NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	93		Excitement	7.7 [301]		MVP	Gheorghe Muresan (WAS): +12.6%
Washington Bullets	95		Comeback	1.8 [737]		LVP	Rod Strickland (WAS): -21.4%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Johnny Newman	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.02	-0.00	6	75%	0.10	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Elliot Perry	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.1,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.06	-0.03	-0.00	8	67%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Joe Wolf	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chucky Brown	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Armen Gilliam	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.12,0.12,0.12,-0.02	0.01	-0.02	0.01	10	57%	-0.02	0	0.00	10	70%	0.00
Vin Baker	-0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.02,-0.02	-0.06	0.03	-0.00	15	43%	-0.01	1	-0.02	5	60%	-0.02
Sherman Douglas	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	9	45%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Glenn Robinson	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	14	40%	-0.03	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Ray Allen	-0.14	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.05,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.2,-0.14	-0.00	-0.14	-0.00	15	50%	0.13	2	-0.27	0	0%	0.00

Washington Bullets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gheorghe Muresan	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.07	0.07	0.01	10	65%	0.13	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.02
Jaren Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.04	0.08	0.00	5	75%	0.14	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Calbert Cheaney	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1	0.10	0.03	0.08	0.01	9	62%	0.12	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.08
Lorenzo Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.05	0.00	2	100%	0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Chris Whitney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.00	0.00	2	83%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Juwan Howard	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.03	-0.02	22	43%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Harvey Grant	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tracy Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.03	0.00	8	41%	-0.07	1	-0.03	6	67%	-0.02
Rod Strickland	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.21	-0.21	-0.06	-0.16	-0.01	13	55%	-0.10	4	-0.12	7	71%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	1.7	27.0	14.7	24.0	2.5	34.5	127.6
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +2.0%

WAS +33.4%

MIL -2.4%

WAS +16.7%

WAS +0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	WAS	NBA	MIL	WAS	NBA
this game	17.2	15.5	15.6	105.7	108.0	104.4
season	16.0	14.8		103.9	104.3
opponent	15.8	15.5		103.3	106.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	17.0	18.1	15.8	18.1	17.2
WAS	15.7	13.8	15.5	17.0	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Sherman Douglas	50	50	0.01	-0.51	0.51	-0.08	3	-5	8	16.8	17.8	-1.08	15.1	16.0	-0.93
Joe Wolf	14	14	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.04	-4	2	-6	17.1	17.3	-0.19	13.6	15.9	-2.29
Armen Gilliam	78	77	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.28	6	-8	14	16.8	20.4	-3.58	16.1	11.0	5.14
Ray Allen	72	72	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.45	11	-13	24	16.9	18.7	-1.86	15.6	14.9	0.76
Chucky Brown	4	4	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.06	-7	5	-12	23.5	16.9	6.57	12.0	15.7	-3.67
Vin Baker	80	80	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.49	1	-3	4	17.3	16.1	1.21	15.6	14.6	0.96
Johnny Newman	40	41	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.35	-4	2	-6	17.0	17.4	-0.42	16.1	14.9	1.21
Elliot Perry	38	38	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	-0.36	-5	3	-8	17.8	16.8	1.08	16.0	15.1	0.93
Glenn Robinson	64	64	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.19	-11	9	-20	17.7	15.8	1.92	14.7	17.7	-2.98

Washington Bullets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lorenzo Williams	33	35	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.57	-1	3	-4	14.4	16.1	-1.72	16.6	17.6	-1.04
Rod Strickland	71	70	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.42	3	-1	4	15.1	17.1	-1.93	17.1	17.8	-0.69
Jaren Jackson	23	23	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.06	13	-11	24	15.7	15.4	0.26	18.8	16.7	2.11
Harvey Grant	45	45	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.27	4	-2	6	15.7	15.3	0.34	17.3	17.2	0.08
Calbert Cheaney	70	69	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.43	-4	6	-10	15.2	16.8	-1.68	16.9	18.6	-1.72
Juwan Howard	79	80	0.23	0.27	-0.05	0.43	-7	9	-16	15.7	13.3	2.41	17.0	19.5	-2.50
Tracy Murray	47	47	0.13	0.37	-0.23	0.13	0	2	-2	15.3	15.7	-0.34	17.4	17.1	0.29
Chris Whitney	17	18	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	0.03	-1	3	-4	17.1	15.1	1.93	17.8	17.1	0.69
Gheorghe Muresan	55	53	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	-0.12	3	-1	4	16.1	14.4	1.72	17.6	16.6	1.04

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.5,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.67,0.75,0.69,0.72,0.67,0.73,0.73,0.71,0.62,0.69,0.69,0.63,0.56,0.62,0.82,0.88,0.89,0.85,0.79,0.76,0.73,0.69,0.64,0.67,0.42,1
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 107, PHI 108	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.48,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.37,0.37,0.4,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.56,0.51,0.59,0.69,0.81,0.75,0.78,0.76,0.72,0.72,0.76,0.76,0.74,0.8,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.72,0.74,0.84,0.88,0.89,0.93,0.78,0.76,0.66,0.68,0.72,0.67,0.58,1	91.6%
MIA 107, LAL 108	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.59,0.56,0.61,0.66,0.59,0.59,0.54,0.62,0.63,0.63,0.67,0.61,0.68,0.78,0.69,0.7,0.63,0.48,0.5,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.76,0.87,0.89,0.78,0.81,0.63,0.67,0.42,1	91.5%
LAC 80, DEN 82	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.44,0.4,0.43,0.43,0.5,0.47,0.42,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.54,0.56,0.61,0.56,0.63,0.63,0.69,0.78,0.76,0.64,0.68,0.65,0.69,0.69,0.71,0.75,0.66,0.78,0.71,0.67,0.63,0.74,0.81,0.83,0.69,0.64,0.69,0.58,1	91.5%