NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	88		Excitement	5.9 [666]		MVP	JJ Redick (ORL): +9.1%
Atlanta Hawks	82		Comeback	4.5 [307]		LVP	Zaza Pachulia (ATL): -9.7%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
JJ Redick	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.04	0.04	-0.01	9	61%	0.12	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Rafer Alston	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.08	0.04	0.03	-0.01	10	58%	0.12	1	-0.04	4	50%	0.01
Rashard Lewis	0.02	0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0.03,0.03,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	14	48%	0.06	1	-0.04	5	80%	0.02
Dwight Howard	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.07	-0.01	0.03	12	58%	0.09	2	-0.07	12	75%	-0.00
Tony Battie	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.02	-0.00	2	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	-0.00	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0	-0.05	0.01	-0.03	12	40%	0.02	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.01
Anthony Johnson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.02	-0.01	6	33%	-0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Marcin Gortat	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Courtney Lee	-0.08	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.22,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.12	0.05	0.00	13	31%	0.01	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Josh Smith	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.03	0.00	15	54%	0.10	3	-0.07	5	60%	-0.01
Al Horford	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	0.00	12	52%	0.05	2	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Mario West	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Solomon Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Maurice Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.00	4	36%	-0.02	1	-0.02	6	50%	-0.04
Ronald Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.00	0.02	10	50%	0.03	4	-0.11	4	100%	0.02
Joe Johnson	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	0.00	-0.01	0.07	20	44%	-0.08	0	0.00	8	100%	0.05
Mike Bibby	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	14	43%	-0.00	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.04	0.00	1	0%	-0.06	1	-0.04	2	0%	-0.06

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	32.5	2.4	28.6	15.7	24.2	2.6	35.2	141.3
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +36.4%

ORL +4.6%

ORL +5.0%

ORL +3.2%

ORL +0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	ATL	NBA	ORL	ATL	NBA
this game	15.9	15.4	15.5	95.7	89.1	106.4
season	15.3	15.8		107.3	106.7
opponent	16.1	15.8		106.0	101.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	16.7	16.1	15.1	15.6	15.9
ATL	16.0	13.9	16.9	15.0	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
JJ Redick	42	45	0.69	-0.19	0.89	0.17	18	-12	30	15.2	16.5	-1.29	18.0	12.9	5.15
Anthony Johnson	35	36	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.16	15	-9	24	15.4	16.2	-0.79	17.1	14.3	2.79
Dwight Howard	77	77	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.27	10	-4	14	16.0	15.2	0.83	15.5	14.8	0.73
Tony Battie	24	25	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.06	16	-10	26	15.9	15.9	-0.02	17.9	14.5	3.39
Courtney Lee	69	66	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.31	-1	7	-8	16.3	14.5	1.83	14.7	17.2	-2.53
Hedo Turkoglu	73	73	0.02	0.48	-0.45	0.17	-5	11	-16	15.9	16.0	-0.14	14.4	19.2	-4.72
Rashard Lewis	68	67	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.26	-10	16	-26	15.9	15.9	0.02	14.5	17.9	-3.39
Marcin Gortat	15	15	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.05	-4	10	-14	15.2	16.0	-0.83	14.8	15.5	-0.73
Rafer Alston	57	56	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.16	-9	15	-24	16.2	15.4	0.79	14.3	17.1	-2.79

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Al Horford	73	74	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.23	7	-13	20	14.9	17.4	-2.53	16.3	14.1	2.28
Mario West	2	3	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.00	-1	-5	4	14.5	15.4	-0.93	11.0	16.1	-5.06
Maurice Evans	51	51	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.10	0	-6	6	15.8	14.9	0.88	17.6	13.8	3.76
Solomon Jones	15	13	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	0.04	-5	-1	-4	15.4	15.4	-0.02	13.5	16.3	-2.74
Mike Bibby	86	84	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.26	0	-6	6	15.2	18.8	-3.66	15.7	17.6	-1.90
Joe Johnson	79	80	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.28	-2	-4	2	15.0	17.8	-2.83	15.8	16.6	-0.80
Zaza Pachulia	11	11	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.12	-8	2	-10	19.3	14.9	4.38	14.3	16.1	-1.84
Josh Smith	85	86	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	-0.35	-6	0	-6	15.4	16.0	-0.64	16.1	13.3	2.74
Ronald Murray	58	58	-0.77	0.27	-1.03	-0.33	-15	9	-24	16.0	14.4	1.59	15.1	17.3	-2.27

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.46,0.48,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.46,0.4,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.46,0.42,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.56,0.53,0.61,0.58,0.69,0.74,0.61,0.73,0.71,0.77,0.72,0.62,0.56,0.6,0.56,0.46,0.3,0.18,0.2,0.12,0.08,0.03,0.1,0.03,0.01,0,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 96, ORL 88	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.59,0.55,0.42,0.46,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.4,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.59,0.61,0.54,0.56,0.63,0.66,0.63,0.67,0.7,0.79,0.77,0.65,0.62,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.34,0.19,0.15,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0	94.2%
UTA 110, PHI 102	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.35,0.42,0.36,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.66,0.6,0.66,0.67,0.71,0.79,0.71,0.59,0.66,0.56,0.52,0.46,0.44,0.34,0.21,0.15,0.1,0.12,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.05,0	94.1%
MEM 98, LAC 92	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.4,0.42,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.51,0.64,0.54,0.46,0.6,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.68,0.65,0.52,0.44,0.47,0.52,0.42,0.34,0.3,0.21,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0	93.0%