NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Memphis Grizzlies	123		Excitement	6.3 [525]		MVP	O.J. Mayo (MEM): +29.7%
Denver Nuggets	133		Comeback	2.3 [1027]		LVP	Mike Conley (MEM): -11.6%

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
O.J. Mayo	0.30	0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.25,0.25,0.23,0.25,0.31,0.3,0.3,0.32,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.3,0.3,0.3	0.34	0.04	0.09	25	77%	0.30	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Sam Young	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.00	0.00	4	70%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Rudy Gay	0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.01	13	55%	0.07	2	-0.03	7	57%	-0.02
Marc Gasol	0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.07	-0.03	0.01	9	77%	0.12	3	-0.09	8	75%	-0.01
Marcus Williams	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	0.00	5	50%	0.00	0	0.00	4	0%	-0.08
Hasheem Thabeet	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Hamed Haddadi	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Steven Hunter	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	0.01	1	100%	0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
DeMarre Carroll	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.10	-0.01	-0.04	5	29%	-0.02	3	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
Zach Randolph	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	11	55%	0.02	4	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Mike Conley	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.04	-0.04	0.03	9	55%	-0.01	4	-0.10	2	50%	-0.01

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.2,0.21,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.29,0.26,0.3,0.29,0.29,0.29	0.29	0.24	0.11	0.06	26	66%	0.30	1	-0.01	12	92%	0.03
Nene	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.14	0.03	0.01	6	86%	0.17	1	-0.02	9	67%	-0.02
Kenyon Martin	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.02	0.05	-0.04	13	57%	0.15	2	-0.04	2	0%	-0.02
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.02	0.01	5	71%	0.11	2	-0.04	7	86%	0.01
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.00	0.01	2	150%	0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.09	0.01	0.05	14	63%	0.10	2	-0.05	7	100%	0.02
Ty Lawson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	-0.00	8	50%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Malik Allen	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Arron Afflalo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.04	-0.04	0.02	-0.02	0.04	7	50%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joey Graham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	-0.02	4	25%	-0.00	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.2	2.6	36.1	16.5	25.2	2.5	36.5	146.7
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +21.5%

DEN +14.8%

MEM -5.8%

DEN +22.6%

MEM -3.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MEM	DEN	NBA	MEM	DEN	NBA
this game	13.9	13.8	15.3	118.3	127.9	106.0
season	15.4	14.4		106.8	110.3
opponent	15.5	15.0		106.4	108.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MEM	13.0	15.6	14.2	13.0	13.9
DEN	13.2	12.7	15.1	14.2	13.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Steven Hunter	20	21	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	0.04	-2	-8	6	12.1	14.3	-2.23	13.8	13.8	0.03
Hamed Haddadi	6	6	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	0.06	-3	-7	4	9.7	14.2	-4.50	11.7	13.9	-2.25
Hasheem Thabeet	24	24	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.07	-1	-9	8	14.7	13.7	0.99	15.4	13.3	2.06
Mike Conley	62	62	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.20	2	-12	14	14.3	13.3	1.08	14.0	13.4	0.64
DeMarre Carroll	52	50	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.07	-4	-6	2	13.2	14.6	-1.42	13.3	14.3	-1.02
Sam Young	22	23	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.12	-4	-6	2	14.4	13.8	0.64	13.0	14.0	-0.96
O.J. Mayo	83	82	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.12	-4	-6	2	13.7	14.8	-1.13	13.8	13.6	0.19
Zach Randolph	68	69	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.19	-5	-5	0	14.2	13.3	0.87	14.2	13.0	1.23
Marc Gasol	75	74	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.19	-5	-5	0	14.3	12.9	1.44	13.5	14.6	-1.09
Marcus Williams	42	42	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.01	-12	2	-14	13.3	14.3	-1.08	13.4	14.0	-0.64
Rudy Gay	66	67	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.17	-12	2	-14	14.5	12.9	1.55	13.9	13.5	0.38

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nene	71	71	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.09	15	-5	20	14.2	12.9	1.24	14.2	13.3	0.84
Arron Afflalo	42	42	0.37	0.13	0.24	-0.01	13	-3	16	13.2	14.2	-1.04	14.3	13.6	0.68
Kenyon Martin	83	83	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.16	6	4	2	13.8	13.9	-0.09	13.3	16.3	-3.04
Chauncey Billups	80	80	0.29	0.20	0.09	0.18	4	6	-2	13.8	13.9	-0.11	13.2	16.1	-2.89
Carmelo Anthony	78	76	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.16	4	6	-2	13.7	14.0	-0.28	14.2	13.2	0.94
Ty Lawson	43	44	0.23	0.27	-0.05	0.02	7	3	4	13.6	13.9	-0.35	15.3	12.8	2.49
Joey Graham	27	29	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.08	4	6	-2	13.5	13.9	-0.41	13.0	14.3	-1.30
Chris Andersen	53	53	0.16	0.34	-0.19	0.13	1	9	-8	13.5	14.0	-0.49	14.7	13.1	1.54
Anthony Carter	42	41	0.13	0.37	-0.23	0.19	-2	12	-14	15.0	13.0	2.03	13.4	14.2	-0.77
Malik Allen	1	1	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	0.03	-2	12	-14	0.0	13.9	-13.92	6.0	14.0	-7.98

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.47,0.41,0.36,0.35,0.38,0.32,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.37,0.44,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.56,0.59,0.69,0.58,0.56,0.53,0.5,0.57,0.63,0.58,0.67,0.73,0.77,0.78,0.84,0.88,0.8,0.78,0.85,0.84,0.79,0.86,0.93,0.86,0.88,0.93,0.86,0.97,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 87, LAL 95	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.5,0.44,0.45,0.39,0.35,0.35,0.47,0.42,0.4,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.56,0.53,0.56,0.64,0.59,0.59,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.57,0.64,0.78,0.79,0.75,0.84,0.83,0.74,0.82,0.74,0.66,0.75,0.83,0.95,0.86,0.91,0.93,0.94,0.96,0.98,1,1	94.3%
CLE 84, ATL 98	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.5,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.43,0.39,0.42,0.37,0.44,0.49,0.56,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.61,0.54,0.62,0.63,0.67,0.73,0.76,0.87,0.8,0.84,0.76,0.77,0.78,0.81,0.84,0.79,0.89,0.85,0.86,0.93,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1	94.1%
WAS 99, CLE 114	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.4,0.45,0.38,0.4,0.36,0.39,0.49,0.56,0.61,0.66,0.69,0.69,0.66,0.59,0.56,0.54,0.62,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.73,0.71,0.78,0.78,0.83,0.78,0.79,0.92,0.93,0.92,0.89,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.1%