NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	97		Excitement	9.1 [103]		MVP	Carmelo Anthony (DEN): +46.8%
Portland Trail Blazers	94		Comeback	4.7 [109]		LVP	Greg Oden (POR): -22.6%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carmelo Anthony	0.47	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.12,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.07,0.12,0.27,0.47,0.47,0.47	0.18	0.30	0.01	21	67%	0.55	3	-0.08	19	95%	0.18
Ty Lawson	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.03	0.06	-0.00	5	58%	0.09	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Kenyon Martin	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.03	-0.00	5	50%	0.04	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Chris Andersen	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.02	-0.02	3	50%	0.03	1	-0.00	4	75%	0.01
Joey Graham	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Carter	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.02	0.00	4	70%	0.02	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Malik Allen	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Arron Afflalo	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nene	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05	-0.08	0.01	-0.02	7	32%	-0.04	1	-0.02	8	37%	-0.07
Chauncey Billups	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.08,0.08,0.01,-0.07	0.03	-0.10	-0.01	14	55%	0.01	2	-0.08	12	92%	0.06

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rudy Fernandez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.13,0.19,0.28,0.29,0.35,0.35,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41	0.41	0.15	0.26	0.00	9	85%	0.48	2	-0.06	8	100%	0.10
Brandon Roy	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.16,0.1,0.26,0.26,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.22,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.32	0.32	0.11	0.17	-0.03	16	60%	0.35	1	-0.03	18	89%	0.06
Juwan Howard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Joel Przybilla	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	3	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Martell Webster	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0.00	9	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Travis Outlaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.10	0.01	-0.00	8	22%	-0.06	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.03
Andre Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.05	-0.07	-0.01	11	32%	-0.11	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.05
Steve Blake	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.07	-0.06	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	1	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.09	-0.05	-0.01	15	28%	-0.14	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.10
Greg Oden	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.23	-0.23	-0.03	-0.20	-0.00	5	43%	-0.20	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.45

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.2	3.6	37.1	19.7	29.8	2.8	48.1	169.4
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +13.1%

DEN +29.5%

DEN +3.3%

DEN +4.0%

DEN +0.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	POR	NBA	DEN	POR	NBA
this game	14.8	18.2	15.3	112.8	106.8	106.0
season	14.4	16.7		110.3	108.8
opponent	15.6	15.5		106.3	106.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	13.3	13.0	15.0	18.1	14.8
POR	20.0	18.9	17.8	16.1	18.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kenyon Martin	67	68	0.60	-0.10	0.71	0.31	10	-7	17	15.4	12.9	2.48	18.3	18.0	0.31
Anthony Carter	40	42	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.55	0	3	-3	16.8	13.1	3.69	17.1	19.2	-2.10
Carmelo Anthony	75	76	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.40	4	-1	5	15.0	13.5	1.47	17.4	23.4	-6.00
Chauncey Billups	78	80	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.46	2	1	1	15.1	12.1	2.98	18.2	19.0	-0.84
Nene	64	67	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.36	-1	4	-5	14.9	14.5	0.44	18.0	19.0	-1.06
Arron Afflalo	24	25	0.17	0.33	-0.16	-0.06	8	-5	13	12.2	15.8	-3.63	21.3	17.0	4.30
Malik Allen	1	1	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.07	2	1	1	2.0	15.0	-12.98	1.0	18.4	-17.44
Joey Graham	12	12	0.11	0.39	-0.29	-0.01	4	-1	5	10.7	15.5	-4.83	15.3	18.7	-3.36
Chris Andersen	40	40	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	0.08	-5	8	-13	14.0	15.5	-1.45	19.0	17.6	1.35
Ty Lawson	29	29	-0.36	0.86	-1.23	-0.10	-9	12	-21	14.8	14.9	-0.10	20.7	17.0	3.71

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Martell Webster	54	52	0.19	-0.69	0.89	-0.10	10	-13	23	19.0	17.0	2.07	15.2	14.3	0.83
Travis Outlaw	33	31	0.15	-0.65	0.80	0.03	4	-7	11	17.6	18.6	-0.96	12.6	16.1	-3.46
Juwan Howard	28	29	0.11	-0.61	0.72	0.14	-1	-2	1	18.4	18.2	0.23	13.7	15.4	-1.66
Andre Miller	47	48	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.00	-2	-1	-1	19.1	17.3	1.77	15.5	14.0	1.48
Greg Oden	37	36	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.41	7	-10	17	19.0	17.7	1.36	16.6	13.5	3.07
Steve Blake	40	37	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.23	-4	1	-5	17.7	18.7	-0.94	13.8	15.6	-1.78
Joel Przybilla	24	23	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.15	-7	4	-11	18.2	18.3	-0.10	14.1	15.1	-1.01
Brandon Roy	59	58	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.52	1	-4	5	18.0	18.7	-0.62	15.7	13.0	2.65
LaMarcus Aldridge	75	75	-0.69	0.19	-0.88	-0.31	-13	10	-23	17.6	22.0	-4.41	14.9	14.5	0.32
Rudy Fernandez	43	41	-0.81	0.31	-1.11	-0.51	-10	7	-17	18.0	18.5	-0.56	14.6	15.1	-0.51

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.61,0.6,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.47,0.42,0.35,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.59,0.67,0.61,0.54,0.5,0.57,0.58,0.66,0.61,0.52,0.55,0.62,0.59,0.59,0.71,0.52,0.7,0.66,0.62,0.67,0.63,0.82,0.71,0.73,0.45,0.52,0.22,0.09,0
Game		Similarity Score
IND 103, NYK 100	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.5,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.36,0.4,0.43,0.42,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.61,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.55,0.68,0.65,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.44,0.58,0.62,0.71,0.71,0.81,0.74,0.8,0.73,0.54,0.37,0.23,0.05,0	93.0%
POR 103, MIN 96	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.64,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.59,0.58,0.63,0.6,0.66,0.7,0.61,0.58,0.55,0.48,0.56,0.59,0.56,0.58,0.52,0.71,0.52,0.53,0.69,0.76,0.66,0.53,0.64,0.35,0.08,0	91.9%
LAL 105, HOU 100	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.59,0.6,0.59,0.64,0.61,0.57,0.58,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.59,0.69,0.63,0.64,0.66,0.57,0.62,0.71,0.68,0.64,0.59,0.65,0.39,0.28,0.15,0.23,0	91.5%