NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	97		Excitement	8.7 [153]		MVP	Andrew Bogut (MIL): +13.1%
Milwaukee Bucks	99		Comeback	1.7 [646]		LVP	Brad Miller (CHI): -16.5%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
John Salmons	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0,0,0,0.12	0.10	0.04	0.01	15	61%	0.15	1	-0.02	8	75%	-0.00
Derrick Rose	0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.1,0.1,0.08	0.01	0.06	-0.01	17	51%	0.12	2	-0.04	3	100%	0.02
Taj Gibson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	6	50%	0.04	2	-0.04	4	50%	-0.01
Lindsey Hunter	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	0.00	9	28%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jannero Pargo	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Joakim Noah	-0.07	0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	0.00	-0.08	-0.01	10	53%	-0.01	2	-0.06	10	80%	-0.03
Luol Deng	-0.14	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.01,-0.1,-0.1,-0.17,-0.14	0.00	-0.15	-0.00	14	61%	0.07	5	-0.21	8	100%	0.05
Brad Miller	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.16	-0.04	-0.12	0.00	6	33%	-0.14	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andrew Bogut	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.06	0.03	-0.04	19	50%	0.13	0	0.00	6	33%	-0.10
Brandon Jennings	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09	0.09	-0.04	0.11	-0.02	15	47%	0.18	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.05
Kurt Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	3	67%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jodie Meeks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	5	60%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ersan Ilyasova	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.00	0.01	9	65%	0.06	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Luke Ridnour	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charlie Bell	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.01	-0.02	16	41%	0.01	2	-0.04	7	43%	-0.07
Carlos Delfino	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.09,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.03	-0.10	-0.01	12	54%	0.03	1	-0.10	4	50%	-0.02
Hakim Warrick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.04	0.00	9	33%	-0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	2.4	27.4	14.7	30.1	1.8	37.1	138.7
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +45.5%

CHI -17.8%

MIL +16.2%

MIL +3.7%

MIL +2.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	MIL	NBA	CHI	MIL	NBA
this game	14.6	16.9	15.3	105.4	108.8	106.0
season	14.7	15.5		101.9	103.3
opponent	15.5	15.7		101.8	103.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	16.0	15.4	11.9	15.5	14.6
MIL	17.6	16.6	16.9	16.5	16.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jannero Pargo	21	20	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	0.02	-4	2	-6	15.1	14.5	0.64	16.6	17.0	-0.31
Lindsey Hunter	42	41	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.35	6	-8	14	14.9	14.3	0.61	16.9	16.9	0.07
Brad Miller	41	41	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.21	1	-3	4	13.9	15.1	-1.21	16.6	17.1	-0.51
Taj Gibson	33	34	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.00	-7	5	-12	15.8	13.9	1.90	17.0	16.8	0.18
Joakim Noah	66	64	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.32	0	-2	2	14.8	14.0	0.78	16.8	17.1	-0.26
Derrick Rose	85	85	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.49	4	-6	10	14.2	19.4	-5.23	16.9	16.3	0.60
Luol Deng	89	88	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.44	-4	2	-6	14.4	21.3	-6.96	17.0	13.0	4.02
John Salmons	83	82	-0.61	0.11	-0.71	-0.43	-6	4	-10	14.6	14.3	0.29	16.9	16.8	0.12

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ersan Ilyasova	48	50	0.95	-0.46	1.41	0.34	21	-19	40	17.4	16.3	1.11	15.7	13.3	2.41
Andrew Bogut	65	66	0.87	-0.37	1.24	0.52	12	-10	22	16.1	18.9	-2.85	15.1	13.3	1.80
Charlie Bell	75	77	0.83	-0.33	1.17	0.51	11	-9	20	16.7	17.7	-1.04	14.8	13.5	1.35
Carlos Delfino	50	51	0.68	-0.18	0.87	0.36	11	-9	20	17.2	16.6	0.60	14.8	14.4	0.37
Brandon Jennings	82	83	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.47	-3	5	-8	16.9	16.7	0.25	14.4	16.8	-2.42
Luke Ridnour	38	36	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.04	-5	7	-12	16.3	17.3	-1.03	14.2	14.8	-0.62
Jodie Meeks	28	29	-0.30	0.80	-1.10	-0.07	-8	10	-18	17.6	16.6	1.09	14.9	14.5	0.39
Kurt Thomas	26	26	-0.37	0.87	-1.24	-0.08	-10	12	-22	18.9	16.1	2.85	13.3	15.1	-1.80
Hakim Warrick	43	42	-0.46	0.95	-1.41	0.10	-19	21	-40	16.3	17.4	-1.11	13.3	15.7	-2.41

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.61,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.61,0.67,0.64,0.66,0.63,0.56,0.58,0.6,0.65,0.69,0.76,0.73,0.69,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.68,0.74,0.78,0.78,0.81,0.82,0.78,0.86,0.89,0.81,0.68,0.7,0.66,0.53,0.53,0.37,0.47,0.6,0.54,0.45,0.63,0.85,0.95,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 91, SAC 97	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.62,0.66,0.63,0.64,0.62,0.65,0.69,0.72,0.7,0.73,0.69,0.61,0.61,0.59,0.7,0.66,0.68,0.78,0.76,0.76,0.84,0.88,0.86,0.92,0.89,0.82,0.7,0.74,0.66,0.71,0.68,0.59,0.65,0.47,0.38,0.54,0.85,0.95,1	91.6%
IND 100, PHI 109	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.63,0.7,0.71,0.67,0.68,0.66,0.63,0.64,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.63,0.7,0.7,0.74,0.69,0.7,0.65,0.58,0.65,0.74,0.67,0.7,0.77,0.79,0.8,0.72,0.63,0.67,0.72,0.66,0.48,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.51,0.59,0.61,0.38,0.63,0.57,0.98,1	91.4%
NOP 97, BOS 104	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.59,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.67,0.65,0.63,0.64,0.65,0.68,0.69,0.66,0.62,0.6,0.54,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.59,0.67,0.73,0.79,0.86,0.87,0.78,0.81,0.71,0.62,0.84,0.91,0.86,0.73,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.53,0.47,0.59,0.46,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.66,0.92,1	91.2%