NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	79		Excitement	6.0 [613]		MVP	Rod Strickland (MIA): +12.6%
Miami Heat	92		Comeback	2.1 [988]		LVP	Metta World Peace (CHI): -23.0%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brad Miller	0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.09	-0.01	0.02	14	63%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Fred Hoiberg	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.02	0.03	-0.03	5	30%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Trenton Hassell	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.03	0.00	5	50%	0.06	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Ollie	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	6	54%	0.02	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.01
Eddie Robinson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.07	0.01	-0.03	9	45%	0.01	3	-0.05	2	50%	-0.00
Charles Oakley	-0.06	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	0.01	5	40%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Fizer	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	7	43%	-0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Eddy Curry	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	3	33%	-0.01	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Ron Mercer	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.14	-0.00	-0.01	6	0%	-0.08	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Metta World Peace	-0.23	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.27,-0.27,-0.24,-0.24,-0.23	-0.05	-0.12	0.07	15	57%	-0.12	4	-0.11	12	42%	-0.14

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rod Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.08	0.06	0.02	10	83%	0.23	3	-0.10	4	100%	0.02
LaPhonso Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.03	-0.00	8	56%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,0.04	0.04	-0.01	0.07	0.02	16	53%	0.07	2	-0.04	6	83%	-0.01
Jim Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	7	67%	0.06	3	-0.07	4	100%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.04	-0.03	0.03	7	89%	0.09	4	-0.10	5	100%	0.02
Kendall Gill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	7	43%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Brian Grant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	0.01	5	60%	-0.00	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Mike James	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.13	-0.01	-0.02	4	0%	-0.06	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Vladimir Stepania	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.09	-0.04	0.00	3	20%	-0.11	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.4	2.3	28.5	16.3	24.7	1.8	35.4	132.6
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +26.7%

MIA +16.8%

MIA +8.2%

CHI -0.8%

CHI -0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	MIA	NBA	CHI	MIA	NBA
this game	15.2	15.2	15.6	82.3	98.9	102.3
season	15.6	16.5		96.3	96.6
opponent	15.8	15.6		98.2	105.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	14.5	14.8	17.2	14.7	15.2
MIA	14.2	16.5	16.2	14.1	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ron Mercer	34	30	0.17	-0.67	0.85	-0.00	6	-19	25	14.6	15.6	-0.93	14.4	15.6	-1.27
Eddy Curry	16	17	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.04	-1	-12	11	15.5	15.2	0.30	15.1	15.2	-0.13
Charles Oakley	47	42	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.02	-6	-7	1	15.3	15.2	0.14	15.3	15.1	0.20
Fred Hoiberg	34	35	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	0.09	-10	-3	-7	14.3	15.8	-1.43	15.1	15.3	-0.22
Trenton Hassell	25	26	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.13	-6	-7	1	16.7	14.7	1.99	18.6	13.9	4.70
Marcus Fizer	49	51	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.13	-7	-6	-1	15.2	15.3	-0.14	15.1	15.3	-0.20
Kevin Ollie	62	59	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.21	-5	-8	3	15.8	14.3	1.43	15.4	15.0	0.36
Metta World Peace	74	72	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.12	-9	-4	-5	14.9	16.3	-1.33	14.7	17.0	-2.23
Eddie Robinson	59	57	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	0.02	-15	2	-17	15.4	15.1	0.27	14.7	16.0	-1.31
Brad Miller	80	76	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.08	-12	-1	-11	15.2	15.5	-0.30	15.2	15.1	0.13

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eddie Jones	72	75	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.10	16	-3	19	15.6	14.0	1.64	15.7	13.8	1.84
Jim Jackson	62	62	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.09	15	-2	17	14.9	15.8	-0.87	14.6	16.4	-1.84
Alonzo Mourning	58	63	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.02	15	-2	17	15.2	15.3	-0.19	14.9	16.0	-1.14
Rod Strickland	67	71	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.13	8	5	3	15.2	15.4	-0.22	15.2	15.3	-0.04
Brian Grant	47	51	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.02	8	5	3	16.0	14.4	1.65	16.5	13.9	2.56
LaPhonso Ellis	50	48	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.08	4	9	-5	14.3	16.3	-1.92	14.0	16.5	-2.58
Mike James	26	25	0.13	0.37	-0.23	-0.01	5	8	-3	15.4	15.2	0.22	15.3	15.2	0.04
Vladimir Stepania	31	30	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.12	-1	14	-15	15.5	15.1	0.48	16.1	14.9	1.24
Kendall Gill	52	55	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.05	-5	18	-23	15.1	15.4	-0.38	15.4	15.0	0.44

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.47,0.5,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.39,0.38,0.36,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.36,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.56,0.56,0.5,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.52,0.61,0.58,0.64,0.59,0.66,0.7,0.74,0.54,0.66,0.66,0.72,0.68,0.69,0.76,0.73,0.9,0.95,0.9,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 93, LAC 97	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.45,0.46,0.35,0.42,0.44,0.36,0.44,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.4,0.4,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.59,0.6,0.68,0.54,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.68,0.79,0.85,0.78,0.81,0.84,0.95,0.98,1	94.4%
CLE 85, MIA 92	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.43,0.49,0.56,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.39,0.44,0.48,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.58,0.59,0.66,0.73,0.67,0.6,0.62,0.7,0.71,0.76,0.73,0.69,0.76,0.78,0.86,0.85,0.97,0.99,1	94.1%
WAS 93, CHA 98	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.46,0.53,0.54,0.53,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.44,0.48,0.45,0.4,0.36,0.35,0.35,0.37,0.44,0.39,0.36,0.44,0.46,0.5,0.45,0.52,0.45,0.58,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.66,0.74,0.72,0.62,0.74,0.74,0.75,0.81,0.83,0.76,0.71,0.89,0.89,0.97,0.96,1	93.7%