NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	107		Excitement	7.1 [405]		MVP	Jermaine O'Neal (TOR): +36.4%
Sacramento Kings	101		Comeback	2.5 [568]		LVP	John Salmons (SAC): -18.6%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jermaine O'Neal	0.36	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.24,0.32,0.32,0.36,0.36	0.21	0.18	0.02	19	78%	0.47	4	-0.11	8	75%	-0.03
Andrea Bargnani	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.16,0.24,0.24,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.13	0.06	0.00	5	93%	0.22	1	-0.03	5	80%	0.01
Jose Calderon	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.07	0.04	0.01	9	67%	0.12	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.03
Jason Kapono	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.02	6	71%	0.05	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Joey Graham	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.05	0.04	-0.00	5	42%	0.04	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.02
Will Solomon	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kris Humphries	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	2	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.06
Anthony Parker	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.06	0.00	-0.02	7	31%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Jamario Moon	-0.05	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	4	40%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Chris Bosh	-0.06	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	10	48%	0.03	3	-0.09	7	71%	-0.01

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bobby Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.14	0.07	0.01	11	77%	0.20	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brad Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11	0.11	0.08	0.04	0.01	10	69%	0.17	2	-0.06	9	89%	0.02
Bobby Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.02	-0.00	5	50%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mikki Moore	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	2	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Beno Udrih	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	0.00	0.01	7	62%	0.04	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.03
Francisco Garcia	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.04	-0.02	6	64%	0.06	2	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Jason Thompson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.01	-0.00	7	50%	0.06	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.02
Spencer Hawes	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.08	0.01	-0.01	13	32%	-0.04	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.02
John Salmons	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.19	-0.19	-0.01	-0.12	0.06	19	44%	-0.15	1	-0.04	7	86%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.5	2.5	31.5	15.6	27.4	2.5	38.4	143.3
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +46.3%

TOR +1.5%

TOR +4.0%

TOR +1.8%

SAC -3.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	SAC	NBA	TOR	SAC	NBA
this game	15.9	16.7	15.5	120.2	114.8	106.4
season	15.1	15.0		105.0	104.0
opponent	15.1	15.6		112.7	108.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	14.0	16.9	17.2	15.8	15.9
SAC	14.8	15.9	17.0	19.4	16.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jose Calderon	73	71	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.19	12	-6	18	15.8	16.1	-0.21	16.4	17.6	-1.22
Jermaine O'Neal	70	72	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.13	8	-2	10	16.6	13.4	3.14	16.5	17.2	-0.65
Anthony Parker	53	52	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.37	-3	9	-12	15.6	16.3	-0.70	16.2	17.3	-1.14
Chris Bosh	50	51	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.10	6	0	6	15.8	15.9	-0.11	16.0	17.6	-1.66
Jason Kapono	51	49	0.28	0.22	0.06	-0.02	10	-4	14	15.6	16.3	-0.66	16.5	16.8	-0.34
Joey Graham	44	43	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.37	-3	9	-12	15.8	16.0	-0.14	16.4	16.9	-0.56
Andrea Bargnani	42	40	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.23	1	5	-4	16.0	15.8	0.26	16.4	16.9	-0.43
Jamario Moon	39	38	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.05	6	0	6	15.4	16.3	-0.85	16.7	16.7	-0.00
Kris Humphries	9	9	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.05	1	5	-4	13.4	16.2	-2.72	24.8	15.7	9.04
Will Solomon	15	17	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.10	-6	12	-18	16.8	15.7	1.10	17.6	16.4	1.22

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Thompson	33	33	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.05	-2	-4	2	16.1	17.0	-0.96	15.9	15.9	0.08
Bobby Brown	30	29	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.08	-2	-4	2	15.7	17.2	-1.46	16.0	15.8	0.17
Mikki Moore	35	35	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.14	-2	-4	2	16.7	16.6	0.14	15.7	16.0	-0.33
Brad Miller	62	62	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.27	1	-7	8	16.9	16.0	0.88	16.3	15.0	1.33
Francisco Garcia	58	61	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.03	-9	3	-12	15.6	18.8	-3.20	15.1	17.6	-2.46
Bobby Jackson	54	55	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.36	2	-8	10	16.9	16.3	0.55	16.3	15.1	1.20
Beno Udrih	58	60	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.24	-4	-2	-2	17.2	15.7	1.46	15.8	16.0	-0.17
John Salmons	65	64	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.26	-5	-1	-4	17.2	15.0	2.25	15.9	15.9	-0.04
Spencer Hawes	45	46	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.19	-9	3	-12	17.0	16.3	0.65	16.0	15.8	0.14

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.53,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.47,0.51,0.46,0.4,0.36,0.47,0.49,0.6,0.56,0.59,0.51,0.61,0.68,0.69,0.61,0.63,0.69,0.51,0.55,0.42,0.39,0.45,0.38,0.31,0.37,0.44,0.37,0.38,0.34,0.25,0.24,0.19,0.36,0.29,0.4,0.39,0.21,0.1,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
OKC 101, SAS 98	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.44,0.41,0.41,0.47,0.4,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.53,0.42,0.47,0.44,0.51,0.58,0.61,0.69,0.72,0.69,0.78,0.7,0.68,0.54,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.48,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.34,0.22,0.25,0.25,0.19,0.31,0.35,0.47,0.31,0.21,0.22,0.08,0	93.2%
MIN 103, MIL 92	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.55,0.47,0.54,0.46,0.44,0.38,0.42,0.49,0.47,0.56,0.61,0.66,0.64,0.66,0.61,0.54,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.42,0.39,0.38,0.35,0.29,0.27,0.33,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.29,0.42,0.32,0.31,0.24,0.47,0.31,0.16,0.04,0,0	92.8%
MIA 100, TOR 85	0.5,0.49,0.43,0.42,0.43,0.44,0.39,0.35,0.37,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.57,0.63,0.6,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.69,0.7,0.67,0.6,0.63,0.61,0.52,0.45,0.35,0.38,0.44,0.41,0.4,0.44,0.34,0.38,0.29,0.2,0.19,0.17,0.16,0.28,0.25,0.22,0,0,0	92.4%