NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	111		Excitement	4.8 [839]		MVP	Tyrus Thomas (CHI): +10.8%
Chicago Bulls	114		Comeback	1.2 [1191]		LVP	Desmond Mason (MIL): -6.2%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bobby Simmons	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08	0.01	0.04	-0.03	6	58%	0.09	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Charlie Villanueva	0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.09	-0.01	0.03	23	52%	0.07	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.01
Michael Ruffin	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	4	75%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Yi Jianlian	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.06	0.00	0.05	9	58%	0.01	0	0.00	6	100%	0.02
Royal Ivey	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dan Gadzuric	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Redd	-0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02	0.10	-0.04	0.08	27	56%	0.02	3	-0.05	5	100%	0.03
Ramon Sessions	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	5	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Mo Williams	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	13	50%	0.03	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Desmond Mason	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	6	37%	-0.02	2	-0.04	4	50%	-0.02

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyrus Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.08	0.03	0.01	3	83%	0.11	0	0.00	6	100%	0.04
Thabo Sefolosha	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.08	0.02	0.01	4	90%	0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Joakim Noah	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.03	-0.02	13	58%	0.12	3	-0.05	5	80%	0.01
Larry Hughes	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06	0.06	0.08	0.00	0.03	13	63%	0.11	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
Chris Duhon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	1	150%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ben Gordon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.00	0.01	-0.04	10	42%	0.04	0	0.00	6	100%	0.02
Andres Nocioni	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.01	11	63%	0.11	4	-0.07	5	100%	0.01
Luol Deng	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03	0.03	-0.05	0.03	-0.05	15	47%	0.07	3	-0.04	4	50%	0.01
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	10	41%	-0.06	0	0.00	7	57%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	2.6	30.4	15.6	24.3	3.3	38.3	137.7
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +38.0%

CHI +6.7%

MIL -3.8%

CHI +2.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	CHI	NBA	MIL	CHI	NBA
this game	15.5	13.9	15.4	113.3	116.3	105.7
season	15.8	15.0		103.4	102.2
opponent	15.5	15.2		105.4	110.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	17.1	15.7	15.5	13.9	15.5
CHI	15.6	12.0	13.3	14.9	13.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ramon Sessions	30	31	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	-0.52	17	-20	37	13.7	16.3	-2.67	15.5	13.1	2.32
Dan Gadzuric	13	12	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	0.03	-5	2	-7	16.3	15.4	0.91	11.7	14.2	-2.41
Yi Jianlian	51	49	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.47	10	-13	23	14.8	16.3	-1.45	14.0	13.7	0.31
Royal Ivey	16	15	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	0.05	-9	6	-15	17.1	15.2	1.92	11.4	14.3	-2.91
Desmond Mason	53	54	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.03	-7	4	-11	15.9	15.1	0.84	14.0	13.7	0.30
Bobby Simmons	42	41	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.36	4	-7	11	15.1	15.8	-0.70	13.9	13.8	0.06
Charlie Villanueva	80	81	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.42	5	-8	13	15.4	16.2	-0.86	14.3	11.7	2.62
Michael Redd	93	93	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.44	2	-5	7	15.3	19.2	-3.88	14.0	10.8	3.23
Mo Williams	60	60	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	0.06	-16	13	-29	16.3	14.3	1.92	13.3	14.8	-1.55
Michael Ruffin	52	54	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	0.04	-16	13	-29	16.2	14.7	1.55	13.5	14.3	-0.78

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kirk Hinrich	75	73	0.69	-0.19	0.89	0.22	16	-13	29	13.8	14.1	-0.29	15.8	14.7	1.13
Larry Hughes	68	66	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.27	9	-6	15	13.4	14.8	-1.39	15.6	15.4	0.22
Joakim Noah	79	79	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.33	5	-2	7	14.1	12.8	1.27	15.2	16.7	-1.44
Luol Deng	85	84	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.42	-2	5	-7	14.1	12.1	2.06	15.3	16.8	-1.48
Andres Nocioni	42	43	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.04	10	-7	17	13.6	14.1	-0.48	15.6	15.5	0.15
Thabo Sefolosha	37	38	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.37	-7	10	-17	13.0	14.4	-1.35	14.8	16.0	-1.15
Tyrus Thomas	40	41	0.15	0.35	-0.21	-0.00	5	-2	7	14.6	13.3	1.32	17.2	14.3	2.88
Ben Gordon	40	41	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	0.17	-6	9	-15	14.1	13.7	0.44	15.3	15.7	-0.43
Chris Duhon	24	25	-0.19	0.69	-0.88	0.25	-15	18	-33	13.5	14.0	-0.43	14.7	15.8	-1.13

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.48,0.5,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.64,0.68,0.68,0.68,0.78,0.79,0.83,0.82,0.87,0.83,0.8,0.8,0.79,0.82,0.84,0.81,0.8,0.85,0.84,0.86,0.87,0.94,0.96,0.98,0.97,0.95,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.97,0.91,0.74,0.8,0.83,0.95,0.96,1,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 86, TOR 91	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.5,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.66,0.71,0.72,0.75,0.83,0.82,0.82,0.77,0.71,0.79,0.81,0.86,0.86,0.88,0.8,0.87,0.83,0.91,0.94,0.93,0.94,0.91,0.88,0.94,0.92,0.92,0.96,0.89,0.9,0.83,0.91,0.87,0.97,0.94,0.9,0.9,1	95.2%
MEM 91, WAS 100	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.46,0.53,0.52,0.57,0.57,0.53,0.63,0.63,0.68,0.65,0.72,0.85,0.82,0.79,0.85,0.89,0.88,0.87,0.86,0.83,0.82,0.8,0.84,0.77,0.83,0.89,0.95,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.94,0.96,0.94,0.88,0.97,0.97,0.99,1,1,1	94.9%
DEN 92, NOH 100	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.59,0.63,0.62,0.67,0.7,0.72,0.71,0.73,0.77,0.78,0.78,0.82,0.81,0.79,0.83,0.82,0.84,0.81,0.82,0.82,0.87,0.81,0.85,0.88,0.91,0.88,0.91,0.93,0.92,0.96,0.96,0.89,0.88,0.94,0.89,0.86,0.95,0.99,1,1,1	94.9%