NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Lakers	92		Excitement	4.4 [936]		MVP	Derek Fisher (LAL): +10.8%
Detroit Pistons	77		Comeback	3.4 [664]		LVP	Rodney Stuckey (DET): -15.8%

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derek Fisher	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.06	0.05	-0.01	13	52%	0.11	0	0.00	3	67%	0.00
Kobe Bryant	0.10	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.17	-0.01	0.07	18	65%	0.13	1	-0.03	10	90%	0.03
Trevor Ariza	0.01	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.03	8	50%	0.06	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Luke Walton	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.01	2	67%	0.02	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Jordan Farmar	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.03	6	33%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shannon Brown	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sasha Vujacic	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	4	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DJ Mbenga	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0.01	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pau Gasol	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.07	0.00	-0.04	10	55%	0.07	5	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Josh Powell	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.03	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Lamar Odom	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.00	-0.04	0.05	10	55%	-0.04	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.02

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Will Bynum	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.08	0.01	0.06	14	69%	0.08	4	-0.06	8	87%	0.00
Walter Herrmann	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	9	45%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Amir Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Walter Sharpe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	1	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.00
Jason Maxiell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.03	-0.02	0.01	4	56%	-0.00	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Kwame Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	0.01	0.02	4	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	14	47%	0.01	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Arron Afflalo	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	8	33%	-0.05	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.14	-0.03	-0.03	13	27%	-0.08	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Stuckey	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.12,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.14	-0.05	-0.04	8	28%	-0.06	4	-0.10	2	50%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.3	2.5	27.3	17.5	28.4	2.5	32.2	132.8
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +31.8%

LAL +4.1%

LAL +4.0%

LAL +4.2%

LAL +5.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAL	DET	NBA	LAL	DET	NBA
this game	13.9	18.3	15.5	102.2	86.5	106.4
season	14.9	16.9		110.6	104.9
opponent	15.7	15.4		106.2	102.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAL	13.9	13.6	12.6	15.5	13.9
DET	22.1	17.7	19.6	14.5	18.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kobe Bryant	70	71	0.69	-0.19	0.87	-0.11	27	-12	39	13.8	14.1	-0.26	18.8	16.4	2.33
Lamar Odom	72	72	0.67	-0.17	0.84	-0.12	27	-12	39	14.2	12.8	1.33	19.1	14.9	4.16
Pau Gasol	77	75	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.08	15	0	15	14.2	11.9	2.31	18.3	18.1	0.28
Derek Fisher	55	55	0.43	0.07	0.35	-0.13	19	-4	23	14.6	12.8	1.80	19.1	17.0	2.16
Trevor Ariza	55	54	0.40	0.10	0.29	-0.07	16	-1	17	14.5	12.9	1.57	18.2	18.5	-0.25
Luke Walton	35	35	0.10	0.40	-0.29	0.13	-1	16	-17	12.9	14.5	-1.57	18.5	18.2	0.25
Jordan Farmar	31	31	0.07	0.43	-0.35	0.13	-2	17	-19	12.1	14.9	-2.80	17.5	18.7	-1.26
Shannon Brown	4	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	17	-19	18.5	13.7	4.81	11.7	18.5	-6.87
DJ Mbenga	13	14	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	-0.02	0	15	-15	11.9	14.2	-2.31	18.1	18.3	-0.28
Sasha Vujacic	26	25	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	0.15	-10	25	-35	12.8	14.3	-1.54	16.5	19.0	-2.54
Josh Powell	12	10	-0.22	0.72	-0.94	0.19	-14	29	-43	15.0	13.7	1.27	13.8	18.9	-5.07

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Walter Herrmann	40	39	0.19	-0.69	0.87	-0.22	14	-29	43	17.7	18.8	-1.10	13.0	14.6	-1.59
Will Bynum	65	65	0.19	-0.69	0.87	-0.11	10	-25	35	16.8	22.2	-5.40	15.0	11.0	4.02
Amir Johnson	5	6	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.03	-1	-14	13	9.6	18.8	-9.22	17.8	13.6	4.21
Walter Sharpe	5	6	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.03	-1	-14	13	9.6	18.8	-9.22	17.8	13.6	4.21
Antonio McDyess	69	70	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.05	-7	-8	1	17.9	19.7	-1.80	13.4	15.5	-2.12
Jason Maxiell	45	46	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.30	1	-16	17	18.8	17.8	0.91	12.5	15.3	-2.82
Arron Afflalo	59	61	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.16	-4	-11	7	18.5	18.0	0.46	12.8	16.1	-3.30
Kwame Brown	51	51	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	0.16	-19	4	-23	19.5	16.6	2.92	15.9	11.3	4.67
Rodney Stuckey	47	48	-0.76	0.26	-1.01	0.15	-31	16	-47	19.5	17.0	2.56	14.1	13.6	0.48
Tayshaun Prince	59	58	-0.91	0.41	-1.33	0.17	-37	22	-59	19.7	15.5	4.23	13.3	15.1	-1.80

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.42,0.39,0.43,0.39,0.32,0.31,0.29,0.25,0.28,0.36,0.42,0.47,0.58,0.63,0.59,0.69,0.69,0.64,0.64,0.54,0.65,0.71,0.69,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.55,0.44,0.31,0.23,0.1,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.11,0.07,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 93, NYK 73	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.4,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.63,0.6,0.68,0.65,0.7,0.67,0.61,0.55,0.41,0.3,0.33,0.18,0.13,0.18,0.12,0.11,0.07,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	93.8%
MEM 97, IND 89	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.47,0.44,0.41,0.37,0.39,0.37,0.29,0.34,0.4,0.42,0.47,0.49,0.56,0.58,0.7,0.7,0.73,0.72,0.81,0.78,0.73,0.74,0.79,0.85,0.76,0.61,0.55,0.41,0.31,0.24,0.16,0.15,0.1,0.15,0.1,0.11,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.01,0,0,0	91.9%
MEM 105, LAC 102	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.43,0.41,0.47,0.43,0.34,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.44,0.53,0.56,0.49,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.63,0.58,0.63,0.61,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.41,0.34,0.33,0.28,0.22,0.08,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.04,0.01,0.05,0.01,0,0.01,0	91.8%