NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	88		Excitement	5.9 [377]		MVP	Clar. Weatherspoon (MIA): +19.6%
New York Knicks	101		Comeback	1.0 [536]		LVP	Rick Brunson (NYK): -17.4%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Clar. Weatherspoon	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.13	0.07	0.01	9	100%	0.26	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Mashburn	0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.02	-0.00	4	81%	0.09	2	-0.04	8	100%	0.05
Terry Porter	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.03	0.02	5	67%	0.07	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
P.J. Brown	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	7	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Blue Edwards	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	4	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Rex Walters	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11	-0.12	-0.04	-0.05	3	60%	0.01	6	-0.13	4	100%	0.03
Voshon Lenard	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.02	-0.09	0.03	15	40%	-0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Duane Causwell	-0.15	0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.09,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.07	-0.08	0.00	9	56%	-0.01	5	-0.14	0	0%	0.00

New York Knicks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marcus Camby	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.24,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.11	0.07	0.00	15	73%	0.24	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Latrell Sprewell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.06	0.09	-0.01	14	58%	0.15	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.02
Kurt Thomas	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.04	-0.00	15	59%	0.10	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Larry Johnson	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.01	0.01	8	65%	0.06	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
David Wingate	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	0.01	2	100%	0.02	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Charlie Ward	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	0.02	5	47%	-0.05	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.02
Allan Houston	0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.00	0.00	12	42%	-0.02	3	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Chris Dudley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.09	-0.02	0.00	6	33%	-0.02	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Rick Brunson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.18	-0.04	-0.05	4	0%	-0.15	3	-0.03	4	0%	-0.08

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.8	2.8	28.2	17.5	23.9	1.8	29.2	128.2
league avg	26.9	3.0	42.0	16.0	26.3	2.2	45.7	163.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NYK +24.8%

MIA -16.9%

NYK +6.9%

NYK +34.6%

NYK +0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	NYK	NBA	MIA	NYK	NBA
this game	16.5	15.9	15.8	98.9	113.5	99.6
season	16.6	16.0		101.3	97.0
opponent	16.6	16.7		95.1	96.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.8	16.5	17.3	16.4	16.5
NYK	15.5	17.8	16.2	14.2	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jamal Mashburn	57	57	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.01	-1	-12	11	16.2	17.1	-0.90	15.9	15.8	0.05
Clar. Weatherspoon	49	49	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.02	-1	-12	11	16.8	16.1	0.65	15.0	17.0	-2.00
P.J. Brown	27	26	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.00	-2	-11	9	17.0	16.2	0.80	17.5	15.2	2.35
Blue Edwards	17	18	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	0.02	-6	-7	1	16.7	16.4	0.28	14.9	16.1	-1.24
Terry Porter	43	45	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.09	-8	-5	-3	16.4	16.6	-0.21	15.3	16.4	-1.10
Voshon Lenard	65	63	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.16	-10	-3	-7	16.7	16.0	0.72	16.3	14.8	1.56
Rex Walters	85	84	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.11	-14	1	-15	16.6	14.7	1.81	16.0	13.4	2.62
Duane Causwell	47	47	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	-0.07	-16	3	-19	16.2	16.8	-0.66	16.6	15.1	1.52

New York Knicks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Dudley	53	54	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.19	13	0	13	16.4	15.1	1.29	17.0	15.7	1.31
David Wingate	46	45	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.13	13	0	13	15.6	16.2	-0.64	16.4	16.6	-0.26
Rick Brunson	43	44	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.10	14	-1	15	15.4	16.3	-0.84	16.6	16.4	0.21
Marcus Camby	69	68	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.20	5	8	-3	15.7	16.4	-0.68	16.1	17.9	-1.80
Latrell Sprewell	54	53	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.23	2	11	-9	16.0	15.7	0.36	16.8	16.0	0.81
Larry Johnson	29	30	0.10	0.40	-0.30	-0.02	4	9	-5	17.0	15.3	1.67	16.9	16.3	0.58
Charlie Ward	58	59	0.08	0.42	-0.35	-0.10	6	7	-1	15.2	17.2	-2.07	15.9	17.6	-1.74
Kurt Thomas	46	45	0.04	0.46	-0.41	-0.04	3	10	-7	16.0	15.7	0.30	17.2	15.7	1.45
Allan Houston	41	41	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.01	0	13	-13	16.6	15.2	1.40	16.5	16.4	0.10

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.59,0.56,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.68,0.67,0.63,0.68,0.73,0.76,0.81,0.77,0.82,0.73,0.71,0.72,0.75,0.77,0.79,0.79,0.77,0.75,0.76,0.7,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.57,0.67,0.68,0.79,0.81,0.87,0.86,0.95,0.98,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 90, SAS 97	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.62,0.63,0.57,0.59,0.6,0.53,0.55,0.63,0.62,0.56,0.62,0.73,0.8,0.82,0.77,0.78,0.79,0.79,0.8,0.75,0.79,0.72,0.78,0.76,0.84,0.79,0.74,0.76,0.79,0.74,0.71,0.7,0.7,0.62,0.57,0.68,0.78,0.88,0.96,0.95,0.99,0.99,1,1	94.5%
CLE 81, CHI 96	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.53,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.57,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.71,0.65,0.66,0.7,0.78,0.76,0.79,0.82,0.75,0.71,0.77,0.75,0.85,0.79,0.77,0.68,0.72,0.7,0.74,0.75,0.66,0.57,0.57,0.52,0.63,0.79,0.65,0.78,0.83,0.97,1,1,1	94.3%
CLE 93, DET 103	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.45,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.66,0.58,0.65,0.63,0.58,0.68,0.78,0.8,0.75,0.78,0.75,0.81,0.82,0.85,0.89,0.86,0.77,0.83,0.81,0.69,0.67,0.68,0.66,0.62,0.48,0.58,0.63,0.74,0.88,0.95,0.98,0.96,0.99,1,1	94.0%