NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	99		Excitement	6.6 [493]		MVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): +27.1%
Miami Heat	107		Comeback	1.8 [699]		LVP	Stephon Marbury (BOS): -14.1%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Leon Powe	0.09	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.11	0.01	0.02	14	57%	0.09	0	0.00	12	75%	0.02
Eddie House	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,0.01,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.09	0.01	0.09	0.01	9	60%	0.16	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Henry Walker	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.03	-0.00	3	67%	0.06	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.01
Ray Allen	0.03	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.09,0.14,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.11	-0.06	0.02	18	71%	0.15	4	-0.12	2	100%	0.01
Kendrick Perkins	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	10	54%	0.09	2	-0.07	4	75%	-0.01
Paul Pierce	0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.01	0.00	10	59%	0.10	4	-0.09	7	71%	-0.01
Gabe Pruitt	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mikki Moore	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.07	-0.04	-0.00	3	0%	-0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Stephon Marbury	-0.14	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.02	-0.01	6	0%	-0.10	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.05,0.18,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.27	0.27	0.13	0.17	0.02	20	57%	0.30	1	-0.03	16	81%	0.04
Jamario Moon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.17,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.10	-0.00	-0.01	9	72%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.08	0.03	0.01	6	83%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jermaine O'Neal	0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	-0.00	0.09	0.01	9	55%	0.12	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.04
Daequan Cook	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.03	0.04	-0.01	10	50%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.00	0.00	4	75%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Yakhouba Diawara	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.01	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamaal Magloire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	100%	0.02	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	9	50%	0.01	4	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Michael Beasley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.08	-0.02	-0.00	9	44%	0.00	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.2	3.3	29.5	16.7	24.3	2.5	37.2	143.7
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +28.3%

MIA +4.1%

MIA +0.7%

MIA +18.4%

BOS -1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	MIA	NBA	BOS	MIA	NBA
this game	15.1	16.9	15.5	110.0	118.9	106.4
season	15.8	16.0		108.3	105.9
opponent	15.7	15.6		105.7	101.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	14.0	15.9	15.5	15.1	15.1
MIA	14.8	18.4	14.5	20.9	16.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Henry Walker	28	28	0.19	-0.69	0.88	-0.16	12	-20	32	14.2	15.5	-1.27	16.3	17.2	-0.91
Gabe Pruitt	11	12	0.09	-0.59	0.69	-0.05	5	-13	18	16.2	14.9	1.25	18.5	16.7	1.83
Mikki Moore	35	35	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	-0.07	2	-10	12	13.9	15.8	-1.92	16.2	17.3	-1.12
Stephon Marbury	46	45	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	0.06	-10	2	-12	15.4	14.7	0.71	16.2	17.7	-1.51
Eddie House	45	47	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.29	0	-8	8	14.7	15.4	-0.71	17.7	16.0	1.74
Paul Pierce	75	76	-0.53	0.03	-0.57	-0.24	-10	2	-12	14.7	17.1	-2.45	17.6	13.1	4.46
Ray Allen	78	76	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.14	-14	6	-20	15.3	13.4	1.93	16.1	21.1	-5.01
Leon Powe	79	81	-0.57	0.07	-0.63	-0.33	-8	0	-8	15.4	12.9	2.48	17.0	16.4	0.52
Kendrick Perkins	53	50	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.10	-17	9	-26	15.8	14.0	1.85	17.3	16.4	0.88

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Udonis Haslem	58	57	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.18	14	-6	20	16.2	18.3	-2.13	14.6	15.8	-1.20
Dwyane Wade	69	69	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.17	13	-5	18	16.5	18.2	-1.67	15.0	15.2	-0.19
Jamario Moon	51	53	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.22	8	0	8	18.0	15.5	2.51	15.4	14.7	0.66
Jermaine O'Neal	59	59	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.21	4	4	0	17.6	15.6	1.93	14.6	16.0	-1.34
Mario Chalmers	72	73	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.20	4	4	0	17.4	15.1	2.25	15.2	14.5	0.69
Jamaal Magloire	21	22	0.17	0.33	-0.15	0.06	4	4	0	17.5	16.7	0.74	16.6	14.6	2.05
Daequan Cook	39	38	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.17	-1	9	-10	16.8	17.0	-0.25	14.9	15.2	-0.29
Yakhouba Diawara	14	14	0.04	0.46	-0.41	-0.07	4	4	0	13.4	17.6	-4.21	12.6	15.5	-2.90
James Jones	25	23	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.12	-4	12	-16	16.7	17.0	-0.32	16.0	14.8	1.17
Michael Beasley	42	42	-0.10	0.60	-0.69	0.08	-6	14	-20	16.7	17.1	-0.32	15.5	14.7	0.82

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.39,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.39,0.39,0.37,0.45,0.6,0.61,0.64,0.52,0.48,0.62,0.65,0.7,0.77,0.87,0.85,0.9,0.88,0.97,0.96,0.9,0.88,0.73,0.75,0.85,0.94,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
OKC 115, GSW 116	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.5,0.45,0.39,0.41,0.49,0.53,0.44,0.48,0.44,0.42,0.4,0.38,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.65,0.62,0.63,0.77,0.87,0.85,0.94,0.96,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.9,0.83,0.74,0.91,0.84,1	93.2%
LAL 87, MIA 89	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.59,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.5,0.44,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.44,0.39,0.32,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.5,0.48,0.48,0.58,0.48,0.55,0.52,0.59,0.52,0.63,0.67,0.83,0.92,0.93,0.93,0.92,0.81,0.87,0.85,0.82,0.81,0.89,0.91,0.95,1	93.1%
NYK 108, DET 114	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.62,0.62,0.61,0.55,0.53,0.39,0.41,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.35,0.44,0.43,0.48,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.62,0.58,0.66,0.83,0.93,0.92,0.87,0.88,0.92,0.91,0.9,0.85,0.67,0.75,0.89,0.98,0.98,1	92.8%