NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	110		Excitement	7.8 [266]		MVP	Courtney Alexander (WAS): +28.9%
Washington Wizards	103		Comeback	1.2 [802]		LVP	Christian Laettner (WAS): -10.1%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Steve Nash	0.21	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.07,0.02,0.08,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.08,0.19,0.21	0.04	0.19	0.01	15	63%	0.35	3	-0.14	5	80%	-0.01
Nick Van Exel	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.06	0.07	0.01	11	67%	0.15	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Wang Zhi-zhi	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.06	0.04	0.00	3	117%	0.11	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Adrian Griffin	0.09	0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.03	0.06	-0.01	12	54%	0.09	0	0.00	4	100%	0.05
Michael Finley	0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.03	0.04	-0.01	9	62%	0.10	1	-0.02	6	67%	0.02
Dirk Nowitzki	0.02	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02	0.06	-0.03	0.01	14	68%	0.11	3	-0.09	6	100%	0.06
Eduardo Najera	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Buckner	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Raef LaFrentz	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	0.01	8	50%	0.02	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Courtney Alexander	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.29,0.29	0.29	0.11	0.17	-0.01	10	75%	0.29	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Tyrone Nesby	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.05	0.06	0.00	6	67%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Whitney	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.10	0.01	0.00	9	72%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Popeye Jones	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.01	0.00	8	62%	0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kwame Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	6	43%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Tyronn Lue	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	5	40%	-0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Richard Hamilton	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.09,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	0.00	-0.12	-0.03	22	49%	-0.05	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.02
Michael Jordan	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.05,0.03,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.11	0.03	-0.00	14	33%	0.00	2	-0.09	2	100%	0.02
Christian Laettner	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.1	-0.10	0.01	-0.09	0.02	9	55%	-0.10	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.7	29.1	19.5	25.3	2.6	38.4	141.8
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +53.2%

DAL +13.8%

WAS -0.5%

WAS -17.0%

DAL +0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	WAS	NBA	DAL	WAS	NBA
this game	14.0	17.5	15.6	119.6	113.2	102.3
season	14.8	16.5		109.6	102.2
opponent	15.3	15.5		103.9	105.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	13.5	13.2	15.9	13.5	14.0
WAS	19.2	17.5	16.8	16.5	17.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Finley	83	83	0.65	-0.15	0.81	0.30	12	-5	17	14.0	14.4	-0.48	17.5	17.5	-0.02
Dirk Nowitzki	86	85	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.20	13	-6	19	13.8	16.8	-3.02	17.5	17.2	0.34
Adrian Griffin	65	64	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.28	8	-1	9	14.0	14.0	-0.04	17.4	17.7	-0.26
Steve Nash	72	70	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.30	3	4	-1	14.1	13.6	0.46	17.9	16.2	1.68
Nick Van Exel	52	52	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.21	3	4	-1	13.4	14.8	-1.48	16.4	18.9	-2.47
Raef LaFrentz	60	60	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.06	4	3	1	13.8	14.4	-0.65	18.1	16.2	1.96
Wang Zhi-zhi	12	12	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.15	-5	12	-17	18.3	13.4	4.97	17.4	17.5	-0.08
Greg Buckner	22	21	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.05	-3	10	-13	13.9	14.0	-0.13	16.1	17.9	-1.74
Eduardo Najera	8	8	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	-0.07	0	7	-7	15.5	13.9	1.63	20.0	17.2	2.76

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyronn Lue	32	33	0.05	-0.55	0.60	0.05	0	-7	7	15.7	18.5	-2.82	13.1	14.5	-1.43
Chris Whitney	49	50	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	-0.11	2	-9	11	18.1	16.7	1.43	14.1	13.9	0.24
Popeye Jones	52	51	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.07	-2	-5	3	17.8	17.0	0.80	14.0	14.0	0.02
Courtney Alexander	58	59	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.23	0	-7	7	17.4	17.6	-0.14	14.5	13.2	1.25
Christian Laettner	71	71	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.25	0	-7	7	17.6	17.0	0.62	14.0	14.0	0.08
Kwame Brown	33	35	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.07	-9	2	-11	17.9	17.2	0.72	14.3	13.8	0.49
Tyrone Nesby	38	38	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.16	-11	4	-15	17.1	17.8	-0.69	14.1	14.0	0.12
Michael Jordan	53	54	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.29	-8	1	-9	17.1	18.0	-0.89	13.9	14.2	-0.25
Richard Hamilton	69	69	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.35	-7	0	-7	17.8	16.5	1.30	13.9	14.5	-0.62

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.38,0.42,0.51,0.55,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.4,0.47,0.44,0.49,0.39,0.34,0.31,0.36,0.33,0.41,0.49,0.32,0.43,0.39,0.36,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.34,0.3,0.28,0.3,0.38,0.34,0.24,0.37,0.41,0.41,0.46,0.39,0.45,0.24,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
DET 100, SAC 94	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.43,0.34,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.29,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.37,0.32,0.43,0.42,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.38,0.31,0.33,0.36,0.38,0.34,0.21,0.29,0.37,0.41,0.35,0.34,0.19,0.21,0.15,0.08,0	92.4%
SAS 100, SAC 93	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.51,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.36,0.35,0.34,0.38,0.35,0.4,0.37,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.46,0.39,0.35,0.42,0.37,0.46,0.33,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.37,0.28,0.34,0.3,0.33,0.42,0.47,0.41,0.47,0.53,0.38,0.54,0.22,0,0	92.3%
CHI 91, UTA 86	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.5,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.37,0.33,0.39,0.47,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.4,0.35,0.32,0.36,0.39,0.36,0.4,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.51,0.48,0.39,0.42,0.48,0.55,0.41,0.29,0.25,0.26,0.26,0.33,0.28,0.32,0.41,0.34,0.39,0.47,0.36,0.16,0.27,0	92.3%