NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Memphis Grizzlies	101		Excitement	7.6 [274]		MVP	Erick Dampier (DAL): +19.9%
Dallas Mavericks	106		Comeback	2.8 [809]		LVP	Mike Conley (MEM): -22.4%

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Zach Randolph	0.16	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.11,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.21,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.15	0.01	0.00	19	63%	0.19	1	-0.03	5	60%	-0.01
Sam Young	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.04	0.00	6	65%	0.11	1	-0.02	5	60%	-0.02
Hasheem Thabeet	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeMarre Carroll	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marc Gasol	-0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.00	-0.02	0.02	10	52%	0.03	2	-0.07	5	60%	-0.02
Rudy Gay	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,-0.02,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.09	-0.01	-0.10	-0.03	22	46%	-0.02	1	-0.07	4	50%	-0.04
O.J. Mayo	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.22,-0.24,-0.24,-0.15,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.02,-0.11,-0.1	-0.04	-0.02	0.04	14	50%	0.11	4	-0.21	8	100%	0.09
Jamaal Tinsley	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.08	-0.04	-0.01	6	17%	-0.07	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Mike Conley	-0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.22,-0.22	-0.09	-0.13	0.01	10	27%	-0.20	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Erick Dampier	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.12	0.10	0.02	6	93%	0.20	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Josh Howard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.1	0.10	0.05	0.06	0.00	6	69%	0.12	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.07,0.07,0.17,0.17,0.11,0.1	0.10	0.07	0.05	0.02	18	55%	0.12	1	-0.03	6	100%	0.04
Shawn Marion	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.07	0.05	0.02	0.00	7	59%	0.07	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Kris Humphries	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.02	0.00	2	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Jason Kidd	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.03	-0.00	10	50%	0.06	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.04	-0.01	16	62%	0.17	4	-0.18	0	0%	0.00
Tim Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	50%	0.01	1	-0.04	2	0%	-0.03
Jose Juan Barea	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	13	41%	-0.04	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.6	2.4	27.5	16.7	28.8	1.8	35.2	136.0
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +74.2%

MEM -17.2%

MEM -24.5%

DAL +16.4%

DAL +1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MEM	DAL	NBA	MEM	DAL	NBA
this game	16.8	15.1	15.3	112.2	116.5	106.0
season	15.4	15.2		106.8	107.2
opponent	15.5	15.0		104.6	108.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MEM	14.3	18.3	20.2	15.1	16.8
DAL	15.7	13.8	16.8	14.2	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jamaal Tinsley	28	31	0.22	-0.72	0.94	-0.02	8	-13	21	16.6	16.8	-0.27	15.8	14.7	1.16
Hasheem Thabeet	18	21	0.14	-0.65	0.79	-0.00	5	-10	15	17.2	16.6	0.58	16.4	14.7	1.70
DeMarre Carroll	1	2	0.05	-0.55	0.61	0.05	0	-5	5	22.0	16.7	5.30	0.5	15.4	-14.90
Sam Young	41	42	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.07	3	-8	11	17.3	16.3	0.99	15.0	15.1	-0.14
Rudy Gay	78	79	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.40	4	-9	13	16.3	19.8	-3.55	16.0	8.9	7.10
Zach Randolph	81	81	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.41	-6	1	-7	16.3	20.9	-4.59	15.5	11.6	3.91
O.J. Mayo	77	76	-0.66	0.16	-0.81	-0.31	-12	7	-19	16.8	16.3	0.52	14.5	17.8	-3.26
Marc Gasol	64	63	-0.69	0.19	-0.87	-0.28	-14	9	-23	17.3	15.5	1.77	14.1	17.3	-3.24
Mike Conley	62	60	-0.72	0.22	-0.94	-0.34	-13	8	-21	16.8	16.6	0.27	14.7	15.8	-1.16

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dirk Nowitzki	76	75	0.74	-0.24	0.98	0.24	17	-12	29	14.9	16.1	-1.26	17.3	14.0	3.31
Erick Dampier	64	66	0.71	-0.21	0.93	0.30	14	-9	23	14.2	17.2	-3.00	17.1	15.8	1.31
Jason Kidd	66	67	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.34	8	-3	11	14.7	16.1	-1.38	17.1	15.7	1.42
Shawn Marion	48	48	0.36	0.14	0.21	-0.02	13	-8	21	14.4	15.8	-1.44	17.6	15.8	1.73
Jose Juan Barea	53	52	0.26	0.24	0.03	-0.09	12	-7	19	15.9	13.9	1.98	17.0	16.4	0.67
Jason Terry	63	61	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.45	-10	15	-25	14.8	15.7	-0.97	16.1	18.1	-1.99
Josh Howard	47	46	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	0.49	-18	23	-41	16.0	14.0	2.00	15.2	18.4	-3.24
Kris Humphries	15	14	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.01	-3	8	-11	15.7	14.9	0.79	16.8	16.7	0.04
Tim Thomas	23	21	-0.18	0.68	-0.87	0.05	-8	13	-21	17.3	14.3	2.92	15.3	17.2	-1.92

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.6,0.6,0.61,0.55,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.35,0.32,0.31,0.34,0.31,0.31,0.37,0.34,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.39,0.49,0.42,0.43,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.58,0.68,0.72,0.66,0.71,0.71,0.58,0.69,0.86,0.8,0.68,0.59,0.65,0.72,0.81,0.89,0.77,0.91,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 85, MIA 92	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.43,0.49,0.56,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.39,0.44,0.48,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.58,0.59,0.66,0.73,0.67,0.6,0.62,0.7,0.71,0.76,0.73,0.69,0.76,0.78,0.86,0.85,0.97,0.99,1	92.2%
CHI 79, MIA 92	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.47,0.5,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.39,0.38,0.36,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.36,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.56,0.56,0.5,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.52,0.61,0.58,0.64,0.59,0.66,0.7,0.74,0.54,0.66,0.66,0.72,0.68,0.69,0.76,0.73,0.9,0.95,0.9,1,1	92.2%
WAS 93, CHA 98	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.46,0.53,0.54,0.53,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.44,0.48,0.45,0.4,0.36,0.35,0.35,0.37,0.44,0.39,0.36,0.44,0.46,0.5,0.45,0.52,0.45,0.58,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.66,0.74,0.72,0.62,0.74,0.74,0.75,0.81,0.83,0.76,0.71,0.89,0.89,0.97,0.96,1	91.8%