NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	111		Excitement	5.2 [770]		MVP	Deron Williams (UTA): +21.8%
Utah Jazz	120		Comeback	6.7 [113]		LVP	Jason Williams (ORL): -11.0%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vince Carter	0.12	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12	0.16	0.02	0.07	23	59%	0.12	0	0.00	12	92%	0.02
JJ Redick	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.03	0.01	-0.03	6	62%	0.08	1	-0.00	4	75%	0.02
Ryan Anderson	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.07	-0.01	0.00	9	80%	0.12	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.02
Dwight Howard	0.05	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.04,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	-0.01	11	62%	0.13	3	-0.08	7	86%	0.01
Matt Barnes	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.11	-0.01	0.07	10	77%	0.07	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Rashard Lewis	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	-0.00	0.02	8	53%	0.03	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.04
Brandon Bass	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcin Gortat	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Johnson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.00	-0.03	0.00	2	67%	0.01	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Mickael Pietrus	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jason Williams	-0.11	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.02	-0.02	5	20%	-0.04	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Deron Williams	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.22	0.22	0.14	0.08	0.01	18	63%	0.23	1	-0.01	15	80%	0.01
Paul Millsap	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.09	0.04	-0.00	8	70%	0.13	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Carlos Boozer	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.02	-0.00	16	50%	0.08	1	-0.02	8	50%	-0.03
CJ Miles	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.07	0.02	0.04	17	61%	0.08	2	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Mehmet Okur	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.03	-0.00	8	50%	0.05	0	0.00	12	58%	-0.04
Ronnie Brewer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	0.01	0.02	6	67%	0.07	1	-0.03	3	67%	0.00
Eric Maynor	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wesley Matthews	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	0.01	0.01	9	40%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.4	2.8	35.1	19.8	32.1	3.5	36.5	156.3
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

UTA +18.8%

ORL -6.5%

UTA +14.3%

UTA +20.1%

UTA +3.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	UTA	NBA	ORL	UTA	NBA
this game	13.2	15.9	15.3	112.1	121.2	106.0
season	15.4	15.3		110.1	109.5
opponent	15.0	15.9		104.5	101.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	12.5	15.8	14.9	10.3	13.2
UTA	18.8	15.5	14.5	14.9	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ryan Anderson	53	52	0.04	-0.54	0.59	-0.02	2	-11	13	13.0	13.5	-0.46	17.3	14.2	3.09
Matt Barnes	52	50	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.36	13	-22	35	12.8	13.7	-0.93	16.6	15.1	1.46
Marcin Gortat	7	7	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	0.05	-2	-7	5	14.4	13.1	1.29	19.9	15.6	4.30
Anthony Johnson	22	22	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.01	-1	-8	7	11.5	13.7	-2.23	19.5	14.8	4.62
Brandon Bass	4	5	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	0.02	-3	-6	3	14.5	13.2	1.32	7.4	16.3	-8.91
JJ Redick	42	42	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.13	1	-10	11	11.5	14.5	-3.09	15.1	16.4	-1.28
Mickael Pietrus	23	24	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	0.22	-17	8	-25	17.1	12.1	5.02	15.3	16.0	-0.75
Vince Carter	79	79	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.31	-2	-7	5	13.1	13.9	-0.84	15.8	15.9	-0.11
Jason Williams	64	64	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.12	-11	2	-13	14.7	10.6	4.07	14.4	18.6	-4.24
Dwight Howard	92	92	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.28	-7	-2	-5	13.1	14.4	-1.29	15.6	19.9	-4.30
Rashard Lewis	57	58	-0.76	0.26	-1.02	-0.23	-18	9	-27	12.8	13.8	-1.04	15.7	16.0	-0.28

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Deron Williams	88	86	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.17	16	-7	23	15.7	17.0	-1.28	13.5	11.8	1.68
Carlos Boozer	91	90	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.21	14	-5	19	15.8	16.7	-0.97	13.6	9.3	4.29
Ronnie Brewer	61	61	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.05	14	-5	19	16.2	15.3	0.84	14.5	11.2	3.28
Wesley Matthews	77	75	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.26	4	5	-1	16.0	15.3	0.69	13.3	12.9	0.47
Paul Millsap	64	64	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.07	8	1	7	15.7	16.1	-0.35	12.3	15.0	-2.73
CJ Miles	60	62	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.17	0	9	-9	15.3	16.7	-1.33	11.9	15.5	-3.69
Mehmet Okur	43	44	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.19	-4	13	-17	16.2	15.6	0.62	13.8	12.7	1.10
Eric Maynor	11	13	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	0.07	-7	16	-23	17.0	15.7	1.28	11.8	13.5	-1.68

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.48,0.47,0.43,0.41,0.3,0.27,0.27,0.25,0.28,0.24,0.18,0.16,0.13,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.23,0.21,0.21,0.27,0.26,0.31,0.42,0.52,0.52,0.62,0.71,0.76,0.66,0.63,0.71,0.85,0.78,0.85,0.92,0.93,0.94,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 108, PHX 125	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.4,0.37,0.31,0.32,0.26,0.22,0.24,0.2,0.12,0.17,0.18,0.23,0.2,0.22,0.3,0.3,0.37,0.34,0.31,0.33,0.36,0.58,0.62,0.74,0.75,0.76,0.8,0.82,0.85,0.87,0.88,0.92,0.97,0.97,0.94,0.97,0.98,1,1,1,1	94.0%
CLE 124, NOP 140	0.5,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.44,0.47,0.51,0.45,0.33,0.32,0.29,0.25,0.28,0.27,0.23,0.23,0.22,0.25,0.18,0.2,0.19,0.18,0.3,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.48,0.65,0.78,0.76,0.74,0.72,0.85,0.74,0.85,0.87,0.95,0.96,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1	93.7%
HOU 103, DAL 121	0.5,0.51,0.53,0.52,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.43,0.4,0.3,0.32,0.24,0.24,0.21,0.23,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.22,0.18,0.21,0.3,0.42,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.58,0.68,0.62,0.66,0.59,0.63,0.79,0.85,0.9,0.88,0.89,0.97,0.97,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1	93.3%