NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	93		Excitement	8.5 [169]		MVP	Quentin Richardson (MIA): +17.4%
Washington Wizards	89		Comeback	2.4 [413]		LVP	Mario Chalmers (MIA): -18.1%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Quentin Richardson	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.13	0.07	0.03	10	95%	0.27	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0.17	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.08,0.12,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.19,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.16,0.12,0.17,0.24,0.24,0.18,0.18,0.17	0.11	0.04	-0.02	26	62%	0.43	4	-0.26	13	77%	0.01
Joel Anthony	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jermaine O'Neal	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,0,0	-0.08	0.06	-0.02	7	29%	0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.01,0.01,0	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	11	50%	0.03	2	-0.02	4	75%	0.02
Carlos Arroyo	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Beasley	-0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	10	50%	0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Dorell Wright	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	-0.18	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.18,-0.18	-0.10	-0.08	-0.00	6	36%	0.05	4	-0.23	2	100%	0.01

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brendan Haywood	0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.04	0.04	-0.02	12	57%	0.12	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.05
Mike Miller	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.05	0.05	-0.00	5	73%	0.12	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Fabricio Oberto	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.03	-0.01	3	33%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
JaVale McGee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andray Blatche	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	12	38%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Gilbert Arenas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.03,-0.01,0,-0.03,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.12,0.12,0.13,0,0.13,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	27	46%	0.14	3	-0.18	15	80%	0.04
Randy Foye	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.06	0.00	6	50%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Caron Butler	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.17	-0.17	-0.10	-0.09	-0.01	13	46%	-0.04	5	-0.13	2	50%	-0.05
DeShawn Stevenson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.18	-0.18	-0.05	-0.13	-0.00	3	20%	-0.18	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.23

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.0	3.7	28.4	18.5	28.4	3.7	42.2	154.0
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +76.4%

WAS -2.7%

WAS -2.8%

WAS -22.8%

MIA +1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	WAS	NBA	MIA	WAS	NBA
this game	15.6	15.7	15.3	101.1	96.7	106.0
season	16.2	15.7		104.4	102.6
opponent	15.3	15.4		107.9	102.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	13.0	18.0	15.2	16.5	15.6
WAS	15.8	16.3	16.1	14.8	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jermaine O'Neal	66	65	0.74	-0.24	0.97	0.24	17	-13	30	14.7	17.7	-2.97	15.4	16.5	-1.05
Dwyane Wade	81	82	0.62	-0.12	0.73	0.26	12	-8	20	15.1	19.1	-4.00	16.1	12.6	3.52
Quentin Richardson	81	82	0.62	-0.12	0.73	0.26	12	-8	20	15.1	19.1	-4.00	16.1	12.6	3.52
Udonis Haslem	60	59	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.58	-5	9	-14	16.2	14.4	1.83	15.6	15.9	-0.27
Mario Chalmers	70	69	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.26	6	-2	8	15.8	14.9	0.86	15.6	16.0	-0.41
Carlos Arroyo	19	20	0.03	0.47	-0.43	0.09	-2	6	-8	14.5	15.8	-1.31	16.0	15.7	0.40
Dorell Wright	14	13	-0.09	0.59	-0.67	0.15	-8	12	-20	18.7	15.0	3.71	13.4	16.1	-2.74
Joel Anthony	23	23	-0.12	0.62	-0.73	0.21	-11	15	-26	17.0	15.1	1.91	16.0	15.7	0.29
Michael Beasley	46	47	-0.17	0.67	-0.84	-0.14	-1	5	-6	16.1	15.1	1.00	15.5	16.0	-0.47

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
JaVale McGee	15	17	0.14	-0.64	0.77	-0.19	11	-15	26	13.7	16.1	-2.48	17.0	15.2	1.76
Mike Miller	36	35	0.06	-0.56	0.63	-0.08	5	-9	14	17.7	14.5	3.21	16.4	15.1	1.35
Fabricio Oberto	41	40	0.01	-0.51	0.53	0.16	-5	1	-6	16.1	15.5	0.60	15.6	15.5	0.06
DeShawn Stevenson	43	43	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.34	5	-9	14	14.8	16.5	-1.69	16.8	14.5	2.30
Randy Foye	35	36	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.02	-6	2	-8	16.2	15.4	0.79	14.9	16.0	-1.02
Andray Blatche	57	58	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.50	4	-8	12	15.8	15.7	0.04	15.9	14.9	1.04
Caron Butler	87	87	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.35	-2	-2	0	15.6	17.6	-1.97	15.5	16.4	-0.88
Brendan Haywood	71	69	-0.76	0.26	-1.03	-0.24	-18	14	-32	16.0	15.0	1.02	14.9	17.7	-2.78
Gilbert Arenas	75	75	-0.77	0.27	-1.03	-0.36	-14	10	-24	15.2	18.1	-2.85	14.8	18.8	-4.00

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.37,0.32,0.29,0.21,0.2,0.21,0.19,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.21,0.25,0.31,0.35,0.44,0.39,0.34,0.28,0.31,0.25,0.32,0.34,0.39,0.39,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.56,0.37,0.4,0.48,0.5,0.43,0.29,0.38,0.47,0.59,0.54,0.6,0.32,0.36,0.43,0.58,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 124, MIL 117	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.4,0.45,0.39,0.32,0.29,0.29,0.28,0.29,0.27,0.25,0.26,0.26,0.23,0.23,0.24,0.24,0.25,0.22,0.28,0.33,0.41,0.46,0.4,0.37,0.45,0.46,0.42,0.45,0.55,0.52,0.63,0.53,0.48,0.38,0.48,0.38,0.33,0.37,0.53,0.59,0.54,0.25,0.28,0.67,0.58,0	90.9%
IND 97, MIA 93	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.5,0.45,0.43,0.36,0.29,0.31,0.31,0.32,0.35,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.35,0.37,0.47,0.44,0.41,0.28,0.2,0.16,0.33,0.35,0.34,0.28,0.42,0.48,0.35,0.38,0.45,0.48,0.44,0.36,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.38,0.42,0.59,0.71,0.53,0.38,0.55,0.43,0.41,0	90.5%
POR 108, OKC 105	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.33,0.29,0.31,0.24,0.25,0.24,0.26,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.18,0.2,0.19,0.2,0.3,0.41,0.46,0.49,0.42,0.33,0.37,0.34,0.37,0.36,0.42,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.41,0.47,0.52,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.34,0.48,0.53,0.59,0.45,0.61,0.68,0.72,0.45,0.58,0	90.1%