NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	101		Excitement	7.4 [301]		MVP	Russell Westbrook (OKC): +17.3%
San Antonio Spurs	98		Comeback	3.5 [99]		LVP	Tony Parker (SAS): -26.1%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Russell Westbrook	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.08,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.17	0.11	0.09	0.02	13	59%	0.17	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.01
Nick Collison	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.04	0.05	0.00	3	100%	0.12	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
James Harden	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	-0.01	0.05	-0.02	6	53%	0.08	2	-0.03	3	67%	-0.00
Kevin Ollie	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	0	100%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jeff Green	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	-0.00	19	50%	0.06	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.04
Nenad Krstic	0.01	0,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.02	-0.01	11	46%	0.05	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.03
Etan Thomas	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Thabo Sefolosha	-0.05	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	6	50%	0.03	2	-0.08	2	50%	-0.00
Kevin Durant	-0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.13,-0.11	-0.03	-0.06	0.02	18	49%	0.00	4	-0.12	15	87%	0.04

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11	0.11	0.06	0.06	0.01	5	71%	0.11	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.04
George Hill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.16,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.09	0.09	0.10	-0.01	0.00	12	69%	0.13	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Michael Finley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.03	-0.01	6	50%	0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.14,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.10	-0.08	0.01	14	69%	0.12	2	-0.11	4	100%	0.02
Roger Mason Jr.	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keith Bogans	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0.01	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Bonner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	5	50%	0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
DeJuan Blair	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	5	64%	0.05	3	-0.09	1	100%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	0.00	-0.00	8	30%	-0.04	2	-0.04	7	100%	0.04
Richard Jefferson	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11	-0.11	-0.03	-0.08	-0.00	4	40%	-0.04	1	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Tony Parker	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.13,-0.08,-0.14,-0.2,-0.26	-0.26	-0.10	-0.16	0.01	18	41%	-0.17	4	-0.09	5	60%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.1	2.7	33.0	15.8	21.8	2.7	42.9	148.9
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +20.5%

OKC +13.2%

OKC +8.0%

OKC +4.8%

OKC +3.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	SAS	NBA	OKC	SAS	NBA
this game	15.1	15.1	15.3	106.3	102.1	106.0
season	15.0	15.9		106.2	108.2
opponent	15.1	15.5		103.4	103.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
OKC	14.5	15.7	14.7	15.2	15.1
SAS	13.2	15.6	17.2	14.8	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Durant	85	86	0.74	-0.24	0.99	0.30	15	-12	27	14.2	21.9	-7.65	14.9	17.1	-2.23
Nenad Krstic	60	61	0.63	-0.13	0.77	0.28	12	-9	21	15.0	15.2	-0.23	15.4	14.6	0.79
Thabo Sefolosha	80	80	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.44	2	1	1	15.6	12.2	3.39	15.3	13.9	1.40
Russell Westbrook	68	69	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.39	0	3	-3	15.6	13.7	1.83	15.2	14.7	0.51
Jeff Green	79	79	0.12	0.38	-0.27	0.38	-9	12	-21	15.1	15.0	0.06	14.5	17.8	-3.23
James Harden	37	39	0.11	0.39	-0.27	0.20	-3	6	-9	16.2	14.3	1.82	15.3	14.9	0.39
Kevin Ollie	27	27	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.02	3	0	3	13.7	15.6	-1.83	14.7	15.2	-0.51
Etan Thomas	15	16	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	2	-1	12.2	15.6	-3.39	13.9	15.3	-1.40
Nick Collison	24	23	-0.11	0.61	-0.71	0.07	-6	9	-15	16.4	14.6	1.77	16.8	14.6	2.21

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Matt Bonner	33	32	0.14	-0.64	0.78	-0.10	8	-11	19	14.8	15.2	-0.39	13.7	15.7	-2.01
Manu Ginobili	38	37	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.00	-3	0	-3	15.1	15.1	0.05	12.7	16.5	-3.80
Roger Mason Jr.	7	8	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.09	-2	-1	-1	15.1	15.1	0.04	16.0	15.0	1.03
Richard Jefferson	68	68	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.48	10	-13	23	15.1	15.2	-0.11	16.2	12.2	4.01
Tony Parker	62	63	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.30	3	-6	9	14.8	15.7	-0.89	15.1	14.9	0.17
Tim Duncan	72	72	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.33	3	-6	9	15.2	15.0	0.19	15.3	14.2	1.16
George Hill	63	62	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.35	3	-6	9	15.2	15.0	0.16	15.3	14.6	0.73
Michael Finley	37	34	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.21	-2	-1	-1	15.2	15.0	0.18	15.0	15.1	-0.04
DeJuan Blair	27	27	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	0.09	-13	10	-23	15.1	15.1	-0.04	16.2	14.6	1.58
Antonio McDyess	39	38	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.32	-1	-2	1	15.3	15.0	0.34	14.8	15.2	-0.44
Keith Bogans	34	34	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	0.04	-21	18	-39	15.4	14.9	0.48	14.6	15.3	-0.72

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.44,0.41,0.41,0.47,0.4,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.53,0.42,0.47,0.44,0.51,0.58,0.61,0.69,0.72,0.69,0.78,0.7,0.68,0.54,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.48,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.34,0.22,0.25,0.25,0.19,0.31,0.35,0.47,0.31,0.21,0.22,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 107, SAC 101	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.53,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.47,0.51,0.46,0.4,0.36,0.47,0.49,0.6,0.56,0.59,0.51,0.61,0.68,0.69,0.61,0.63,0.69,0.51,0.55,0.42,0.39,0.45,0.38,0.31,0.37,0.44,0.37,0.38,0.34,0.25,0.24,0.19,0.36,0.29,0.4,0.39,0.21,0.1,0.02,0	93.2%
OKC 97, NOH 92	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.53,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.41,0.38,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.65,0.56,0.59,0.67,0.56,0.64,0.7,0.68,0.69,0.72,0.61,0.48,0.45,0.41,0.48,0.56,0.48,0.44,0.38,0.3,0.38,0.2,0.27,0.36,0.34,0.4,0.31,0.15,0.15,0.09,0	92.6%
HOU 119, SEA 116	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.52,0.41,0.4,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.53,0.5,0.44,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.54,0.61,0.71,0.76,0.82,0.83,0.8,0.67,0.65,0.6,0.54,0.64,0.58,0.55,0.45,0.48,0.37,0.43,0.44,0.46,0.38,0.38,0.28,0.27,0.3,0.4,0.47,0.45,0.29,0.24,0.26,0	92.3%