NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	101		Excitement	8.1 [216]		MVP	Rashard Lewis (ORL): +44.6%
Miami Heat	95		Comeback	2.0 [606]		LVP	Hedo Turkoglu (ORL): -11.0%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rashard Lewis	0.45	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.45,0.45	0.18	0.28	0.01	12	87%	0.47	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Courtney Lee	0.14	0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.05	0.08	-0.01	7	71%	0.17	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Mickael Pietrus	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.02	0.05	-0.00	7	57%	0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	0.07	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.07	0.04	0.03	0.00	11	71%	0.23	5	-0.16	9	67%	-0.10
Marcin Gortat	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	4	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
JJ Redick	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04	-0.04	0.02	0.01	3	45%	0.00	2	-0.04	5	100%	0.04
Anthony Johnson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Tony Battie	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Rafer Alston	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.17,-0.17,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1	-0.07	-0.04	-0.01	12	43%	0.02	3	-0.12	6	67%	0.02
Hedo Turkoglu	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.01,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.11,0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.02	-0.06	0.03	10	59%	0.11	4	-0.22	7	86%	0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jamaal Magloire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.05	0.07	-0.00	5	60%	0.12	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.02
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.05,0.08	0.08	0.09	0.01	0.02	34	52%	0.11	1	-0.03	13	77%	0.02
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.01	0.07	-0.00	11	52%	0.13	2	-0.05	3	0%	-0.06
Michael Beasley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.02	-0.00	6	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.03	-0.00	2	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamario Moon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	75%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	7	43%	-0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jermaine O'Neal	0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	10	50%	0.00	4	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Luther Head	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	2	0%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Daequan Cook	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.05,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	7	29%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.8	34.6	45.6	23.2	1.7	37.2	169.4
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +74.4%

ORL +7.4%

ORL +14.8%

MIA -50.5%

ORL +3.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	MIA	NBA	ORL	MIA	NBA
this game	14.8	15.8	15.5	107.4	101.1	106.4
season	15.3	16.0		107.3	105.9
opponent	15.7	15.8		105.7	101.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	13.1	14.0	18.3	14.7	14.8
MIA	15.7	13.7	18.6	16.0	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Hedo Turkoglu	72	72	0.77	-0.27	1.04	0.24	18	-12	30	14.9	14.3	0.63	16.6	13.2	3.41
Dwight Howard	80	80	0.75	-0.25	1.00	0.34	14	-8	22	14.7	15.4	-0.74	16.3	13.1	3.25
Courtney Lee	28	29	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.36	5	1	4	17.1	13.8	3.34	17.6	15.1	2.47
Rafer Alston	69	69	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.35	4	2	2	14.6	15.4	-0.82	16.4	14.2	2.29
Rashard Lewis	72	72	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.30	4	2	2	14.5	15.7	-1.21	15.8	15.9	-0.03
Tony Battie	22	22	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.02	2	4	-2	15.7	14.5	1.21	15.9	15.8	0.03
Anthony Johnson	25	25	0.04	0.46	-0.43	-0.02	2	4	-2	15.4	14.6	0.82	14.2	16.4	-2.29
Mickael Pietrus	63	62	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	7	-8	14.1	16.2	-2.08	15.5	16.5	-1.05
Marcin Gortat	14	14	-0.25	0.75	-1.00	-0.01	-8	14	-22	15.4	14.7	0.74	13.1	16.3	-3.25
JJ Redick	25	25	-0.27	0.77	-1.05	0.02	-10	16	-26	13.5	15.3	-1.80	12.4	17.1	-4.63

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jamaal Magloire	36	36	0.04	-0.54	0.59	0.13	-3	-3	0	16.2	15.6	0.62	13.7	15.5	-1.74
Jamario Moon	36	37	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.03	-2	-4	2	17.1	15.1	2.06	15.9	14.1	1.85
Udonis Haslem	64	65	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.13	-3	-3	0	16.2	15.0	1.28	14.0	16.5	-2.44
Michael Beasley	38	37	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.25	1	-7	8	14.8	16.5	-1.68	15.7	14.2	1.49
Mario Chalmers	76	76	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.35	4	-10	14	15.9	15.4	0.56	14.8	14.8	0.02
James Jones	22	23	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	0.07	-11	5	-16	15.7	15.9	-0.21	14.0	15.1	-1.11
Luther Head	18	18	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	0.03	-10	4	-14	15.4	15.9	-0.56	14.8	14.8	-0.02
Dwyane Wade	83	81	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.39	2	-8	10	15.7	16.7	-1.00	14.3	17.9	-3.63
Daequan Cook	49	50	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.28	-3	-3	0	14.8	17.0	-2.22	14.3	15.3	-1.02
Jermaine O'Neal	48	47	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.41	-5	-1	-4	16.2	15.5	0.75	16.9	12.7	4.11

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.62,0.61,0.53,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.37,0.4,0.31,0.3,0.31,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.39,0.32,0.38,0.38,0.28,0.26,0.32,0.46,0.34,0.25,0.28,0.32,0.36,0.35,0.6,0.55,0.46,0.57,0.09,0
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 114, ORL 110	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.43,0.48,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.51,0.43,0.44,0.42,0.45,0.47,0.39,0.37,0.36,0.44,0.39,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.4,0.35,0.32,0.28,0.23,0.33,0.29,0.19,0.22,0.25,0.42,0.37,0.47,0.46,0.54,0.47,0.37,0.43,0.26,0	91.2%
SAC 116, LAC 109	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.45,0.39,0.41,0.43,0.36,0.36,0.34,0.28,0.28,0.32,0.38,0.37,0.46,0.48,0.39,0.4,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.33,0.3,0.18,0.25,0.28,0.23,0.33,0.32,0.34,0.3,0.43,0.42,0.32,0.41,0.24,0.4,0.38,0.55,0.67,0.08,0	90.7%
TOR 79, NYK 75	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.4,0.42,0.47,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.46,0.54,0.61,0.5,0.52,0.46,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.38,0.34,0.27,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.17,0.27,0.41,0.47,0.47,0.38,0.55,0.57,0.19,0	90.6%