	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.22	7	-2	9	15.0	14.3	0.66	16.4	14.8	1.57
Marco Belinelli	53	50	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.18	8	-3	11	14.1	15.6	-1.52	15.6	16.2	-0.61
Chris Bosh	75	75	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.32	3	2	1	15.4	12.2	3.19	15.5	17.4	-1.94
Jarrett Jack	68	67	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.36	0	5	-5	15.2	13.8	1.38	15.3	17.3	-1.93
Andrea Bargnani	82	81	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.28	2	3	-1	14.6	15.8	-1.25	15.8	16.6	-0.81
Sonny Weems	34	34	0.17	0.33	-0.15	0.26	-3	8	-11	14.2	15.1	-0.88	15.1	16.3	-1.25
Amir Johnson	25	24	0.17	0.33	-0.15	-0.06	8	-3	11	14.1	15.0	-0.93	17.2	15.4	1.84
Marcus Banks	27	26	0.14	0.36	-0.22	-0.00	5	0	5	13.8	15.2	-1.38	17.3	15.3	1.93
DeMar DeRozan	43	43	0.06	0.44	-0.39	0.20	-5	10	-15	15.3	14.3	0.98	16.2	15.6	0.61

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.5,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.66,0.71,0.72,0.75,0.83,0.82,0.82,0.77,0.71,0.79,0.81,0.86,0.86,0.88,0.8,0.87,0.83,0.91,0.94,0.93,0.94,0.91,0.88,0.94,0.92,0.92,0.96,0.89,0.9,0.83,0.91,0.87,0.97,0.94,0.9,0.9,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 77, UTA 86	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.48,0.52,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.55,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.66,0.69,0.75,0.69,0.78,0.8,0.85,0.8,0.82,0.85,0.86,0.88,0.86,0.86,0.92,0.94,0.94,0.94,0.87,0.89,0.93,0.89,0.92,0.92,0.92,0.94,0.94,0.93,0.89,0.88,0.84,0.93,0.9,0.98,1,1	95.3%
MIL 111, CHI 114	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.48,0.5,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.64,0.68,0.68,0.68,0.78,0.79,0.83,0.82,0.87,0.83,0.8,0.8,0.79,0.82,0.84,0.81,0.8,0.85,0.84,0.86,0.87,0.94,0.96,0.98,0.97,0.95,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.97,0.91,0.74,0.8,0.83,0.95,0.96,1,0.98,1	95.2%
DEN 92, NOH 100	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.59,0.63,0.62,0.67,0.7,0.72,0.71,0.73,0.77,0.78,0.78,0.82,0.81,0.79,0.83,0.82,0.84,0.81,0.82,0.82,0.87,0.81,0.85,0.88,0.91,0.88,0.91,0.93,0.92,0.96,0.96,0.89,0.88,0.94,0.89,0.86,0.95,0.99,1,1,1	95.1%