NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	111		Excitement	9.1 [110]		MVP	Anthony Morrow (GSW): +46.8%
Golden State Warriors	109		Comeback	13.8 [97]		LVP	Monta Ellis (GSW): -60.9%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Aaron Brooks	0.45	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.11,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.09,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.45	0.11	0.34	0.00	15	74%	0.59	4	-0.14	4	100%	0.08
Carl Landry	0.29	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.29,0.29,0.29	0.14	0.15	0.00	10	85%	0.38	3	-0.09	6	100%	0.06
Kyle Lowry	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.12,-0.18,-0.18,-0.05,0.11	-0.06	0.17	-0.00	7	50%	0.28	4	-0.17	8	87%	0.07
Luis Scola	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	9	67%	0.11	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Shane Battier	-0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.03	-0.01	0.03	6	56%	-0.00	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.02
Chase Budinger	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.03	-0.01	9	55%	0.04	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.02
David Andersen	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charles Hayes	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	4	22%	-0.03	2	-0.07	1	0%	-0.01
Trevor Ariza	-0.15	0,0,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.10	-0.05	0.01	19	45%	-0.03	5	-0.12	2	50%	-0.01

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anthony Morrow	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.22,0.25,0.23,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.29,0.47	0.47	0.17	0.30	-0.00	13	78%	0.47	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Vladimir Radmanovic	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.25,0.25,0.23,0.23,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.14	0.04	0.01	13	77%	0.20	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
CJ Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	-0.00	0.00	9	67%	0.08	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Mikki Moore	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	0.00	0.01	3	57%	0.01	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Stephen Curry	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.01	0.02	8	61%	0.07	4	-0.11	2	100%	0.01
Corey Maggette	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.12,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	12	47%	0.03	2	-0.07	6	100%	0.04
Chris Hunter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	0.00	6	21%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Monta Ellis	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.19,-0.22,-0.2,-0.2,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.18,-0.18,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.23,-0.36,-0.4,-0.61	-0.61	-0.26	-0.37	-0.01	27	39%	-0.23	9	-0.38	8	75%	0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.1	1.8	29.0	15.4	24.9	1.8	40.3	139.3
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +29.5%

HOU +42.1%

GSW -6.7%

GSW -12.1%

GSW -2.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	GSW	NBA	HOU	GSW	NBA
this game	13.7	13.6	15.3	103.7	104.8	106.0
season	15.0	13.4		106.0	106.5
opponent	14.8	15.1		110.0	106.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	13.8	13.9	14.1	12.9	13.7
GSW	14.4	13.3	13.0	13.8	13.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kyle Lowry	68	64	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.12	16	-14	30	13.2	14.5	-1.34	13.2	14.3	-1.12
Carl Landry	59	57	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.38	7	-5	12	13.6	13.7	-0.12	13.4	14.0	-0.59
Trevor Ariza	105	101	0.55	-0.05	0.61	0.41	5	-3	8	13.6	16.0	-2.38	13.6	14.7	-1.06
Shane Battier	82	78	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.56	-1	3	-4	13.4	14.4	-1.01	14.0	12.5	1.56
Aaron Brooks	79	76	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.55	-9	11	-20	13.4	14.3	-0.84	13.8	13.1	0.67
Chase Budinger	34	36	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.19	3	-1	4	14.2	13.4	0.79	13.2	13.9	-0.63
David Andersen	12	13	0.07	0.43	-0.35	0.02	2	0	2	16.3	13.3	3.01	12.8	13.7	-0.90
Charles Hayes	37	37	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	0.04	-8	10	-18	14.4	13.3	1.09	13.9	13.5	0.40
Luis Scola	59	58	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	-0.05	-5	7	-12	13.7	13.6	0.03	13.9	13.3	0.67

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Hunter	47	48	0.41	-0.91	1.32	0.06	12	-14	26	13.3	13.9	-0.61	13.9	13.5	0.38
Mikki Moore	22	22	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	0.03	-2	0	-2	14.2	13.5	0.75	15.3	13.2	2.08
Corey Maggette	49	51	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.04	-10	8	-18	13.6	13.7	-0.12	13.3	14.0	-0.78
Vladimir Radmanovic	77	77	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.41	1	-3	4	13.5	14.0	-0.44	14.0	12.7	1.29
Anthony Morrow	87	90	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.42	1	-3	4	14.0	12.0	1.95	13.5	14.3	-0.75
Monta Ellis	103	105	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.46	-2	0	-2	13.7	8.0	5.69	13.7	12.0	1.70
Stephen Curry	69	73	-0.55	0.05	-0.59	-0.46	-3	1	-4	13.8	13.4	0.35	13.3	14.5	-1.18
CJ Watson	66	69	-0.71	0.21	-0.91	-0.50	-7	5	-12	13.2	14.3	-1.11	13.4	14.2	-0.77

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.64,0.59,0.51,0.4,0.43,0.5,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.35,0.37,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.3,0.4,0.43,0.61,0.58,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.66,0.78,0.79,0.74,0.87,0.82,0.89,0.85,0.89,0.91,0.87,0.81,0.66,0.33,0.42,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHH 95, MIL 94	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.49,0.4,0.38,0.37,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.47,0.41,0.39,0.41,0.31,0.31,0.27,0.37,0.4,0.39,0.42,0.51,0.55,0.62,0.68,0.69,0.7,0.78,0.85,0.87,0.87,0.88,0.94,0.88,0.92,0.86,0.82,0.55,0.55,0.34,0.74,0	90.8%
LAL 104, GSW 102	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.5,0.51,0.47,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.4,0.4,0.39,0.34,0.38,0.33,0.37,0.36,0.39,0.44,0.41,0.39,0.49,0.57,0.46,0.45,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.59,0.52,0.72,0.63,0.6,0.66,0.7,0.85,0.83,0.85,0.79,0.71,0.67,0.61,0.63,0.23,0.58,0	90.4%
HOU 113, DAL 111	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.34,0.33,0.42,0.4,0.39,0.39,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.65,0.56,0.66,0.71,0.75,0.66,0.7,0.86,0.83,0.7,0.64,0.76,0.83,0.75,0.54,0.34,0.27,0	90.4%