NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	99		Excitement	9.4 [103]		MVP	Francisco Garcia (SAC): +28.3%
Sacramento Kings	98		Comeback	1.8 [485]		LVP	Jeff Green (OKC): -33.4%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Thabo Sefolosha	0.17	0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.17	0.08	0.08	-0.01	11	63%	0.18	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.04
Kyle Weaver	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.01	0.00	4	78%	0.07	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Damien Wilkins	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	7	36%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Rose	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	8	55%	0.03	2	-0.05	4	75%	-0.01
Robert Swift	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nenad Krstic	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.13,-0.13,-0.26,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14	-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	10	39%	0.02	3	-0.17	3	100%	0.02
Russell Westbrook	-0.15	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.16,-0.16,-0.15	-0.07	-0.12	-0.04	20	54%	0.04	7	-0.20	1	100%	0.01
Earl Watson	-0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.08	-0.14	-0.00	8	37%	-0.12	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Green	-0.33	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.02,-0.19,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.33	-0.03	-0.29	0.01	13	63%	0.10	7	-0.44	9	100%	0.05

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Francisco Garcia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.28	0.28	0.16	0.12	0.00	7	112%	0.37	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Rashad McCants	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.09	-0.02	0.04	5	87%	0.12	2	-0.09	5	60%	-0.04
Kevin Martin	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	11	44%	-0.01	2	-0.06	5	80%	0.00
Will Solomon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.07	0.00	7	43%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Thompson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.10	-0.04	0.00	8	41%	-0.01	5	-0.14	1	100%	0.01
Andres Nocioni	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.06,-0.13,-0.23	-0.23	-0.02	-0.22	-0.00	17	46%	-0.18	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Spencer Hawes	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.09,-0.18,-0.18,-0.24,-0.24	-0.24	-0.07	-0.17	-0.00	19	53%	0.04	6	-0.27	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Jackson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.16,-0.25	-0.25	-0.10	-0.16	-0.01	9	33%	-0.12	3	-0.13	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.1	2.5	31.5	16.3	25.5	2.7	39.0	143.5
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC -3.3%

OKC +16.6%

OKC +44.9%

SAC -17.5%

OKC +9.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	SAC	NBA	OKC	SAC	NBA
this game	15.2	13.6	15.5	98.0	99.0	106.4
season	14.9	15.0		100.5	104.0
opponent	15.1	15.1		112.7	106.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
OKC	13.9	15.9	13.3	18.0	15.2
SAC	13.2	14.1	14.3	12.6	13.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Thabo Sefolosha	87	87	0.74	-0.24	0.98	0.45	10	-9	19	15.0	16.3	-1.26	13.7	12.8	0.86
Earl Watson	58	56	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.45	2	-1	3	16.5	13.5	3.02	13.5	13.7	-0.24
Nenad Krstic	71	70	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.35	2	-1	3	14.8	16.2	-1.38	12.9	15.3	-2.39
Russell Westbrook	80	80	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.44	-3	4	-7	15.1	15.5	-0.35	13.7	12.9	0.86
Jeff Green	78	76	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.46	-7	8	-15	14.9	16.1	-1.15	13.2	14.7	-1.45
Malik Rose	42	40	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.11	2	-1	3	16.1	14.6	1.54	14.3	13.1	1.16
Kyle Weaver	53	51	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.03	4	-3	7	13.4	17.1	-3.71	14.3	12.8	1.46
Damien Wilkins	23	22	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	0.05	-2	3	-5	16.7	14.8	1.88	13.2	13.7	-0.46
Robert Swift	13	13	-0.06	0.56	-0.63	0.02	-3	4	-7	16.6	15.0	1.63	13.8	13.6	0.21

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Will Solomon	41	42	0.27	-0.77	1.04	0.07	7	-8	15	13.3	13.8	-0.50	17.7	13.4	4.23
Rashad McCants	35	37	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.52	14	-15	29	13.6	13.6	0.02	17.2	14.0	3.23
Jason Thompson	63	63	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.02	-7	6	-13	13.6	13.6	0.05	13.7	17.8	-4.11
Kevin Martin	68	68	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	0.01	-12	11	-23	13.7	13.4	0.24	14.5	16.7	-2.27
Spencer Hawes	80	83	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.41	1	-2	3	13.8	12.7	1.05	15.3	14.5	0.85
Francisco Garcia	58	61	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.53	2	-3	5	13.7	13.5	0.17	16.6	13.1	3.43
Andres Nocioni	91	92	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.45	-2	1	-3	13.4	15.2	-1.81	14.9	17.8	-2.83
Bobby Jackson	59	59	-0.73	0.23	-0.96	-0.50	-8	7	-15	13.6	13.6	-0.07	13.4	17.7	-4.23

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.44,0.36,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.38,0.39,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.38,0.48,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.36,0.36,0.39,0.54,0.46,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.39,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.38,0.31,0.27,0.26,0.22,0.19,0.3,0.47,0.38,0.42,0.47,0.41,0.54,0.62,0.64,0.24,0.09,0
Game		Similarity Score
IND 80, CHI 76	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.49,0.43,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.45,0.4,0.45,0.42,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.42,0.44,0.47,0.42,0.46,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.41,0.31,0.27,0.2,0.29,0.3,0.26,0.3,0.38,0.47,0.64,0.54,0.72,0.81,0.66,0.33,0.26,0	91.2%
ATL 114, ORL 110	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.43,0.48,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.51,0.43,0.44,0.42,0.45,0.47,0.39,0.37,0.36,0.44,0.39,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.4,0.35,0.32,0.28,0.23,0.33,0.29,0.19,0.22,0.25,0.42,0.37,0.47,0.46,0.54,0.47,0.37,0.43,0.26,0	91.1%
DAL 110, WAS 103	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.38,0.42,0.51,0.55,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.4,0.47,0.44,0.49,0.39,0.34,0.31,0.36,0.33,0.41,0.49,0.32,0.43,0.39,0.36,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.34,0.3,0.28,0.3,0.38,0.34,0.24,0.37,0.41,0.41,0.46,0.39,0.45,0.24,0.02,0	90.9%