NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	88		Excitement	3.3 [1122]		MVP	Mario Chalmers (MIA): +10.1%
Miami Heat	96		Comeback	1.2 [630]		LVP	Chauncey Billups (DEN): -16.0%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Andersen	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Nene	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	7	65%	0.08	3	-0.08	3	100%	0.01
Joey Graham	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.04	0.00	0.04	2	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Renaldo Balkman	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	3	75%	0.02	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.00
Ty Lawson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.04	0.00	0.04	10	55%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kenyon Martin	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Arron Afflalo	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.05	12	62%	0.01	3	-0.03	5	60%	-0.01
Carmelo Anthony	-0.04	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.00	-0.01	0.03	22	56%	0.06	5	-0.10	10	60%	-0.03
Malik Allen	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Carter	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.01	-0.01	5	0%	-0.07	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Chauncey Billups	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.12	-0.03	0.01	7	37%	-0.03	5	-0.13	2	100%	0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.11	0.00	0.01	9	89%	0.15	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	-0.02	0.03	-0.06	9	46%	0.08	1	-0.00	6	50%	-0.02
Jermaine O'Neal	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.05	-0.01	0.02	11	69%	0.10	3	-0.08	4	50%	-0.00
Joel Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	1	75%	0.02	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.00
Quentin Richardson	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	15	43%	-0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Dorell Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Arroyo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	3	67%	0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Michael Beasley	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	8	44%	-0.01	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	0.02	17	48%	0.00	3	-0.05	12	83%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	2.4	31.4	16.4	27.6	2.5	32.3	136.9
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +34.9%

DEN -2.1%

MIA +9.3%

MIA +6.7%

MIA +1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	MIA	NBA	DEN	MIA	NBA
this game	14.4	17.1	15.3	95.7	105.5	106.0
season	14.4	16.2		110.3	104.4
opponent	15.4	15.5		102.8	106.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.3	15.8	17.1	10.7	14.4
MIA	16.3	14.9	16.4	21.0	17.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Andersen	40	37	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.48	17	-25	42	13.4	15.1	-1.73	19.3	15.6	3.64
Joey Graham	26	25	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.53	18	-26	44	11.1	15.7	-4.55	20.2	16.0	4.21
Ty Lawson	45	44	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	-0.54	18	-26	44	12.6	16.0	-3.40	18.7	15.7	3.00
Arron Afflalo	56	54	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.47	12	-20	32	13.1	16.4	-3.30	18.0	15.8	2.19
Malik Allen	15	17	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.02	-4	-4	0	16.5	14.0	2.57	17.2	17.1	0.15
Renaldo Balkman	28	27	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.08	-3	-5	2	13.0	15.0	-1.93	20.1	15.8	4.27
Kenyon Martin	26	25	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	0.03	-7	-1	-6	14.6	14.3	0.27	13.5	18.5	-4.95
Anthony Carter	36	37	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	0.21	-20	12	-32	16.4	13.1	3.30	15.8	18.0	-2.19
Chauncey Billups	59	58	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	0.29	-26	18	-44	16.2	11.1	5.13	15.8	19.4	-3.54
Carmelo Anthony	71	72	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	0.04	-19	11	-30	15.2	11.5	3.76	16.0	21.3	-5.32
Nene	58	59	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	0.24	-26	18	-44	14.9	13.4	1.54	16.0	19.1	-3.06

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwyane Wade	77	77	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.17	12	-4	16	17.4	15.6	1.73	14.8	12.3	2.45
Mario Chalmers	61	63	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.05	15	-7	22	17.0	17.4	-0.43	15.3	12.4	2.82
Michael Beasley	64	62	0.48	0.02	0.46	-0.05	18	-10	28	15.1	21.9	-6.74	15.2	12.8	2.39
Quentin Richardson	69	70	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.12	10	-2	12	18.2	13.8	4.34	14.7	13.4	1.28
Jermaine O'Neal	63	64	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.06	9	-1	10	17.9	15.3	2.58	14.7	13.6	1.06
Udonis Haslem	55	57	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.44	-5	13	-18	18.0	15.7	2.34	13.9	15.2	-1.28
Carlos Arroyo	30	29	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.21	-7	15	-22	17.4	17.0	0.43	12.4	15.3	-2.82
Joel Anthony	22	23	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	0.23	-8	16	-24	15.0	17.8	-2.72	11.7	15.3	-3.64
Dorell Wright	14	15	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.10	-4	12	-16	15.6	17.4	-1.73	12.3	14.8	-2.45

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.55,0.55,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.69,0.61,0.64,0.73,0.82,0.86,0.93,0.94,0.91,0.93,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 85, SAS 109	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.55,0.5,0.48,0.47,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.48,0.47,0.51,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.51,0.56,0.59,0.64,0.69,0.73,0.82,0.88,0.91,0.92,0.94,0.9,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.8%
CHI 75, DET 108	0.5,0.51,0.57,0.58,0.54,0.5,0.56,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.6,0.62,0.52,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.53,0.48,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.64,0.67,0.7,0.8,0.84,0.9,0.9,0.9,0.93,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.4%
CHI 82, GSW 100	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.59,0.56,0.61,0.58,0.64,0.73,0.84,0.88,0.88,0.89,0.94,0.95,0.97,0.95,0.96,0.96,0.95,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.3%