NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	106		Excitement	9.0 [126]		MVP	Roger Mason Jr. (SAS): +37.7%
San Antonio Spurs	107		Comeback	2.1 [764]		LVP	Monta Ellis (GSW): -44.3%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kelenna Azubuike	0.36	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.36	0.08	0.24	-0.04	10	65%	0.36	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ronny Turiaf	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.04	0.06	0.00	5	80%	0.14	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Morrow	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.05	0.05	0.00	4	75%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Randolph	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.03	0.03	-0.00	12	46%	0.07	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Brandan Wright	0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.01	0.04	-0.01	8	56%	0.08	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
CJ Watson	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	1	100%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Rob Kurz	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	1	25%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Stephen Jackson	-0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	17	49%	0.07	5	-0.16	3	100%	0.02
Corey Maggette	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.07,-0.12,-0.1,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.11	-0.05	-0.00	8	27%	-0.06	2	-0.10	6	67%	0.01
Monta Ellis	-0.44	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.15,0.02,-0.44	0.06	-0.48	0.02	26	49%	-0.44	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Roger Mason Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.38	0.38	0.16	0.23	0.02	16	71%	0.38	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Tony Parker	0,0,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.2,0.2,0.31,0.31,0.28,0.28	0.28	0.13	0.15	0.01	20	67%	0.36	3	-0.08	5	80%	0.03
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.06,0.11,0.17,0.22,0.28,0.23,0.23,0.3,0.3,0.16	0.16	0.12	0.05	0.01	9	68%	0.30	1	-0.14	13	85%	0.03
Matt Bonner	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.09	0.05	0.00	6	83%	0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Finley	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	-0.01	6	42%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jacque Vaughn	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ime Udoka	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Fabricio Oberto	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	8	24%	-0.04	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.03
Drew Gooden	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	4	40%	0.01	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.02
George Hill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kurt Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.11	-0.11	-0.02	-0.09	0.00	3	50%	-0.06	1	-0.05	2	0%	-0.17

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.0	1.8	28.0	15.4	26.3	2.5	37.4	138.4
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +78.7%

GSW -7.3%

GSW -15.4%

GSW -12.8%

SAS +6.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	SAS	NBA	GSW	SAS	NBA
this game	14.8	16.0	15.5	112.8	115.1	106.4
season	13.8	16.4		107.3	106.6
opponent	15.7	15.0		103.2	111.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	13.8	14.3	16.3	15.0	14.8
SAS	15.6	17.0	15.0	16.3	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anthony Randolph	53	48	0.12	-0.62	0.74	-0.20	11	-12	23	13.7	16.3	-2.53	17.0	14.8	2.22
Rob Kurz	10	8	0.07	-0.57	0.63	-0.05	4	-5	9	11.4	15.2	-3.85	16.6	15.9	0.72
Corey Maggette	41	42	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	-0.05	1	-2	3	15.7	14.2	1.58	15.6	16.2	-0.59
Anthony Morrow	30	30	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	-0.34	10	-11	21	14.1	15.2	-1.09	16.5	15.7	0.83
CJ Watson	16	17	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.32	5	-6	11	12.9	15.2	-2.37	15.6	16.0	-0.39
Brandan Wright	33	37	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	0.02	-12	11	-23	16.6	13.9	2.72	14.3	17.1	-2.77
Ronny Turiaf	49	50	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.11	-12	11	-23	15.8	13.8	2.00	15.6	16.4	-0.75
Stephen Jackson	84	84	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.50	1	-2	3	14.7	16.0	-1.30	16.1	15.0	1.07
Monta Ellis	79	76	-0.58	0.08	-0.65	-0.40	-6	5	-11	15.1	13.5	1.63	16.0	15.6	0.39
Kelenna Azubuike	75	73	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.39	-7	6	-13	14.8	15.1	-0.27	16.1	15.4	0.66

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kurt Thomas	33	34	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.75	-4	5	-9	15.3	16.3	-1.03	13.8	15.4	-1.64
Tony Parker	63	66	0.59	-0.09	0.67	0.56	1	0	1	16.3	15.2	1.08	14.6	15.3	-0.69
Bruce Bowen	54	56	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.47	-2	3	-5	16.1	15.8	0.34	14.6	15.2	-0.53
Tim Duncan	46	46	0.34	0.16	0.18	-0.01	12	-11	23	16.3	15.7	0.58	15.9	13.8	2.10
Michael Finley	52	51	0.23	0.27	-0.05	0.29	-2	3	-5	16.3	15.6	0.68	15.1	14.6	0.48
Roger Mason Jr.	66	67	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.23	-1	2	-3	16.6	14.5	2.04	15.4	13.5	1.91
Matt Bonner	43	45	0.17	0.33	-0.16	-0.10	9	-8	17	15.4	16.5	-1.06	15.3	14.4	0.82
Jacque Vaughn	4	3	0.08	0.42	-0.33	0.02	2	-1	3	14.7	16.0	-1.27	15.0	14.8	0.16
George Hill	16	16	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.01	1	0	1	16.7	15.8	0.94	14.7	14.9	-0.11
Ime Udoka	50	48	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.09	-3	4	-7	14.5	17.6	-3.09	14.1	15.7	-1.59
Drew Gooden	18	19	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	-0.00	-3	4	-7	14.8	16.2	-1.41	14.3	15.0	-0.66
Fabricio Oberto	20	19	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.04	-5	6	-11	17.6	15.5	2.08	14.5	14.9	-0.46

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.59,0.63,0.62,0.63,0.6,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.57,0.49,0.53,0.5,0.58,0.63,0.7,0.61,0.61,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.52,0.48,0.61,0.65,0.62,0.69,0.6,0.56,0.68,0.54,0.62,0.47,0.42,0.37,0.41,0.41,0.67,0.75,0.9,0.84,0.84,1
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 79, DAL 88	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.62,0.64,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.59,0.57,0.62,0.6,0.57,0.6,0.55,0.53,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.59,0.58,0.56,0.6,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.57,0.65,0.66,0.79,0.74,0.64,0.58,0.57,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.54,0.8,0.79,0.91,1,1	93.0%
NJN 81, DAL 92	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.63,0.59,0.61,0.65,0.61,0.58,0.56,0.5,0.55,0.56,0.55,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.5,0.52,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.53,0.62,0.65,0.62,0.59,0.6,0.75,0.62,0.63,0.48,0.52,0.47,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.53,0.84,0.89,0.99,1	92.6%
ORL 98, DAL 103	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.61,0.61,0.59,0.61,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.55,0.64,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.63,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.42,0.46,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.58,0.48,0.59,0.52,0.44,0.6,0.62,0.52,0.38,0.29,0.28,0.36,0.46,0.54,0.68,0.79,0.68,0.91,1	92.3%