NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	111		Excitement	3.8 [1033]		MVP	Chauncey Billups (DEN): +12.9%
Indiana Pacers	93		Comeback	1.1 [1047]		LVP	Kenyon Martin (DEN): -9.9%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chauncey Billups	0.13	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.12	0.01	-0.00	15	67%	0.15	2	-0.02	6	83%	0.00
Arron Afflalo	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.00	0.00	10	68%	0.09	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Carmelo Anthony	0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.03	0.02	-0.03	17	52%	0.10	2	-0.03	14	79%	0.01
Chris Andersen	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.00	-0.02	6	50%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Renaldo Balkman	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Allen	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.00	0.01	4	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joey Graham	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.00	0.01	4	64%	0.03	2	-0.03	6	83%	-0.00
Nene	-0.03	0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.01	0.00	10	52%	0.05	4	-0.07	11	73%	-0.01
Ty Lawson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	0.00	0.00	3	50%	-0.02	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Anthony Carter	-0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	6	33%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kenyon Martin	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.12	-0.00	-0.03	7	29%	-0.03	4	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dahntay Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.07	0.00	0.02	15	56%	0.05	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.00
T.J. Ford	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	7	65%	0.06	3	-0.05	6	83%	0.01
A.J. Price	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	2	75%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Roy Hibbert	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.04	0.00	0.04	11	58%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Earl Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luther Head	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	0.01	8	44%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Josh McRoberts	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	-0.02	4	25%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Troy Murphy	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	4	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Solomon Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	-0.02	8	28%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Brandon Rush	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.09	-0.00	-0.01	12	33%	-0.06	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Danny Granger	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	0.00	16	47%	0.01	5	-0.11	6	67%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.4	1.7	29.1	15.8	32.2	2.5	27.5	135.2
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +30.0%

DEN +10.8%

DEN +10.0%

IND -1.5%

DEN +0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	IND	NBA	DEN	IND	NBA
this game	13.7	13.1	15.3	102.8	86.9	106.0
season	14.4	14.2		110.3	102.2
opponent	15.1	15.5		105.3	106.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	11.6	13.6	13.9	16.0	13.7
IND	13.2	13.5	11.4	14.7	13.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chauncey Billups	71	70	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.05	12	6	6	13.3	14.5	-1.18	12.6	14.0	-1.41
Nene	81	80	0.39	0.11	0.28	-0.22	21	-3	24	13.9	12.9	1.01	13.3	12.5	0.78
Kenyon Martin	68	68	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.06	9	9	0	12.9	15.1	-2.25	12.6	13.9	-1.25
Carmelo Anthony	68	68	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.06	9	9	0	12.9	15.1	-2.25	12.6	13.9	-1.25
Arron Afflalo	49	49	0.30	0.20	0.11	-0.17	16	2	14	14.5	13.0	1.44	13.9	12.4	1.43
Chris Andersen	41	41	0.28	0.22	0.06	-0.10	13	5	8	13.7	13.7	0.07	13.1	13.1	0.07
Anthony Carter	70	69	0.23	0.27	-0.05	-0.01	8	10	-2	13.6	13.9	-0.32	13.0	13.3	-0.37
Joey Graham	37	36	0.16	0.34	-0.17	-0.07	8	10	-2	15.0	13.0	2.00	13.3	13.0	0.31
Ty Lawson	29	29	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.05	1	17	-16	13.9	13.6	0.29	14.1	12.7	1.37
Malik Allen	17	17	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.00	0	18	-18	15.1	13.4	1.63	14.5	12.8	1.70
Renaldo Balkman	9	8	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.21	-7	25	-32	14.9	13.6	1.31	11.7	13.2	-1.46

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
A.J. Price	12	12	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.09	3	-21	24	14.5	12.9	1.57	15.1	13.5	1.57
Josh McRoberts	26	25	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.12	4	-22	26	13.8	12.9	0.88	13.8	13.7	0.10
T.J. Ford	49	51	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	0.02	-8	-10	2	12.6	13.5	-0.94	13.3	14.0	-0.67
Roy Hibbert	75	76	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.03	-7	-11	4	13.2	13.0	0.19	13.5	14.0	-0.49
Luther Head	40	40	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.14	-3	-15	12	13.5	12.9	0.67	13.3	13.9	-0.57
Troy Murphy	40	37	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	0.09	-12	-6	-6	12.5	13.4	-0.92	13.0	14.1	-1.08
Solomon Jones	32	32	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	0.06	-11	-7	-4	13.0	13.2	-0.19	14.0	13.5	0.49
Dahntay Jones	62	65	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	0.11	-13	-5	-8	13.3	12.8	0.56	14.3	12.7	1.60
Earl Watson	46	45	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	0.10	-13	-5	-8	13.3	13.0	0.32	13.7	13.7	0.04
Brandon Rush	71	72	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	0.03	-12	-6	-6	12.8	13.6	-0.77	13.7	13.7	-0.01
Danny Granger	82	85	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	0.12	-18	0	-18	13.0	13.4	-0.39	13.7	13.8	-0.12

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.39,0.36,0.35,0.31,0.29,0.22,0.19,0.16,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.13,0.11,0.09,0.13,0.08,0.12,0.13,0.1,0.16,0.12,0.15,0.22,0.16,0.11,0.1,0.06,0.13,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 108, MIN 88	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.44,0.4,0.41,0.43,0.39,0.37,0.31,0.21,0.22,0.19,0.15,0.18,0.14,0.12,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.08,0.11,0.14,0.12,0.14,0.13,0.17,0.16,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.5%
MEM 97, MIA 82	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.38,0.37,0.34,0.29,0.28,0.26,0.3,0.25,0.24,0.2,0.2,0.16,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.16,0.15,0.16,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.13,0.19,0.14,0.15,0.17,0.16,0.07,0.11,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.0%
NJN 120, IND 96	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.47,0.44,0.43,0.39,0.36,0.35,0.38,0.3,0.25,0.19,0.2,0.23,0.22,0.24,0.16,0.14,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.12,0.16,0.14,0.15,0.17,0.12,0.11,0.1,0.12,0.23,0.14,0.12,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.9%