NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	102		Excitement	7.8 [271]		MVP	O.J. Mayo (MEM): +28.5%
Memphis Grizzlies	107		Comeback	2.4 [168]		LVP	Jason Kidd (DAL): -10.9%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jose Juan Barea	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.08	0.04	0.00	5	83%	0.12	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
James Singleton	0.07	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.00	-0.02	5	70%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Terry	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05	0.08	0.00	0.03	12	59%	0.05	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Erick Dampier	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	-0.01	0.01	3	77%	0.08	1	-0.03	7	86%	0.02
Dirk Nowitzki	0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0,0,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.11,0.19,0.23,0.25,0.25,0.3,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.37,0.2,0.04,0.04	0.13	-0.10	-0.02	26	56%	0.09	2	-0.05	10	70%	-0.05
Brandon Bass	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	-0.01	9	53%	0.04	2	-0.06	1	0%	-0.02
Antoine Wright	-0.09	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.03	-0.04	0.01	8	31%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Kidd	-0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11	-0.04	-0.07	-0.00	9	45%	-0.02	2	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
O.J. Mayo	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.29,0.29	0.29	0.05	0.21	-0.02	16	56%	0.32	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Mike Conley	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.37,0.37,0.33,0.33,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.24	0.18	0.07	0.01	16	74%	0.24	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Hakim Warrick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.00	-0.03	5	42%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Rudy Gay	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.26,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.18,0.18,0.11,0,0.01	0.01	0.15	-0.10	0.05	16	64%	0.01	0	0.00	10	80%	-0.01
Quinton Ross	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hamed Haddadi	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Buckner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Marc Gasol	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	8	59%	0.05	3	-0.06	6	50%	-0.06
Darrell Arthur	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	7	43%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Darko Milicic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Marko Jaric	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	0.01	-0.08	-0.00	8	59%	-0.00	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.0	1.8	31.1	16.4	30.3	2.4	34.5	141.5
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MEM +55.2%

DAL -22.9%

MEM +33.2%

DAL -10.6%

DAL -4.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	MEM	NBA	DAL	MEM	NBA
this game	15.3	16.8	15.5	114.6	118.9	106.4
season	15.6	16.1		108.9	101.7
opponent	15.3	15.4		107.6	107.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	14.2	17.3	15.0	15.0	15.3
MEM	15.2	16.2	19.2	17.0	16.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brandon Bass	41	40	0.31	-0.81	1.12	-0.01	11	-16	27	15.0	15.6	-0.63	16.1	17.4	-1.23
Antoine Wright	62	62	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	-0.19	6	-11	17	15.4	15.2	0.16	17.7	14.8	2.92
James Singleton	38	36	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.04	-8	3	-11	15.1	15.5	-0.40	15.7	17.6	-1.81
Jason Terry	68	69	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.34	1	-6	7	15.0	16.5	-1.55	16.5	18.0	-1.46
Jose Juan Barea	34	34	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.14	-7	2	-9	18.1	13.7	4.40	17.7	16.3	1.45
Dirk Nowitzki	75	77	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.31	-5	0	-5	15.6	13.9	1.76	17.0	16.0	0.97
Erick Dampier	59	61	-0.70	0.20	-0.91	-0.35	-12	7	-19	15.0	16.0	-1.00	16.9	16.7	0.26
Jason Kidd	68	71	-0.72	0.22	-0.94	-0.40	-11	6	-17	14.6	17.7	-3.05	16.6	17.5	-0.88

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Greg Buckner	27	27	0.55	-0.05	0.61	0.38	6	-1	7	16.8	16.9	-0.08	15.3	15.4	-0.06
O.J. Mayo	82	80	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.34	7	-2	9	16.5	20.0	-3.48	14.7	20.7	-5.93
Marc Gasol	65	64	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.29	5	0	5	16.9	16.6	0.27	14.7	16.9	-2.15
Mike Conley	71	70	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.36	1	4	-3	17.0	16.1	0.99	14.9	17.0	-2.11
Marko Jaric	39	38	0.35	0.15	0.20	-0.00	12	-7	19	16.4	17.2	-0.75	16.8	14.2	2.63
Rudy Gay	78	79	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.32	1	4	-3	16.7	17.5	-0.77	14.9	18.8	-3.90
Darko Milicic	20	20	0.13	0.37	-0.25	0.07	2	3	-1	15.9	17.1	-1.14	15.3	15.3	0.02
Darrell Arthur	27	28	0.07	0.43	-0.35	0.05	1	4	-3	18.6	16.1	2.51	16.9	14.6	2.22
Hamed Haddadi	5	4	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	0.03	-2	7	-9	18.6	16.7	1.87	14.5	15.4	-0.88
Quinton Ross	6	6	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.02	-2	7	-9	20.5	16.6	3.93	19.3	15.0	4.29
Hakim Warrick	30	29	-0.24	0.74	-0.99	-0.07	-6	11	-17	15.9	17.3	-1.45	16.5	14.8	1.70

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.55,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.37,0.39,0.4,0.37,0.42,0.34,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.32,0.31,0.31,0.33,0.41,0.44,0.5,0.52,0.55,0.51,0.58,0.7,0.68,0.65,0.62,0.52,0.4,0.4,0.46,0.38,0.47,0.33,0.47,0.53,0.6,0.73,0.56,0.55,0.43,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
SEA 94, CLE 99	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.53,0.52,0.6,0.59,0.59,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.51,0.48,0.53,0.49,0.44,0.4,0.37,0.28,0.21,0.22,0.23,0.28,0.41,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.45,0.52,0.64,0.71,0.65,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.55,0.5,0.52,0.6,0.48,0.47,0.53,0.54,0.6,0.75,0.57,0.57,0.84,1	91.2%
LAC 103, GSW 105	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.38,0.41,0.46,0.44,0.43,0.37,0.33,0.26,0.29,0.34,0.24,0.24,0.29,0.25,0.24,0.25,0.27,0.34,0.42,0.36,0.36,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.58,0.61,0.67,0.53,0.59,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.38,0.48,0.38,0.42,0.53,0.59,0.6,0.54,0.62,0.54,0.57,0.85,1	90.9%
DET 90, PHI 95	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.5,0.55,0.51,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.54,0.42,0.38,0.36,0.28,0.26,0.28,0.36,0.29,0.34,0.3,0.36,0.42,0.46,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.62,0.52,0.48,0.56,0.44,0.26,0.26,0.3,0.21,0.38,0.37,0.53,0.6,0.66,0.48,0.63,0.55,0.73,1	90.8%