NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	124		Excitement	8.4 [165]		MVP	Mike Bibby (SAC): +33.3%
Milwaukee Bucks	117		Comeback	4.1 [186]		LVP	Brad Miller (SAC): -12.1%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Bibby	0.33	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.33,0.33	0.10	0.25	0.02	17	67%	0.39	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Vlade Divac	0.26	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.26	0.08	0.17	-0.00	6	87%	0.27	1	-0.01	4	100%	0.04
Peja Stojakovic	0.18	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.17,0.17,0.07,0.18	0.10	0.09	0.00	18	65%	0.20	1	-0.02	12	92%	0.13
Anthony Peeler	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.2,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.07	0.06	-0.02	7	71%	0.16	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Massenburg	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	-0.02	-0.00	6	67%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Wallace	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	1	75%	0.03	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
Doug Christie	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.03	-0.01	12	50%	0.01	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
Darius Songaila	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Brad Miller	-0.12	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12	0.03	-0.12	0.03	11	70%	0.11	3	-0.23	8	87%	0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dan Gadzuric	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.06	0.06	0.00	3	100%	0.13	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Desmond Mason	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.08	0.08	0.10	0.00	0.01	13	70%	0.12	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.03
Brian Skinner	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.02	-0.00	14	59%	0.09	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Toni Kukoc	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.22,0.18,0.16,0.12,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.09	-0.02	0.01	12	75%	0.11	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.04
T.J. Ford	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.01	0.01	3	90%	0.05	1	-0.01	4	75%	0.01
Damon Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.03	0.00	9	44%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joe Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.03	0.05	0.00	10	45%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.05
Michael Redd	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,0.06,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	-0.01	16	53%	0.06	1	-0.07	6	83%	0.01
Tim Thomas	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.10	-0.03	-0.02	8	25%	-0.07	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.2	1.8	27.0	14.8	25.2	2.4	36.5	129.0
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +57.9%

SAC +5.1%

SAC +4.3%

MIL -18.3%

SAC +0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	MIL	NBA	SAC	MIL	NBA
this game	15.4	14.8	15.7	130.5	121.9	100.5
season	14.7	15.3		106.9	103.6
opponent	15.5	15.6		103.3	102.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	12.6	18.5	15.6	15.5	15.4
MIL	15.7	15.0	15.1	13.3	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brad Miller	77	78	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.30	13	-6	19	14.5	19.2	-4.74	14.9	14.1	0.89
Peja Stojakovic	78	80	0.60	-0.10	0.71	0.34	9	-2	11	14.9	17.4	-2.40	14.4	16.6	-2.21
Mike Bibby	84	85	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.31	8	-1	9	15.0	18.0	-2.96	14.6	16.2	-1.58
Doug Christie	81	82	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.21	11	-4	15	15.1	17.1	-2.07	15.2	12.1	3.09
Anthony Peeler	42	42	0.14	0.35	-0.21	0.09	2	5	-3	15.5	15.3	0.17	13.9	15.4	-1.52
Vlade Divac	63	63	0.09	0.41	-0.33	0.23	-5	12	-17	16.1	14.0	2.08	14.8	14.7	0.08
Tony Massenburg	24	24	0.04	0.46	-0.41	0.01	1	6	-5	16.3	15.1	1.28	14.8	14.8	0.01
Gerald Wallace	18	17	-0.06	0.56	-0.63	-0.06	0	7	-7	18.1	14.8	3.30	16.6	14.4	2.27
Darius Songaila	8	9	-0.08	0.58	-0.65	0.04	-4	11	-15	20.0	15.0	5.05	14.4	14.8	-0.37

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dan Gadzuric	28	28	0.33	-0.83	1.15	-0.03	12	-19	31	13.7	15.2	-1.46	18.9	13.9	4.93
Damon Jones	51	49	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.06	-2	-5	3	14.3	15.3	-1.04	15.7	15.0	0.73
Joe Smith	49	49	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	0.20	-7	0	-7	15.8	13.7	2.11	14.6	16.2	-1.54
Tim Thomas	43	43	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	0.07	-3	-4	1	15.4	14.2	1.20	15.8	15.1	0.71
Desmond Mason	72	71	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.39	3	-10	13	14.3	16.1	-1.74	16.0	13.6	2.40
Toni Kukoc	47	46	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.49	0	-7	7	13.7	15.8	-2.11	16.2	14.6	1.54
T.J. Ford	45	46	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.35	-5	-2	-3	15.3	14.3	1.04	15.0	15.7	-0.73
Michael Redd	77	76	-0.70	0.20	-0.89	-0.29	-14	7	-21	14.8	14.6	0.19	14.6	18.5	-3.93
Brian Skinner	68	67	-0.82	0.32	-1.13	-0.26	-19	12	-31	15.2	13.7	1.46	13.9	18.9	-4.93

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.4,0.45,0.39,0.32,0.29,0.29,0.28,0.29,0.27,0.25,0.26,0.26,0.23,0.23,0.24,0.24,0.25,0.22,0.28,0.33,0.41,0.46,0.4,0.37,0.45,0.46,0.42,0.45,0.55,0.52,0.63,0.53,0.48,0.38,0.48,0.38,0.33,0.37,0.53,0.59,0.54,0.25,0.28,0.67,0.58,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 93, WAS 89	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.37,0.32,0.29,0.21,0.2,0.21,0.19,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.21,0.25,0.31,0.35,0.44,0.39,0.34,0.28,0.31,0.25,0.32,0.34,0.39,0.39,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.56,0.37,0.4,0.48,0.5,0.43,0.29,0.38,0.47,0.59,0.54,0.6,0.32,0.36,0.43,0.58,0	90.9%
CHA 101, DEN 98	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.33,0.34,0.29,0.3,0.32,0.3,0.26,0.27,0.28,0.26,0.31,0.36,0.33,0.28,0.28,0.31,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.41,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.52,0.59,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.5,0.48,0.52,0.62,0.53,0.59,0.81,0.66,0.33,0.55,0.57,0.42,0	90.4%
NJN 95, CHA 94	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.41,0.36,0.3,0.33,0.28,0.21,0.22,0.22,0.27,0.3,0.31,0.28,0.24,0.32,0.41,0.49,0.49,0.58,0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.45,0.36,0.42,0.41,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.38,0.34,0.43,0.52,0.63,0.59,0.55,0.34,0.31,0.45,0.55,0.58,0	90.0%