NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	107		Excitement	10.5 [43]		MVP	Kobe Bryant (LAL): +100.0%
Los Angeles Lakers	108		Comeback	77.1 [36]		LVP	Metta World Peace (LAL): -22.3%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0.25	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.18,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.19,-0.19,0.04,0.25	-0.07	0.32	-0.01	21	43%	0.31	2	-0.05	18	67%	0.01
Quentin Richardson	0.18	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.12,0.12,0.18	0.03	0.14	-0.01	8	65%	0.25	2	-0.07	4	100%	0.04
Michael Beasley	0.06	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.07	0.01	0.01	8	75%	0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.03	0.00	11	52%	0.08	1	-0.03	5	80%	0.00
Jamaal Magloire	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	0.00	4	58%	0.04	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.08
Dorell Wright	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.00	5	58%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Mario Chalmers	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.02	0.02	9	67%	0.09	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Jermaine O'Neal	-0.05	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.00	-0.04	0.01	10	55%	0.01	2	-0.06	9	44%	-0.09

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kobe Bryant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.25,0.29,0.26,0.26,0.16,0.29,0.29,1	1.00	0.11	0.85	-0.03	25	57%	1.09	2	-0.09	8	87%	0.05
Pau Gasol	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.18	0.18	0.09	0.10	0.01	16	58%	0.18	0	0.00	6	100%	0.05
Jordan Farmar	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.06	0.06	0.00	4	80%	0.13	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Andrew Bynum	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.17,0.17,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.07	0.03	0.01	14	54%	0.09	0	0.00	7	71%	-0.01
Lamar Odom	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.01	-0.01	2	67%	0.05	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
Sasha Vujacic	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shannon Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	5	20%	-0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.18,-0.09	-0.09	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	10	50%	-0.00	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Metta World Peace	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.22,-0.22	-0.22	-0.10	-0.12	-0.00	17	26%	-0.22	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.7	2.6	32.0	19.5	32.4	3.8	50.9	169.8
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +19.9%

LAL +15.7%

LAL +20.8%

LAL +0.9%

MIA -7.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	LAL	NBA	MIA	LAL	NBA
this game	15.0	15.3	15.3	112.6	113.7	106.0
season	16.2	15.7		104.4	107.9
opponent	15.1	15.4		103.0	102.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.8	16.7	15.0	13.0	15.0
LAL	16.2	16.0	13.2	16.0	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Udonis Haslem	53	55	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	-0.31	10	-11	21	13.7	16.7	-3.00	15.0	15.7	-0.69
Dorell Wright	39	38	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.08	2	-3	5	15.3	14.9	0.41	14.2	16.0	-1.73
Jamaal Magloire	34	34	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.02	-2	1	-3	15.2	15.0	0.21	13.4	16.3	-2.90
Quentin Richardson	75	78	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.37	9	-10	19	14.2	18.1	-3.94	15.3	14.9	0.40
Dwyane Wade	82	83	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.42	8	-9	17	14.4	19.2	-4.76	15.5	13.5	2.03
Jermaine O'Neal	61	61	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.49	1	-2	3	15.0	15.2	-0.21	16.3	13.4	2.90
Michael Beasley	55	52	-0.80	0.30	-1.10	-0.21	-20	19	-39	17.3	11.9	5.34	15.2	15.4	-0.22
Mario Chalmers	76	74	-0.87	0.37	-1.24	-0.49	-13	12	-25	15.7	12.3	3.47	15.7	13.7	2.06

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Sasha Vujacic	3	4	0.99	-0.49	1.48	0.87	4	-3	7	3.0	15.7	-12.67	5.0	15.5	-10.48
Pau Gasol	82	83	0.78	-0.28	1.06	0.49	10	-9	19	15.6	12.9	2.72	15.2	13.7	1.48
Kobe Bryant	82	84	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.43	4	-3	7	15.4	14.8	0.58	15.2	13.5	1.80
Jordan Farmar	27	28	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.17	10	-9	19	14.5	15.6	-1.11	16.4	14.5	1.92
Metta World Peace	84	81	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.36	-5	6	-11	15.0	17.0	-1.95	14.5	17.9	-3.39
Derek Fisher	61	61	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.35	-6	7	-13	16.1	13.8	2.30	14.6	15.8	-1.22
Lamar Odom	42	42	0.08	0.42	-0.35	0.11	-1	2	-3	13.5	16.6	-3.09	16.3	14.1	2.19
Shannon Brown	30	31	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.05	-2	3	-5	15.2	15.3	-0.11	15.1	15.0	0.08
Andrew Bynum	65	63	-0.67	1.17	-1.83	-0.43	-8	9	-17	16.1	13.5	2.64	14.3	16.5	-2.15

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.59,0.56,0.61,0.66,0.59,0.59,0.54,0.62,0.63,0.63,0.67,0.61,0.68,0.78,0.69,0.7,0.63,0.48,0.5,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.76,0.87,0.89,0.78,0.81,0.63,0.67,0.42,1
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 109, GSW 111	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.53,0.5,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.46,0.48,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.55,0.63,0.52,0.55,0.62,0.62,0.74,0.75,0.66,0.67,0.75,0.7,0.66,0.66,0.71,0.84,0.79,0.8,0.78,0.68,0.79,0.77,0.41,1	92.2%
DEN 107, MEM 108	0.5,0.51,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.5,0.54,0.59,0.61,0.6,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.65,0.64,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.46,0.5,0.52,0.54,0.64,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.71,0.56,0.59,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.7,0.7,0.72,0.77,0.79,0.73,0.83,0.61,0.45,0.55,0.58,1	91.6%
MIL 93, WAS 95	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.5,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.67,0.75,0.69,0.72,0.67,0.73,0.73,0.71,0.62,0.69,0.69,0.63,0.56,0.62,0.82,0.88,0.89,0.85,0.79,0.76,0.73,0.69,0.64,0.67,0.42,1	91.5%