NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Indiana Pacers	100		Excitement	7.7 [292]		MVP	Matt Harpring (PHI): +20.0%
Philadelphia 76ers	109		Comeback	2.3 [605]		LVP	Jonathan Bender (IND): -26.4%

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jermaine O'Neal	0.10	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.09,0.15,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.08	0.02	0.00	14	74%	0.18	3	-0.08	6	83%	0.01
Brad Miller	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	7	59%	0.05	1	-0.04	3	67%	-0.00
Austin Croshere	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.03	0.00	6	43%	0.04	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.03
Reggie Miller	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	11	54%	0.03	2	-0.04	6	67%	-0.02
Metta World Peace	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.07	-0.00	-0.03	7	41%	-0.00	2	-0.04	3	33%	-0.04
Jeff Foster	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	3	25%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kevin Ollie	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	0.01	5	53%	-0.01	2	-0.06	5	80%	0.01
Jamaal Tinsley	-0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.03,0.01,0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.1,-0.1	-0.04	-0.06	0.00	11	42%	-0.08	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Jonathan Bender	-0.26	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.21,-0.21,-0.26,-0.26	-0.07	-0.18	0.02	13	47%	-0.14	2	-0.12	10	90%	0.02

Philadelphia 76ers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Matt Harpring	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.03	0.17	0.00	11	58%	0.23	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Eric Snow	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.07	0.06	0.02	13	76%	0.21	4	-0.10	7	86%	0.04
Derrick McKey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.02	0.00	4	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dikembe Mutombo	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.03	-0.00	9	57%	0.05	1	-0.02	5	60%	-0.01
Corie Blount	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	7	56%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Speedy Claxton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	3	33%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Raja Bell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	1	25%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Alvin Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Allen Iverson	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.08,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.18,-0.24,-0.27,-0.22,-0.19,-0.19,-0.25,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.13	-0.01	0.01	36	47%	-0.02	4	-0.13	16	87%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	31.0	2.6	28.3	15.7	25.5	1.8	36.4	141.3
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

PHI +40.1%

IND -11.7%

PHI +11.5%

PHI +9.0%

PHI +1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	IND	PHI	NBA	IND	PHI	NBA
this game	14.3	15.1	15.6	103.1	110.1	102.3
season	15.3	15.9		101.6	99.3
opponent	15.6	15.4		98.2	100.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
IND	11.8	15.5	14.5	15.7	14.3
PHI	13.9	17.9	17.4	12.0	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jeff Foster	18	20	0.03	-0.53	0.57	-0.11	5	-14	19	15.2	14.1	1.17	14.1	15.4	-1.27
Kevin Ollie	50	49	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-10	11	14.5	14.0	0.56	13.4	16.7	-3.29
Austin Croshere	39	39	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	-0.08	1	-10	11	15.8	13.2	2.55	13.5	16.2	-2.68
Jonathan Bender	68	68	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.25	2	-11	13	15.0	12.4	2.60	13.9	17.7	-3.78
Jermaine O'Neal	76	76	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	0.03	-9	0	-9	14.1	14.7	-0.57	16.5	10.4	6.15
Metta World Peace	54	58	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.03	-9	0	-9	13.5	15.2	-1.65	15.5	14.6	0.94
Jamaal Tinsley	47	50	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.21	-10	1	-11	14.0	14.5	-0.56	16.7	13.4	3.29
Brad Miller	51	53	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.12	-14	5	-19	13.4	15.3	-1.93	16.2	13.9	2.28
Reggie Miller	82	82	-0.74	0.24	-0.98	-0.39	-12	3	-15	13.9	16.5	-2.68	14.8	16.5	-1.64

Philadelphia 76ers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Matt Harpring	57	55	0.96	-0.46	1.41	0.22	25	-16	41	15.2	15.0	0.28	14.2	14.3	-0.12
Eric Snow	75	72	0.86	-0.36	1.21	0.30	19	-10	29	14.4	17.3	-2.88	14.2	14.6	-0.45
Dikembe Mutombo	77	74	0.81	-0.31	1.13	0.29	18	-9	27	16.1	11.8	4.29	13.5	16.8	-3.35
Allen Iverson	93	92	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.27	6	3	3	14.8	19.2	-4.32	14.0	18.4	-4.36
Derrick McKey	56	55	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.32	-5	14	-19	13.8	16.8	-2.97	15.4	12.8	2.53
Raja Bell	13	13	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	-0.02	-1	10	-11	11.1	15.7	-4.64	13.5	14.4	-0.84
Alvin Jones	15	18	-0.13	0.63	-0.75	0.11	-8	17	-25	14.3	15.3	-1.00	16.3	13.8	2.47
Corie Blount	76	74	-0.24	0.74	-0.98	-0.18	-2	11	-13	16.3	11.2	5.13	14.0	15.2	-1.19
Speedy Claxton	33	32	-0.32	0.82	-1.14	-0.12	-7	16	-23	16.4	14.5	1.97	15.0	13.9	1.14

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.63,0.7,0.71,0.67,0.68,0.66,0.63,0.64,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.63,0.7,0.7,0.74,0.69,0.7,0.65,0.58,0.65,0.74,0.67,0.7,0.77,0.79,0.8,0.72,0.63,0.67,0.72,0.66,0.48,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.51,0.59,0.61,0.38,0.63,0.57,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 97, MIL 99	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.61,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.61,0.67,0.64,0.66,0.63,0.56,0.58,0.6,0.65,0.69,0.76,0.73,0.69,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.68,0.74,0.78,0.78,0.81,0.82,0.78,0.86,0.89,0.81,0.68,0.7,0.66,0.53,0.53,0.37,0.47,0.6,0.54,0.45,0.63,0.85,0.95,1	91.4%
NYK 81, CHI 87	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.64,0.63,0.62,0.69,0.68,0.68,0.68,0.66,0.67,0.73,0.69,0.72,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.78,0.84,0.82,0.83,0.78,0.81,0.84,0.83,0.69,0.73,0.67,0.68,0.62,0.7,0.57,0.42,0.35,0.41,0.47,0.73,0.68,0.64,0.55,0.9,1	91.1%
CHA 115, NOP 119	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.53,0.54,0.6,0.59,0.61,0.63,0.7,0.67,0.62,0.63,0.58,0.62,0.67,0.62,0.69,0.63,0.73,0.69,0.67,0.59,0.67,0.7,0.71,0.72,0.64,0.62,0.64,0.71,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.57,0.56,0.5,0.57,0.57,0.24,0.28,0.41,0.53,0.61,0.53,0.39,0.68,0.98,1	91.0%