NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	88		Excitement	6.3 [572]		MVP	Jarvis Hayes (NJN): +26.8%
New Jersey Nets	96		Comeback	1.1 [657]		LVP	Mario Chalmers (MIA): -6.7%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Beasley	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.11	0.04	0.01	11	71%	0.14	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jermaine O'Neal	0.03	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.06	-0.01	0.03	12	54%	0.03	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Daequan Cook	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	7	36%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamaal Magloire	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.09,0.06,0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.06	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Yakhouba Diawara	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.02	-0.00	6	31%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Dwyane Wade	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	21	48%	0.01	2	-0.05	14	64%	-0.05
Jamario Moon	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Jones	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Luther Head	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.00	-0.00	6	17%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	-0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	9	56%	0.04	3	-0.11	0	0%	0.00

New Jersey Nets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jarvis Hayes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.18,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.2,0.27,0.27	0.27	0.14	0.13	-0.00	12	75%	0.27	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Douglas-Roberts	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.16	0.07	0.03	6	95%	0.23	1	-0.02	7	100%	0.04
Bobby Simmons	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.04	-0.00	3	50%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Trenton Hassell	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	0.00	0.00	5	58%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Keyon Dooling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	9	56%	0.07	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Josh Boone	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0.00	1	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.06
Brook Lopez	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.07	0.03	-0.01	13	44%	0.06	3	-0.08	8	87%	0.04
Yi Jianlian	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.01	-0.01	7	37%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Vince Carter	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.07	-0.01	-0.03	18	40%	0.01	2	-0.05	6	83%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.5	28.4	15.4	27.3	2.5	34.6	134.9
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NJN +40.7%

NJN +9.9%

MIA -4.3%

NJN +3.0%

NJN +0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	NJN	NBA	MIA	NJN	NBA
this game	16.0	16.7	15.5	100.0	109.1	106.4
season	16.0	16.0		105.9	106.5
opponent	15.5	15.7		108.9	105.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.5	17.0	15.5	15.0	16.0
NJN	15.5	15.7	17.9	17.7	16.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Yakhouba Diawara	30	30	0.24	-0.74	0.99	-0.08	11	-19	30	15.4	16.4	-1.01	18.0	16.0	1.93
Jamaal Magloire	26	25	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.02	2	-10	12	16.4	15.9	0.55	16.2	16.9	-0.63
Jamario Moon	21	21	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	-0.01	-1	-7	6	16.2	16.0	0.27	17.1	16.6	0.59
Michael Beasley	50	47	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.16	1	-9	10	15.9	16.2	-0.26	16.8	16.6	0.25
James Jones	16	16	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	0.06	-8	0	-8	17.9	15.6	2.25	14.3	17.2	-2.91
Luther Head	31	32	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.18	-1	-7	6	15.8	16.2	-0.40	17.1	16.4	0.68
Mario Chalmers	61	60	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.12	-6	-2	-4	16.4	15.2	1.17	16.6	16.9	-0.35
Udonis Haslem	46	48	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.14	-10	2	-12	15.7	16.5	-0.80	16.5	16.9	-0.42
Jermaine O'Neal	54	56	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.21	-9	1	-10	16.3	15.6	0.63	17.0	16.2	0.75
Daequan Cook	33	32	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.11	-13	5	-18	16.1	16.0	0.09	16.7	16.7	-0.06
Dwyane Wade	72	73	-0.53	0.03	-0.57	-0.36	-6	-2	-4	15.6	17.9	-2.25	16.5	17.7	-1.25

New Jersey Nets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Keyon Dooling	70	68	0.73	-0.23	0.96	0.29	15	-7	22	16.7	16.6	0.10	16.1	15.6	0.50
Brook Lopez	59	58	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.28	12	-4	16	16.5	17.0	-0.46	16.1	16.0	0.05
Chris Douglas-Roberts	49	50	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.19	8	0	8	16.9	16.4	0.46	15.7	16.5	-0.82
Jarvis Hayes	50	49	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.22	3	5	-2	17.2	16.1	1.08	15.7	16.5	-0.81
Bobby Simmons	17	19	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.15	5	3	2	16.9	16.6	0.23	17.6	15.6	2.04
Vince Carter	72	73	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.03	3	5	-2	16.2	19.1	-2.97	15.5	18.6	-3.09
Trenton Hassell	60	58	0.09	0.41	-0.31	0.15	-2	10	-12	16.5	17.1	-0.66	15.8	16.5	-0.66
Yi Jianlian	35	35	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.03	0	8	-8	17.2	16.4	0.79	17.4	15.1	2.32
Josh Boone	28	30	-0.13	0.63	-0.77	-0.02	-4	12	-16	16.9	16.6	0.29	16.0	16.1	-0.05

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.56,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.66,0.68,0.64,0.74,0.7,0.8,0.82,0.77,0.77,0.78,0.87,0.88,0.84,0.77,0.73,0.79,0.81,0.79,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.57,0.63,0.64,0.85,0.93,0.93,0.95,0.85,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 88, NYK 101	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.59,0.56,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.68,0.67,0.63,0.68,0.73,0.76,0.81,0.77,0.82,0.73,0.71,0.72,0.75,0.77,0.79,0.79,0.77,0.75,0.76,0.7,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.57,0.67,0.68,0.79,0.81,0.87,0.86,0.95,0.98,1,1	93.9%
CLE 93, DET 103	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.45,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.66,0.58,0.65,0.63,0.58,0.68,0.78,0.8,0.75,0.78,0.75,0.81,0.82,0.85,0.89,0.86,0.77,0.83,0.81,0.69,0.67,0.68,0.66,0.62,0.48,0.58,0.63,0.74,0.88,0.95,0.98,0.96,0.99,1,1	93.7%
MEM 90, SAS 97	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.62,0.63,0.57,0.59,0.6,0.53,0.55,0.63,0.62,0.56,0.62,0.73,0.8,0.82,0.77,0.78,0.79,0.79,0.8,0.75,0.79,0.72,0.78,0.76,0.84,0.79,0.74,0.76,0.79,0.74,0.71,0.7,0.7,0.62,0.57,0.68,0.78,0.88,0.96,0.95,0.99,0.99,1,1	93.4%